An official website of the United States government
The Sun constantly releases radiation and plasma into the heliosphere. Sporadically, the Sun launches solar eruptions such as flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). CMEs carry away a huge amount of mass and magnetic flux with them. An Earth-directed CME can cause serious consequences to the human system. It can destroy power grids/pipelines, satellites, and communications. Therefore, accurately monitoring and predicting CMEs is important to minimize damages to the human system. In this study we propose an ensemble learning approach, named CMETNet, for predicting the arrival time of CMEs from the Sun to the Earth. We collect and integrate eruptive events from two solar cycles, #23 and #24, from 1996 to 2021 with a total of 363 geoeffective CMEs. The data used for making predictions include CME features, solar wind parameters and CME images obtained from the SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph. Our ensemble learning framework comprises regression algorithms for numerical data analysis and a convolutional neural network for image processing. Experimental results show that CMETNet performs better than existing machine learning methods reported in the literature, with a Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient of 0.83 and a mean absolute error of 9.75 h.
more »
« less
What Do Halo CMEs Tell Us about Solar Cycle 25?
Abstract It is known that the weak state of the heliosphere due to diminished solar activity in cycle 24 backreacted on coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to make them appear wider for a given speed. One of the consequences of the weak state of the heliosphere is that more CMEs appear as halo CMEs (HCMEs), and halos are formed at shorter heliocentric distances. Current predictions for the strength of solar cycle (SC) 25 range from half to twice the strength of SC 24. We compare the HCME occurrence rate and other properties during the rise phase of cycles 23, 24, and 25 to weigh in on the strength of SC 25. We find that HCME and solar wind properties in SC 25 are intermediate between SCs 23 and 24, but closer to SC 24. The HCME occurrence rate, normalized to the sunspot number, is higher in SCs 24 and 25 than in SC 23. The solar wind total pressure in SC 25 is ∼35% smaller than that in SC 23. Furthermore, the occurrence rates of high-energy solar energetic particle events and intense geomagnetic storms are well below the corresponding values in SC 23, but similar to those in SC 24. We conclude that cycle 25 is likely to be similar to or slightly stronger than cycle 24, in agreement with polar-field precursor methods for cycle 25 prediction.
more »
« less
- PAR ID:
- 10463485
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Astrophysical Journal Letters
- Volume:
- 952
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2041-8205
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- L13
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Solar energetic particle (SEP) events and their major subclass, solar proton events (SPEs), can have unfavorable consequences on numerous aspects of life and technology, making them one of the most harmful effects of solar activity. Garnering knowledge preceding such events by studying operational data flows is essential for their forecasting. Considering only solar cycle (SC) 24 in our previous study, we found that it may be sufficient to only utilize proton and soft X-ray (SXR) parameters for SPE forecasts. Here, we report a catalog recording ≥10 MeV ≥10 particle flux unit SPEs with their properties, spanning SCs 22–24, using NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite flux data. We report an additional catalog of daily proton and SXR flux statistics for this period, employing it to test the application of machine learning (ML) on the prediction of SPEs using a support vector machine (SVM) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). We explore the effects of training models with data from oneandtwo SCs, evaluating how transferable a model might be across different time periods. XGBoost proved to be more accurate than SVMs for almost every test considered, while also outperforming operational SWPC NOAA predictions and a persistence forecast. Interestingly, training done with SC 24 produces weaker true skill statistic and Heidke skill scores2, even when paired with SC 22 or SC 23, indicating transferability issues. This work contributes toward validating forecasts using long-spanning data—an understudied area in SEP research that should be considered to verify the cross cycle robustness of ML-driven forecasts.more » « less
-
Abstract The activity of the Sun alternates between a solar minimum and a solar maximum, the former corresponding to a period of “quieter” status of the heliosphere. During solar minimum, it is in principle more straightforward to follow eruptive events and solar wind structures from their birth at the Sun throughout their interplanetary journey. In this paper, we report analysis of the origin, evolution, and heliospheric impact of a series of solar transient events that took place during the second half of August 2018, that is, in the midst of the late declining phase of Solar Cycle 24. In particular, we focus on two successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and a following high‐speed stream (HSS) on their way toward Earth and Mars. We find that the first CME impacted both planets, whilst the second caused a strong magnetic storm at Earth and went on to miss Mars, which nevertheless experienced space weather effects from the stream interacting region preceding the HSS. Analysis of remote‐sensing and in‐situ data supported by heliospheric modeling suggests that CME–HSS interaction resulted in the second CME rotating and deflecting in interplanetary space, highlighting that accurately reproducing the ambient solar wind is crucial even during “simpler” solar minimum periods. Lastly, we discuss the upstream solar wind conditions and transient structures responsible for driving space weather effects at Earth and Mars.more » « less
-
The approximately 11-year solar cycle has been shown to impact the heavy ion composition of the solar wind, even when accounting for streams of differing speeds; however, the heavy ion composition observed between the same specific phases of a past solar cycle and the current cycle has rarely, if ever, been compared. Here, we compare the heavy ion composition of the solar wind, as measuredin situduring the solar cycle 23 and 25 ascending phases. We examine the mean iron and oxygen charge state composition and the O7+/O6+ratio in multiple ranges of associated bulk wind speeds. Then, we compare the iron and oxygen charge state composition and relative abundance of iron to oxygen in the traditionally defined fast and slow solar wind. Finally, to determine the impact of individual ion contributions on the solar wind iron abundance, we examine individual ratios of iron and oxygen ions. Although the charge state composition remained broadly similar between these two ascending phases, both the O7+/O6+ratio and iron fractionation in fast-speed streams were higher in the solar cycle 25 ascending phase than they were during the solar cycle 23 ascending phase, suggesting that equatorial coronal hole fields more frequently reconnected with helmet streamers or active regions in the latter of the two ascending phases; however, more work will need to be done to connect these observations back to their coronal origins. The individual ion ratios used in this work provided a spectrum to analyze the aggregate elemental abundances, and this work, as a whole, is an important step in determining how conditions in the corona may vary between solar cycles between the same phases.more » « less
-
The distribution of turbulence in the heliosphere remains a mystery, due to the complexity in not only modeling the turbulence transport equations but also identifying the drivers of turbulence that vary with time and spatial location. Beyond the ionization cavity (a few astronomical units (AU) from the Sun), the turbulence is driven predominantly by freshly created pickup ions (PUIs), in contrast to the driving by stream shear and compression. Understanding the source characteristics is necessary to refine turbulence transport models and interpret measurements of turbulence and solar wind temperature in the outer heliosphere. Using a recent latitude-dependent solar wind speed model and the ionization rate of neutral interstellar hydrogen (H), we investigate the temporal and spatial variation in the strength of low-frequency turbulence driven by PUIs from 1998 to 2020. We find that the driving rate is stronger during periods of high solar activity and at lower latitudes in the outer heliosphere. The driving rates for parallel and anti-parallel propagating (relative to the background magnetic field) slab turbulence have different spatial and latitude dependences. The calculated generation rate of turbulence by PUIs is an essential ingredient to investigate the latitude dependence of turbulence in the outer heliosphere, which is important to understand the heating of the distant solar wind and the modulation of cosmic rays.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/acdde2
