skip to main content


Title: High‐Resolution Modeling of ENSO‐Induced Precipitation in the Tropical Andes: Implications for Proxy Interpretation
Abstract

Sediment records from Lake Pallcacocha, Ecuador, have been interpreted as proxies of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, owing to increased precipitation in the area during El Niño events. However, the lake's watershed receives precipitation from processes arising from both the eastern and western Andes, where ENSO has different impacts; this has led to ambiguity in observed regional ENSO signals and has consequently challenged the suitability of the lake's records as ENSO proxies. Here, a mesoscale weather prediction model is used to investigate the regional circulation dynamics and precipitation response during different ENSO events, namely, Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP), coastal El Niño (COA), and La Niña (LN). The region receives more accumulated precipitation during COA and LN compared to EP and CP events. However, during EP and COA events, the region is prone to extreme precipitation associated with convective bursts originating from the Pacific. During CP and LN, moisture originates from the Atlantic and may reach the area as broader‐scale less‐intense precipitation. Statistical analysis of modeled precipitation reveals consistency between the number of threshold‐exceeding precipitation events in the high Andean elevations and the number of events identified in the late Holocene Pallcacocha record. These results illustrate the importance of considering ENSO flavors when interpreting paleoclimate proxies, highlight the role of COA events in understanding eastern Pacific proxy records, and support the hypothesis that Holocene changes in the number of events recorded in the lake sediment may indicate a change in the relative frequency of ENSO flavors.

 
more » « less
NSF-PAR ID:
10459303
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  
Publisher / Repository:
DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
Volume:
34
Issue:
2
ISSN:
2572-4517
Page Range / eLocation ID:
p. 217-236
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract

    Atmospheric blocking events are persistent quasi‐stationary geopotential height anomalies that divert the jet stream from its climatological path in the mid‐ to high‐latitudes. Previous studies have found that different phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence the characteristics of blocking, but none have considered the spatial diversity of El Niño. In this study, we examine Northern Hemisphere blocking events with respect to the “Central Pacific” (CP) and “Eastern Pacific” (EP) flavors of El Niño in 83 years of ERA5 reanalysis. The two El Niño flavors have dissimilar patterns of forcing on atmospheric circulation that impact the strength and placement of the upper‐level jet stream, thus affecting blocking event frequency and duration. Significant contrasts in blocking characteristics between CP and EP years are disregarded when a single ENSO index is used, and we emphasize that El Niño flavors should be considered in future investigations of blocking and ENSO‐related variability.

     
    more » « less
  2. Abstract

    The La Niña and El Niño phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have major impacts on regional rainfall patterns around the globe, with substantial environmental, societal and economic implications. Long-term perspectives on ENSO behaviour, under changing background conditions, are essential to anticipating how ENSO phases may respond under future climate scenarios. Here, we derive a 7700-year, quantitative precipitation record using carbon isotope ratios from a single species of leaf preserved in lake sediments from subtropical eastern Australia. We find a generally wet (more La Niña-like) mid-Holocene that shifted towards drier and more variable climates after 3200 cal. yr BP, primarily driven by increasing frequency and strength of the El Niño phase. Climate model simulations implicate a progressive orbitally-driven weakening of the Pacific Walker Circulation as contributing to this change. At centennial scales, high rainfall characterised the Little Ice Age (~1450–1850 CE) in subtropical eastern Australia, contrasting with oceanic proxies that suggest El Niño-like conditions prevail during this period. Our data provide a new western Pacific perspective on Holocene ENSO variability and highlight the need to address ENSO reconstruction with a geographically diverse network of sites to characterise how both ENSO, and its impacts, vary in a changing climate.

