This article considers Bayesian model selection via mean-field (MF) variational approximation. Towards this goal, we study the non-asymptotic properties of MF inference that allows latent variables and model misspecification. Concretely, we show a Bernstein–von Mises (BvM) theorem for the variational distribution from MF under possible model misspecification, which implies the distributional convergence of MF variational approximation to a normal distribution centring at the maximal likelihood estimator. Motivated by the BvM theorem, we propose a model selection criterion using the evidence lower bound (ELBO), and demonstrate that the model selected by ELBO tends to asymptotically agree with the one selected by the commonly used Bayesian information criterion (BIC) as the sample size tends to infinity. Compared to BIC, ELBO tends to incur smaller approximation error to the log-marginal likelihood (a.k.a. model evidence) due to a better dimension dependence and full incorporation of the prior information. Moreover, we show the geometric convergence of the coordinate ascent variational inference algorithm, which provides a practical guidance on how many iterations one typically needs to run when approximating the ELBO. These findings demonstrate that variational inference is capable of providing a computationally efficient alternative to conventional approaches in tasks beyond obtaining point estimates.
This content will become publicly available on June 1, 2024
Obtaining solutions to optimal transportation (OT) problems is typically intractable when marginal spaces are continuous. Recent research has focused on approximating continuous solutions with discretization methods based on i.i.d. sampling, and this has shown convergence as the sample size increases. However, obtaining OT solutions with large sample sizes requires intensive computation effort, which can be prohibitive in practice. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for calculating discretizations with a given number of weighted points for marginal distributions by minimizing the (entropy-regularized) Wasserstein distance and providing bounds on the performance. The results suggest that our plans are comparable to those obtained with much larger numbers of i.i.d. samples and are more efficient than existing alternatives. Moreover, we propose a local, parallelizable version of such discretizations for applications, which we demonstrate by approximating adorable images.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 2117429
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10471773
- Publisher / Repository:
- MDPI
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Entropy
- Volume:
- 25
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 1099-4300
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 839
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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