Abstract. We investigate here the effects of geometric properties (channel depth andcross-sectional convergence length), storm surge characteristics, friction,and river flow on the spatial and temporal variability of compound floodingalong an idealized, meso-tidal coastal-plain estuary. An analytical model isdeveloped that includes exponentially convergent geometry, tidal forcing,constant river flow, and a representation of storm surge as a combination oftwo sinusoidal waves. Nonlinear bed friction is treated using Chebyshevpolynomials and trigonometric functions, and a multi-segment approach isused to increase accuracy. Model results show that river discharge increasesthe damping of surge amplitudes in an estuary, while increasing channeldepth has the opposite effect. Sensitivity studies indicate that the impactof river flow on peak water level decreases as channel depth increases,while the influence of tide and surge increases in the landward portion ofan estuary. Moreover, model results show less surge damping in deeperconfigurations and even amplification in some cases, while increasedconvergence length scale increases damping of surge waves with periods of 12–72 h. For every modeled scenario, there is a point where river dischargeeffects on water level outweigh tide/surge effects. As a channel isdeepened, this cross-over point moves progressively upstream. Thus, channeldeepening may alter flood risk spatially along an estuary and reduce thelength of a river estuary, within which fluvial flooding is dominant.
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Bigger Tides, Less Flooding: Effects of Dredging on Barotropic Dynamics in a Highly Modified Estuary
Since the late nineteenth century, channel depths have more than doubled in parts of New York Harbor and the tidal Hudson River, wetlands have been reclaimed and navigational channels widened, and river flow has been regulated. To quantify the effects of these modifications, observations and numerical simulations using historical and modern bathymetry are used to analyze changes in the barotropic dynamics. Model results and water level records for Albany (1868 to present) and New York Harbor (1844 to present) recovered from archives show that the tidal amplitude has more than doubled near the head of tides, whereas increases in the lower estuary have been slight (<10%). Channel deepening has reduced the effective drag in the upper tidal river, shifting the system from hyposynchronous (tide decaying landward) to hypersynchronous (tide amplifying). Similarly, modeling shows that coastal storm effects propagate farther landward, with a 20% increase in amplitude for a major event. In contrast, the decrease in friction with channel deepening has lowered the tidally averaged water level during discharge events, more than compensating for increased surge amplitude. Combined with river regulation that reduced peak discharges, the overall risk of extreme water levels in the upper tidal river decreased after channel construction, reducing the water level for the 10‐year recurrence interval event by almost 3 m. Mean water level decreased sharply with channel modifications around 1930, and subsequent decadal variability has depended both on river discharge and sea level rise. Channel construction has only slightly altered tidal and storm surge amplitudes in the lower estuary.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10459962
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
- Volume:
- 124
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2169-9275
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 196-211
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Modifications for navigation since the late 1800s have increased channel depth (
H ) in the lower Hudson River estuary by 10–30%, and at the mouth the depth has more than doubled. Observations along the lower estuary show that both salinity and stratification have increased over the past century. Model results comparing predredging bathymetry from the 1860s with modern conditions indicate an increase in the salinity intrusion of about 30%, which is roughly consistent with theH 5/3scaling expected from theory for salt flux dominated by steady exchange. While modifications including a recent deepening project have been concentrated near the mouth, the changes increase salinity and threaten drinking water supplies more than 100 km landward. The deepening has not changed the responses to river discharge (Q r ) of the salinity intrusion (~Q r −1/3) or mean stratification (Q r 2/3). Surprisingly, the increase in salinity intrusion with channel deepening results in almost no change in the estuarine circulation. This contrasts sharply with local scaling based on local dynamics of anH 2dependence, but it is consistent with a steady state salt balance that allows scaling of the estuarine circulation based on external forcing factors and is independent of depth. In contrast, the observed and modeled increases in stratification are opposite of expectations from the steady state balance, which could be due to reduction in mixing with loss of shallow subtidal regions. Overall, the mean shift in estuarine parameter space due to channel deepening has been modest compared with the monthly‐to‐seasonal variability due to tides and river discharge. -
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Abstract We develop idealized analytical and numerical models to study how storm surge amplitudes vary within frictional, weakly convergent, nonreflective estuaries. Friction is treated using Chebyshev polynomials. Storm surge is represented as the sum of two sinusoidal components, and a third constituent represents the semidiurnal tide (
D 2R 2e ‐folding) in a deeper channel for all surge time scales (12–72 hr). Deepening of an estuary results in larger surge amplitudes. Sensitivity studies show that surges with larger primary amplitudes (or shorter time scales) damp faster than those with smaller amplitudes (or larger time scales). Moreover, results imply that there is a location with maximum sensitivity to altered depth, offshore surge amplitude, and time scale and that the location of observed maximum change in surge amplitude along an estuary of simple form moves upstream when depth is increased. Further, the relative phase of surge to tide and surge asymmetry can change the spatial location of maximum change in surge. The largest change due to increased depth occurs for a large surge with a short time scale. The results suggest that both sea level rise and channel deepening may also alter surge amplitudes. -
Tide-surge interaction creates perturbations to storm surge at tidal frequencies and can affect the timing and magnitude of surge in tidally energetic regions. To date, limited research has identified high frequency tide-surge interaction (> 4 cycles per day) in coastal areas, and its significance in fluvial estuaries (where we consider it tide-surge-river interaction) is not well documented. Water level and current velocity observations were used to analyze tide-surge-river interaction at multiple tidal and overtide frequencies inside of a shallow estuary. Near the head of the estuary, higher frequency harmonics dominate tide-surge-river interaction and produce amplitudes more than double that of wind and pressure-driven surge. Bottom friction enhanced by storm-induced currents is the primary mechanism behind the interaction, which is further amplified by within-estuary resonance. High frequency tide-surge-river interactions in estuaries present a significant threat to human life, as the onset of flooding (in < 1.5 hrs.) is more rapid than coastal storm surge flooding. Commonly used storm surge forecasting models neglect high frequency tide-surge-river interaction and thus can markedly underestimate the magnitude and timing of inland storm surge flooding.more » « less
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Abstract This study investigates the sensitivity of the Calcasieu Lake estuarine region to channel deepening in southwest Louisiana in the USA. We test the hypothesis that the depth increase in a navigational channel in an estuarine region results in the amplification of the inland penetration of storm surge, thereby increasing the flood vulnerability of the region. We run numerical experiments using the Delft3D modeling suite (validated with observational data) with different historic channel depth scenarios. Model results show that channel deepening facilitates increased water movement into the lake–estuary system during a storm surge event. The inland peak water level increases by 37% in the presence of the deepest channel. Moreover, the peak volumetric flow rate increases by 291.6% along the navigational channel. Furthermore, the tidal prism and the volume of surge prism passing through the channel inlet increase by 487% and 153.3%, respectively. In our study, the presence of the deepest channel results in extra 56.72 km2of flooded area (approximately 12% increase) which is an indication that channel deepening over the years has rendered the region more vulnerable to hurricane-induced flooding. The study also analyzes the impact of channel deepening on storm surge in estuaries under different future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Simulations suggest that even the most conservative scenario of SLR will cause an approximately 51% increase in flooded area in the presence of the deepest ship channel, thereby suggesting that rising sea level will cause increased surge penetration and increased flood risk.