     
    more » « less
  3. Abstract Previous studies have shown that nonlinear atmospheric interactions between ENSO and the warm pool annual cycle generates a combination mode (C-mode), which is responsible for the termination of strong El Niño events and the development of the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP). However, the C-mode has experienced a remarkable decadal change in its characteristics around the early 2000s. The C-mode in both pre- and post-2000 exhibits its characteristic anomalous atmospheric circulation meridional asymmetry but with somewhat different spatial structures and time scales. During 1979–99, the C-mode pattern featured prominent westerly surface wind anomalies in the southeastern tropical Pacific and anticyclonic anomalies over the WNP. In contrast, the C-mode-associated westerly anomalies were shifted farther westward to the central Pacific and the WNP anticyclone was farther westward extended and weaker after 2000. These different C-mode patterns were accompanied by distinct climate impacts over the Indo-Pacific region. The decadal differences of the C-mode are tightly connected with the ENSO regime shift around 2000; that is, the occurrence of central Pacific (CP) El Niño events with quasi-biennial and decadal periodicities increased while the occurrence of eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events with quasi-quadrennial periodicity decreased. The associated near-annual combination tone periodicities of the C-mode also changed in accordance with these changes in the dominant ENSO frequency between the two time periods. Numerical model experiments further confirm the impacts of the ENSO regime shift on the C-mode characteristics. These results have important implications for understanding the C-mode dynamics and improving predictions of its climate impacts. 
    more » « less
  4. Abstract

    Using hindcasts produced by a coupled climate model, this study evaluates whether the model can forecast the observed spatiotemporal complexity in the El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the period 1982−2011: the eastern Pacific (EP), central Pacific‐I (CP‐I) and ‐II (CP‐II) types of El Niño, and the multi‐year evolution events of El Niño occurred in 1986–1988 (i.e., 1986/87/88 El Niño) and La Niña occurred in 1998–2000 (i.e., 1998/99/00 La Niña). With regard to the spatial complexity, it is found that the CP‐I type of El Niño is the easiest to hindcast, the CP‐II is second, and the EP is most difficult to hindcast as its amplitude is significantly underestimated in the model used here. The model deficiency in hindcasting the EP El Niño is related to a warm bias in climatological sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical eastern Pacific. This warm bias is related to model biases in the strengths of the Pacific Walker circulation and South Pacific high, both of which are notably weaker than observed. As for the temporal complexity, the model successfully hindcasts the multi‐year evolution of the 1998/99/00 La Niña but fails to accurately hindcast the 1986/87/88 El Niño. This contrasting model performance in hindcasting multi‐year events is found to be related to a cold bias in climatological SSTs in the tropical central Pacific. This cold bias result enables the model La Niña, but not El Niño, to activate intrabasin tropical‒subtropical interactions associated with the Pacific Meridional Mode that produce the multi‐year evolution pattern.

     
    more » « less
  5. Abstract

    A cyclostationary linear inverse model (CSLIM) is used to investigate the seasonal growth of tropical Pacific Ocean El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with canonical, central Pacific (CP), or eastern Pacific (EP) sea surface temperature (SST) characteristics. Analysis shows that all types of ENSO events experience maximum growth toward final states occurring in November and December. ENSO events with EP characteristics also experience growth into May and June, but CP events do not. A single dominant “ENSO mode,” growing from an equatorial heat content anomaly into a characteristic ENSO-type SST pattern in about 9 months (consistent with the delayed/recharge oscillator model of ENSO), is essential for the predictable development of all ENSO events. Notably, its seasonality is responsible for the late-calendar-year maximum in ENSO amplification. However, this ENSO mode alone does not capture the observed growth and evolution of diverse ENSO events, which additionally involve the seasonal evolution of other nonorthogonal Floquet modes. EP event growth occurs when the ENSO mode is initially “covered up” in combination with other Floquet modes. The ENSO mode’s slow seasonal evolution allows it to emerge while the other modes rapidly evolve and/or decay, leading to strongly amplifying and more predictable EP events. CP events develop when the initial state has a substantial contribution from Floquet modes with meridional mode–like SST structures. Thus, while nearly all ENSO events involve the seasonally varying ENSO-mode dynamics, the diversity and predictability of ENSO events cannot be understood without identifying contributions from the remaining Floquet modes.

    Significance Statement

    The purpose of this study is to identify structures that lead to seasonal growth of diverse types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. An important contribution from this study is that it uses an observationally constrained, empirically derived seasonal model. We find that processes affecting the evolution of diverse ENSO events are strongly seasonally dependent. ENSO events with eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) characteristics are closely related to a single “ENSO mode” that resembles theoretical models of ENSO variability. ENSO events that have central equatorial Pacific SST characteristics include contributions from additional “meridional mode” structures that evolve via different physical processes. These findings are an important step in evaluating the seasonal predictability of ENSO diversity.

     
    more » « less