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This study examines the impacts of assimilating ocean-surface winds derived from the NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) on improving the short-range numerical simulations and forecasts of landfalling hurricanes using the NCEP operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model. A series of data assimilation experiments are performed using HWRF and a Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based hybrid 3-dimensional ensemble-variational (3DEnVar) data assimilation system. The influence of CYGNSS data on hurricane forecasts is compared with that of Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) wind products that have already been assimilated into the HWRF forecast system in a series of assimilation experiments. The effects of different versions of CYGNSS data (V2.1 vs. V3.0) on hurricane forecasts are evaluated. The results indicate that CYGNSS ocean-surface wind can lead to improved numerical simulations and forecasts of hurricane track and intensity, asymmetric wind structure, and precipitation. The impacts of CYGNSS on hurricane forecasts are comparable and complementary to the operational use of ASCAT satellite data products. The dependence of the relative impacts of different versions of CYGNSS data on optimal thinning distances is evident.
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Evaluation of Experimental High-Resolution Model Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Using Object-Based Metrics
Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation poses serious hazards including freshwater flooding. High-resolution hurricane models predict the location and intensity of TC rainfall, which can influence local evacuation and preparedness policies. This study evaluates 0–72-h precipitation forecasts from two experimental models, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) model and the basin-scale Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF-B) Model, for 2020 North Atlantic landfalling TCs. We use an object-based method that quantifies the shape and size of the forecast and observed precipitation. Precipitation objects are then compared for light, moderate, and heavy precipitation using spatial metrics (e.g., area, perimeter, elongation). Results show that both models forecast precipitation that is too connected, too close to the TC center, and too enclosed around the TC center. Collectively, these spatial biases suggest that the model forecasts are too intense even though there is a negative intensity bias for both models, indicating there may be an inconsistency between the precipitation configuration and the maximum sustained winds in the model forecasts. The HAFS model struggles with forecasting stratiform versus convective precipitation and with the representation of lighter (stratiform) precipitation during the first 6 h after initialization. No such spinup issues are seen in the HWRF-B forecasts, which instead exhibit systematic biases at all lead times and systematic issues across all rain-rate thresholds. Future work will investigate spinup issues in the HAFS model forecast and how the microphysics parameterization affects the representation of precipitation in both models.
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- PAR ID:
- 10469560
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Weather and Forecasting
- Volume:
- 38
- Issue:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 0882-8156
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 2111-2134
- Size(s):
- p. 2111-2134
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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