Abstract This project is funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) through their NSF RAPID program under the title “Modeling Corona Spread Using Big Data Analytics.” The project is a joint effort between the Department of Computer & Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at FAU and a research group from LexisNexis Risk Solutions. The novel coronavirus Covid-19 originated in China in early December 2019 and has rapidly spread to many countries around the globe, with the number of confirmed cases increasing every day. Covid-19 is officially a pandemic. It is a novel infection with serious clinical manifestations, including death, and it has reached at least 124 countries and territories. Although the ultimate course and impact of Covid-19 are uncertain, it is not merely possible but likely that the disease will produce enough severe illness to overwhelm the worldwide health care infrastructure. Emerging viral pandemics can place extraordinary and sustained demands on public health and health systems and on providers of essential community services. Modeling the Covid-19 pandemic spread is challenging. But there are data that can be used to project resource demands. Estimates of the reproductive number (R) of SARS-CoV-2 show that at the beginning of the epidemic, each infected person spreads the virus to at least two others, on average (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020, Livingston and Bucher in JAMA 323(14):1335, 2020). A conservatively low estimate is that 5 % of the population could become infected within 3 months. Preliminary data from China and Italy regarding the distribution of case severity and fatality vary widely (Wu and McGoogan in JAMA 323(13):1239–42, 2020). A recent large-scale analysis from China suggests that 80 % of those infected either are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms; a finding that implies that demand for advanced medical services might apply to only 20 % of the total infected. Of patients infected with Covid-19, about 15 % have severe illness and 5 % have critical illness (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020). Overall, mortality ranges from 0.25 % to as high as 3.0 % (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020, Wilson et al. in Emerg Infect Dis 26(6):1339, 2020). Case fatality rates are much higher for vulnerable populations, such as persons over the age of 80 years (> 14 %) and those with coexisting conditions (10 % for those with cardiovascular disease and 7 % for those with diabetes) (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020). Overall, Covid-19 is substantially deadlier than seasonal influenza, which has a mortality of roughly 0.1 %. Public health efforts depend heavily on predicting how diseases such as those caused by Covid-19 spread across the globe. During the early days of a new outbreak, when reliable data are still scarce, researchers turn to mathematical models that can predict where people who could be infected are going and how likely they are to bring the disease with them. These computational methods use known statistical equations that calculate the probability of individuals transmitting the illness. Modern computational power allows these models to quickly incorporate multiple inputs, such as a given disease’s ability to pass from person to person and the movement patterns of potentially infected people traveling by air and land. This process sometimes involves making assumptions about unknown factors, such as an individual’s exact travel pattern. By plugging in different possible versions of each input, however, researchers can update the models as new information becomes available and compare their results to observed patterns for the illness. In this paper we describe the development a model of Corona spread by using innovative big data analytics techniques and tools. We leveraged our experience from research in modeling Ebola spread (Shaw et al. Modeling Ebola Spread and Using HPCC/KEL System. In: Big Data Technologies and Applications 2016 (pp. 347-385). Springer, Cham) to successfully model Corona spread, we will obtain new results, and help in reducing the number of Corona patients. We closely collaborated with LexisNexis, which is a leading US data analytics company and a member of our NSF I/UCRC for Advanced Knowledge Enablement. The lack of a comprehensive view and informative analysis of the status of the pandemic can also cause panic and instability within society. Our work proposes the HPCC Systems Covid-19 tracker, which provides a multi-level view of the pandemic with the informative virus spreading indicators in a timely manner. The system embeds a classical epidemiological model known as SIR and spreading indicators based on causal model. The data solution of the tracker is built on top of the Big Data processing platform HPCC Systems, from ingesting and tracking of various data sources to fast delivery of the data to the public. The HPCC Systems Covid-19 tracker presents the Covid-19 data on a daily, weekly, and cumulative basis up to global-level and down to the county-level. It also provides statistical analysis for each level such as new cases per 100,000 population. The primary analysis such as Contagion Risk and Infection State is based on causal model with a seven-day sliding window. Our work has been released as a publicly available website to the world and attracted a great volume of traffic. The project is open-sourced and available on GitHub. The system was developed on the LexisNexis HPCC Systems, which is briefly described in the paper.
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Joining of metal and non-polar polypropylene composite through a simple functional group seeding layer
Polypropylene (PP) and its composites are one of the hardest to directly join with metals due to their inherent
chemical incompatibility. This paper presents a simple, efficient, and cost-effective method for joining PP
composite to aluminum alloy in spot welding configuration by seeding the functional groups via an insert layer of
PA6 thin film without requiring surface or material pre-treatment. The resulting joint loading capacity is shown
to be sufficiently high to consistently develop failures in PP substrates in lap shear tensile tests away from the
bonded area. Joint interface microstructure features are examined in detail. Bonding mechanisms are then
described based on the detailed observations obtained in this study.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2126163
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10475454
- Publisher / Repository:
- Elsevier
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Manufacturing Processes
- Volume:
- 85
- Issue:
- C
- ISSN:
- 1526-6125
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 90 to 100
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- ["Polymer composites\nMetal to polymer joining\nFriction spot welding\nAluminum alloy\nMulti-material\nSurface pre-treatment\nBonding interface\nHybrid structures"]
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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2020 ,137 , 48552. -
null (Ed.)Prior mathematical work of Constantin & Iyer ( Commun. Pure Appl. Maths , vol. 61, 2008, pp. 330–345; Ann. Appl. Probab. , vol. 21, 2011, pp. 1466–1492) has shown that incompressible Navier–Stokes solutions possess infinitely many stochastic Lagrangian conservation laws for vorticity, backward in time, which generalize the invariants of Cauchy ( Sciences mathématiques et physique , vol. I, 1815, pp. 33–73) for smooth Euler solutions. We reformulate this theory for the case of wall-bounded flows by appealing to the Kuz'min ( Phys. Lett. A , vol. 96, 1983, pp. 88–90)–Oseledets ( Russ. Math. Surv. , vol. 44, 1989, p. 210) representation of Navier–Stokes dynamics, in terms of the vortex-momentum density associated to a continuous distribution of infinitesimal vortex rings. The Constantin–Iyer theory provides an exact representation for vorticity at any interior point as an average over stochastic vorticity contributions transported from the wall. We point out relations of this Lagrangian formulation with the Eulerian theory of Lighthill (Boundary layer theory. In Laminar Boundary Layers (ed. L. Rosenhead), 1963, pp. 46–113)–Morton ( Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn. , vol. 28, 1984, pp. 277–308) for vorticity generation at solid walls, and also with a statistical result of Taylor ( Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A , vol. 135, 1932, pp. 685–702)–Huggins ( J. Low Temp. Phys. , vol. 96, 1994, pp. 317–346), which connects dissipative drag with organized cross-stream motion of vorticity and which is closely analogous to the ‘Josephson–Anderson relation’ for quantum superfluids. We elaborate a Monte Carlo numerical Lagrangian scheme to calculate the stochastic Cauchy invariants and their statistics, given the Eulerian space–time velocity field. The method is validated using an online database of a turbulent channel-flow simulation (Graham et al. , J. Turbul. , vol. 17, 2016, pp. 181–215), where conservation of the mean Cauchy invariant is verified for two selected buffer-layer events corresponding to an ‘ejection’ and a ‘sweep’. The variances of the stochastic Cauchy invariants grow exponentially backward in time, however, revealing Lagrangian chaos of the stochastic trajectories undergoing both fluid advection and viscous diffusion.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmapro.2022.11.022
