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Title: Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo: a pseudo-marginal approach
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is an established approach for uncertainty quantification and propagation in scientific applications. A key challenge in apply- ing MCMC to scientific domains is computation: the target density of interest is often a function of expensive computations, such as a high-fidelity physical simulation, an intractable integral, or a slowly-converging iterative algorithm. Thus, using an MCMC algorithms with an expensive target density becomes impractical, as these expensive computations need to be evaluated at each iteration of the algorithm. In practice, these computations often approximated via a cheaper, low- fidelity computation, leading to bias in the resulting target density. Multi-fidelity MCMC algorithms combine models of varying fidelities in order to obtain an ap- proximate target density with lower computational cost. In this paper, we describe a class of asymptotically exact multi-fidelity MCMC algorithms for the setting where a sequence of models of increasing fidelity can be computed that approximates the expensive target density of interest. We take a pseudo-marginal MCMC approach for multi-fidelity inference that utilizes a cheaper, randomized-fidelity unbiased estimator of the target fidelity constructed via random truncation of a telescoping series of the low-fidelity sequence of models. Finally, we discuss and evaluate the proposed multi-fidelity MCMC approach on several applications, including log-Gaussian Cox process modeling, Bayesian ODE system identification, PDE-constrained optimization, and Gaussian process parameter inference.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2007278 2118201
NSF-PAR ID:
10470413
Author(s) / Creator(s):
;
Publisher / Repository:
Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS)
Date Published:
Format(s):
Medium: X
Location:
New Orleans, LA
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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