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1. Materials scarcity during the clean energy transition: Myths, challenges, and opportunities

   https://doi.org/10.1557/s43581-023-00077-9  

   Ku, Anthony Y. ; Kocs, Elizabeth A. ; Fujita, Yoshiko ; Haddad, Andrew Z. ; Gray, IV, Robert W. ( January 2024 , MRS Energy & Sustainability)

   Efforts to reach net zero targets by the second half of the century will have profound materials supply implications. The anticipated scale and speed of the energy transition in both transportation and energy storage raises the question of whether we risk running out of the essential critical materials needed to enable this transition. Early projections suggest that disruptions are likely to occur in the short term for select critical materials, but at the same time these shortages provide a powerful incentive for the market to respond in a variety of ways before supply-level stress becomes dire. In April 2023, the MRSFocus on Sustainability subcommitteesponsored a panel discussion on the role of innovation in materials science and engineering in supporting supply chains for clean energy technologies. Drawing on examples from the panel discussion, this perspective examines the myth of materials scarcity, explains the compelling need for innovation in materials in helping supply chains dynamically adapt over time, and illustrates how the Materials Research Society is facilitating engagement with industry to support materials innovation, now and in the future.

   In this commentary, we examine the myth of materials scarcity, explain the compelling need for innovation in materials in helping supply chains dynamically adapt over time, and show how the materials research community can effectively engage with industry, policymakers, and funding agencies to drive the needed innovation in critical areas.

   Demand for certain materials used in clean energy technologies is forecasted to increase by multiples of current production over the next decades. This has drawn attention to supply chain risks and has created a myth that we will “run out” out of certain materials during the energy transition. The reality is that markets have multiple mechanisms to adapt over the long-term, and near-term shortages or expectations of shortages provide a powerful incentive for action. In this commentary, we highlight different ways materials innovation can help solve these issues in the near term and long term, and how the materials research community can effectively engage with industry and policymakers.

    

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2. Potential influence of climate and anthropogenic variables on water security using blue and green water scarcity, Falkenmark index, and freshwater provision indicator

   https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.09.012  

   Veettil, A.V ; Mishra, A.K. ( December 2018 , Journal of environmental management)

   Land use change and climate variability have significantly altered the regional water cycle over the last century thereby affecting water security at a local to regional scale. Therefore, it is important to investigate how the climate, land use change, and water demand potentially influence the water security by applying the concept of water footprint. An integrated hydrological modeling framework using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was developed by considering both anthropogenic (e.g. land use change, water demand) and climatic factors to quantify the spatio-temporal variability of water security indicators such as blue water scarcity, green water scarcity, Falkenmark index, and freshwater provision indicators in Savannah River Basin (SRB). The SRB witnesses a significant change in land use land cover (e.g. forest cover, urban area) as well as water demand (e.g. irrigation, livestock production). Overall our results reveal that, SRB witnessed a significant decrease in blue water due to the climate variability indicating that the precipitation has more control over the blue water resources. Whereas, green water was more sensitive to changes in land use pattern. In addition, the magnitude of various water security indicators are different within each county suggesting that water scarcity are controlled by various factors within a region. An integrated assessment of water footprint, environmental flow, anthropogenic factors, and climatic variables can provide useful information on the rising (how and where) of water related risk to human and ecological health. 

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3. Extending traditional water supplies in inland communities with nontraditional solutions to water scarcity

   https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1543  

   Scruggs, Caroline E. ; Heyne, Catherine M. ( June 2021 , WIREs Water)

