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1. Streaming Variational Monte Carlo

   https://doi.org/10.1109/TPAMI.2022.3153225  

   Zhao, Yuan; Nassar, Josue; Jordan, Ian; Bugallo, Monica; Park, Il Memming (February 2022, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence)

   Nonlinear state-space models are powerful tools to describe dynamical structures in complex time series. In a streaming setting where data are processed one sample at a time, simultaneous inference of the state and its nonlinear dynamics has posed significant challenges in practice. We develop a novel online learning framework, leveraging variational inference and sequential Monte Carlo, which enables flexible and accurate Bayesian joint filtering. Our method provides an approximation of the filtering posterior which can be made arbitrarily close to the true filtering distribution for a wide class of dynamics models and observation models. Specifically, the proposed framework can efficiently approximate a posterior over the dynamics using sparse Gaussian processes, allowing for an interpretable model of the latent dynamics. Constant time complexity per sample makes our approach amenable to online learning scenarios and suitable for real-time applications. 

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2. Finite-Sample Bounds for Adaptive Inverse Reinforcement Learning Using Passive Langevin Dynamics

   https://doi.org/10.1109/TIT.2025.3555479  

   Snow, Luke; Krishnamurthy, Vikram (June 2025, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory)

   This paper provides a finite-sample analysis of a passive stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (PSGLD) algo- rithm. This algorithm is designed to achieve adaptive inverse reinforcement learning (IRL). Adaptive IRL aims to estimate the cost function of a forward learner performing a stochastic gradient algorithm (e.g., policy gradient reinforcement learning) by observing their estimates in real-time. The PSGLD algorithm is considered passive because it incorporates noisy gradients provided by an external stochastic gradient algorithm (forward learner), of which it has no control. The PSGLD algorithm acts as a randomized sampler to achieve adaptive IRL by reconstructing the forward learner’s cost function nonparametrically from the stationary measure of a Langevin diffusion. This paper analyzes the non-asymptotic (finite-sample) performance; we provide explicit bounds on the 2-Wasserstein distance between PSGLD algorithm sample measure and the stationary measure encoding the cost function, and provide guarantees for a kernel density estimation scheme which reconstructs the cost function from empirical samples. Our analysis uses tools from the study of Markov diffusion operators. The derived bounds have both practical and theoretical significance. They provide finite-time guarantees for an adaptive IRL mechanism, and substantially generalize the analytical framework of a line of research in passive stochastic gradient algorithms. 

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3. A causality-based learning approach for discovering the underlying dynamics of complex systems from partial observations with stochastic parameterization

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2023.133743  

   Chen, Nan; Zhang, Yinling (July 2023, Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena)

   Discovering the underlying dynamics of complex systems from data is an important practical topic. Constrained optimization algorithms are widely utilized and lead to many successes. Yet, such purely data-driven methods may bring about incorrect physics in the presence of random noise and cannot easily handle the situation with incomplete data. In this paper, a new iterative learning algorithm for complex turbulent systems with partial observations is developed that alternates between identifying model structures, recovering unobserved variables, and estimating parameters. First, a causality-based learning approach is utilized for the sparse identification of model structures, which takes into account certain physics knowledge that is pre-learned from data. It has unique advantages in coping with indirect coupling between features and is robust to stochastic noise. A practical algorithm is designed to facilitate causal inference for high-dimensional systems. Next, a systematic nonlinear stochastic parameterization is built to characterize the time evolution of the unobserved variables. Closed analytic formula via efficient nonlinear data assimilation is exploited to sample the trajectories of the unobserved variables, which are then treated as synthetic observations to advance a rapid parameter estimation. Furthermore, the localization of the state variable dependence and the physics constraints are incorporated into the learning procedure. This mitigates the curse of dimensionality and prevents the finite time blow-up issue. Numerical experiments show that the new algorithm identifies the model structure and provides suitable stochastic parameterizations for many complex nonlinear systems with chaotic dynamics, spatiotemporal multiscale structures, intermittency, and extreme events. 

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4. On Learning Continuous Pairwise Markov Random Fields

   Shah, A; Shah, D; Wornell, G. W. (April 2021, Proc. Int. Conf. Artif. Intell., Stat. (AISTATS-2021), Proc. Mach. Learn. Res. (PMLR))

   null (Ed.)

   We consider learning a sparse pairwise Markov Random Field (MRF) with continuous valued variables from i.i.d samples. We adapt the algorithm of Vuffray et al. (2019) to this setting and provide finite- sample analysis revealing sample complexity scaling logarithmically with the number of variables, as in the discrete and Gaussian settings. Our approach is applicable to a large class of pairwise MRFs with continuous variables and also has desirable asymptotic properties, including consistency and normality under mild conditions. Further, we establish that the population version of the optimization criterion employed by Vuffray et al. (2019) can be interpreted as local maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). As part of our analysis, we introduce a robust variation of sparse linear regression à la Lasso, which may be of interest in its own right. 

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5. Finite Sample Identification of Partially Observed Bilinear Dynamical Systems

   Sattar, Yahya; Jedra, Yassir; Fazel, Maryam; Dean, Sarah (May 2025, Proceedings of Machine Learning Research)

   Ozay, N; Balzano, L; Panagou, D; Abate, A (Ed.)

   We consider the problem of learning a realization of a partially observed bilinear dynamical system (BLDS) from noisy input-output data. Given a single trajectory of input-output samples, we provide an algorithm and a finite time analysis for learning the system’s Markov-like parameters, from which a balanced realization of the bilinear system can be obtained. The stability of BLDS depends on the sequence of inputs used to excite the system. Moreover, our identification algorithm regresses the outputs to highly correlated, nonlinear, and heavy-tailed covariates. These properties, unique to partially observed bilinear dynamical systems, pose significant challenges to the analysis of our algorithm for learning the unknown dynamics. We address these challenges and provide high probability error bounds on our identification algorithm under a uniform stability assumption. Our analysis provides insights into system theoretic quantities that affect learning accuracy and sample complexity. Lastly, we perform numerical experiments with synthetic data to reinforce these insights. 

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