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Abstract Near‐term, iterative ecological forecasts can be used to help understand and proactively manage ecosystems. To date, more forecasts have been developed for aquatic ecosystems than other ecosystems worldwide, likely motivated by the pressing need to conserve these essential and threatened ecosystems and increasing the availability of high‐frequency data. Forecasters have implemented many different modeling approaches to forecast freshwater variables, which have demonstrated promise at individual sites. However, a comprehensive analysis of the performance of varying forecast models across multiple sites is needed to understand broader controls on forecast performance. Forecasting challenges (i.e., community‐scale efforts to generate forecasts while also developing shared software, training materials, and best practices) present a useful platform for bridging this gap to evaluate how a range of modeling methods perform across axes of space, time, and ecological systems. Here, we analyzed forecasts from the aquatics theme of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Forecasting Challenge hosted by the Ecological Forecasting Initiative. Over 100,000 probabilistic forecasts of water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentration for 1–30 days ahead across seven NEON‐monitored lakes were submitted in 2023. We assessed how forecast performance varied among models with different structures, covariates, and sources of uncertainty relative to baseline null models. A similar proportion of forecast models were skillful across both variables (34%–40%), although more individual models outperformed the baseline models in forecasting water temperature (10 models out of 29) than dissolved oxygen (6 models out of 15). These top performing models came from a range of classes and structures. For water temperature, we found that forecast skill degraded with increases in forecast horizons, process‐based models, and models that included air temperature as a covariate generally exhibited the highest forecast performance, and that the most skillful forecasts often accounted for more sources of uncertainty than the lower performing models. The most skillful forecasts were for sites where observations were most divergent from historical conditions (resulting in poor baseline model performance). Overall, the NEON Forecasting Challenge provides an exciting opportunity for a model intercomparison to learn about the relative strengths of a diverse suite of models and advance our understanding of freshwater ecosystem predictability.
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Functional forecasting of dissolved oxygen in high‐frequency vertical lake profiles
Abstract Predicting dissolved oxygen (DO) in lakes is important for assessing environmental conditions as well as reducing water treatment costs. High levels of DO often precede toxic algal blooms, and low DO causes carcinogenic metals to precipitate during water treatment. Typically, DO is predicted from limited data sets using hydrodynamic modeling or data‐driven approaches like neural networks. However, functional data analysis (FDA) is also an appropriate modeling paradigm for measurements of DO taken vertically through the water column. In this analysis, we build FDA models for a set of profiles measured every 2 hours and forecast the entire DO percent saturation profile from 2 to 24 hours ahead. Functional smoothing and functional principal component analysis are applied first, followed by a vector autoregressive model to forecast the empirical functional principal component (FPC) scores. Rolling training windows adapt to seasonality, and multiple combinations of window sizes, model variables, and parameter specifications are compared using both functional and direct root mean squared error metrics. The FPC method outperforms a suite of comparison models, and including functional pH, temperature, and conductivity variables improves the longer forecasts. Finally, the FDA approach is useful for identifying unusual observations.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1924146
- PAR ID:
- 10464387
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmetrics
- Volume:
- 34
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 1180-4009
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2765