   Urban communities around the world are grappling with the challenges associated with population increases, drought, and projected water shortages. With a substantial global shortfall between water supply and demand expected by 2030, water planning strategies must adapt to a new reality characterized by higher temperatures and less precipitation, requiring new ways of thinking about water management, use, and governance. Commonplace strategies such as water conservation and nonpotable water reuse might not be sufficient to adequately stretch water supplies in water‐scarce parts of the industrialized world. In the United States, planned potable water reuse (i.e., purification of domestic wastewater for reuse as drinking water) is emerging as a way forward to mitigate water shortages without significant changes to lifestyle, behavior, or infrastructure. But potable reuse is not the only solution: paradigm shifting and disruptive options that more holistically address water scarcity, such as composting toilets and market‐based approaches to water use, are also gaining traction, and they could be pursued alongside or instead of potable water reuse. However, these options would require more significant changes to lifestyles, behavior, infrastructure, and governance. While all of the options considered offer advantages, they each come with new concerns and challenges related to cost, public perception, social norms, and policy. The goal of this work is to consider a number of plausible solutions to water scarcity—partial and complete, traditional and disruptive—to stimulate forward‐looking thinking about the increasingly common global problem of water scarcity.

   This article is categorized under:

   Engineering Water > Sustainable Engineering of Water

   Engineering Water > Planning Water

    

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4. Learning and flexibility for water supply infrastructure planning under groundwater resource uncertainty

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4664  

   Fletcher, Sarah ; Strzepek, Kenneth ; Alsaati, Adnan ; de Weck, Olivier ( November 2019 , Environmental Research Letters)

   Water supply infrastructure planning in groundwater-dependent regions is often challenged by uncertainty in future groundwater resource availability. Many major aquifer systems face long-term water table decline due to unsustainable withdrawals. However, many regions, especially those in the developing world, have a scarcity of groundwater data. This creates large uncertainties in groundwater resource predictions and decisions about whether to develop alternative supply sources. Developing infrastructure too soon can lead to unnecessary and expensive irreversible investments, but waiting too long can threaten water supply reliability. This study develops an adaptive infrastructure planning framework that applies Bayesian learning on groundwater observations to assess opportunities to learn about groundwater availability in the future and adapt infrastructure plans. This approach allows planners in data scarce regions to assess under what conditions a flexible infrastructure planning approach, in which initial plans are made but infrastructure development is deferred, can mitigate the risk of overbuilding infrastructure while maintaining water supply reliability in the face of uncertainty. This framework connects engineering options analysis from infrastructure planning to groundwater resources modeling. We demonstrate a proof-of-concept on a desalination planning case for the city of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where poor characterization of a fossil aquifer creates uncertainty in how long current groundwater resources can reliably supply demand. We find that a flexible planning approach reduces the risk of over-building infrastructure compared to a traditional static planning approach by 40% with minimal reliability risk (<1%). This striking result may be explained by the slow-evolving nature of groundwater decline, which provides time for planners to react, in contrast to more sudden risks such as flooding where tradeoffs between cost and reliability risk are heightened. This Bayesian approach shows promise for many civil infrastructure domains by providing a method to quantify learning in environmental modeling and assess the effectiveness of adaptive planning.

    

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5. Unexpected growth of an illegal water market

   Klassert, Christian ; Yoon, Jim ; Sigel, Katja ; Klauer, Bernd ; Talozi, Samer ; Lachaut, Thibaut ; Selby, Philip ; Knox, Stephen ; Avisse, Nicolas ; Tilmant, Amaury ; et al ( August 2023 , Nature Sustainability)

   Abstract Scarce and unreliable urban water supply in many countries has caused municipal users to rely on transfers from rural wells via unregulated markets. Assessments of this pervasive water re-allocation institution and its impacts on aquifers, consumer equity and affordability are lacking. We present a rigorous coupled human–natural system analysis of rural-to-urban tanker water market supply and demand in Jordan, a quintessential example of a nation relying heavily on such markets, fed by predominantly illegal water abstractions. Employing a shadow-economic approach validated using multiple data types, we estimate that unregulated water sales exceed government licences 10.7-fold, equalling 27% of the groundwater abstracted above sustainable yields. These markets supply 15% of all drinking water at high prices, account for 52% of all urban water revenue and constrain the public supply system’s ability to recover costs. We project that household reliance on tanker water will grow 2.6-fold by 2050 under population growth and climate change. Our analysis suggests that improving the efficiency and equity of public water supply is needed to ensure water security while avoiding uncontrolled groundwater depletion by growing tanker markets. 

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