Most models exploring the effects of climate change on mosquito‐borne disease ignore thermal adaptation. However, if local adaptation leads to changes in mosquito thermal responses, “one size fits all” models could fail to capture current variation between populations and future adaptive responses to changes in temperature. Here, we assess phenotypic adaptation to temperature in
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10476374
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Global Change Biology
- Volume:
- 30
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 1354-1013
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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null (Ed.)The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology—evolutionary rescue models—can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti -transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.more » « less
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ABSTRACT Within the contiguous USA, Florida is unique in having tropical and subtropical climates, a great abundance and diversity of mosquito vectors, and high rates of human travel. These factors contribute to the state being the national ground zero for exotic mosquito-borne diseases, as evidenced by local transmission of viruses spread by Aedes aegypti, including outbreaks of dengue in 2022 and Zika in 2016. Because of limited treatment options, integrated vector management is a key part of mitigating these arboviruses. Practical knowledge of when and where mosquito populations of interest exist is critical for surveillance and control efforts, and habitat predictions at various geographic scales typically rely on ecological niche modeling. However, most of these models, usually created in partnership with academic institutions, demand resources that otherwise may be too time-demanding or difficult for mosquito control programs to replicate and use effectively. Such resources may include intensive computational requirements, high spatiotemporal resolutions of data not regularly available, and/or expert knowledge of statistical analysis. Therefore, our study aims to partner with mosquito control agencies in generating operationally useful mosquito abundance models. Given the increasing threat of mosquito-borne disease transmission in Florida, our analytic approach targets recent Ae. aegypti abundance in the Tampa Bay area. We investigate explanatory variables that: 1) are publicly available, 2) require little to no preprocessing for use, and 3) are known factors associated with Ae. aegypti ecology. Out of our 4 final models, none required more than 5 out of the 36 predictors assessed (13.9%). Similar to previous literature, the strongest predictors were consistently 3- and 4-wk temperature and precipitation lags, followed closely by 1 of 2 environmental predictors: land use/land cover or normalized difference vegetation index. Surprisingly, 3 of our 4 final models included one or more socioeconomic or demographic predictors. In general, larger sample sizes of trap collections and/or citizen science observations should result in greater confidence in model predictions and validation. However, given disparities in trap collections across jurisdictions, individual county models rather than a multicounty conglomerate model would likely yield stronger model fits. Ultimately, we hope that the results of our assessment will enable more accurate and precise mosquito surveillance and control of Ae. aegypti in Florida and beyond.
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Abstract Background The
Aedes aegypti mosquito is a vector of several viruses including dengue, chikungunya, zika, and yellow fever. Vector surveillance and control are the primary methods used for the control and prevention of disease transmission; however, public health institutions largely rely on measures of population abundance as a trigger for initiating control activities. Previous research found evidence that at the northern edge ofAe. aegypti ’s geographic range, survival, rather than abundance, is likely to be the factor limiting disease transmission. In this study, we sought to test the utility of using body size as an entomological index to surveil changes in the age structure of field-collected femaleAedes aegypti .Methods We collected female
Ae. aegypti mosquitoes using BG sentinel traps in three cities at the northern edge of their geographic range. Collections took place during their active season over the course of 3 years. Female wing size was measured as an estimate of body size, and reproductive status was characterized by examining ovary tracheation. Chronological age was determined by measuring transcript abundance of an age-dependent gene. These data were then tested with female abundance at each site and weather data from the estimated larval development period and adulthood (1 week prior to capture). Two sources of weather data were tested to determine which was more appropriate for evaluating impacts on mosquito physiology. All variables were then used to parameterize structural equation models to predict age.Results In comparing city-specific NOAA weather data and site-specific data from HOBO remote temperature and humidity loggers, we found that HOBO data were more tightly associated with body size. This information is useful for justifying the cost of more precise weather monitoring when studying intra-population heterogeneity of eco-physiological factors. We found that body size itself was not significantly associated with age. Of all the variables measured, we found that best fitting model for age included temperature during development, body size, female abundance, and relative humidity in the 1 week prior to capture . The strength of models improved drastically when testing one city at a time, with Hermosillo (the only study city with seasonal dengue transmission) having the best fitting model for age. Despite our finding that there was a bias in the body size of mosquitoes collected alive from the BG sentinel traps that favored large females, there was still sufficient variation in the size of females collected alive to show that inclusion of this entomological indicator improved the predictive capacity of our models.
Conclusions Inclusion of body size data increased the strength of weather-based models for age. Importantly, we found that variation in age was greater within cities than between cities, suggesting that modeling of age must be made on a city-by-city basis. These results contribute to efforts to use weather forecasts to predict changes in the probability of disease transmission by mosquito vectors.
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Abstract Invasive mosquitoes are expanding their ranges into new geographic areas and interacting with resident mosquito species. Understanding how novel interactions can affect mosquito population dynamics is necessary to predict transmission risk at invasion fronts. Mosquito life‐history traits are extremely sensitive to temperature, and this can lead to temperature‐dependent competition between competing invasive mosquito species. We explored temperature‐dependent competition between
Aedes aegypti andAnopheles stephensi , two invasive mosquito species whose distributions overlap in India, the Middle East, and North Africa, whereAn. stephensi is currently expanding into the endemic range ofAe. aegypti . We followed mosquito cohorts raised at different intraspecific and interspecific densities across five temperatures (16–32°C) to measure traits relevant for population growth and to estimate species’ per capita growth rates. We then used these growth rates to derive each species’ competitive ability at each temperature. We find strong evidence for asymmetric competition at all temperatures, withAe. aegypti emerging as the dominant competitor. This was primarily because of differences in larval survival and development times across all temperatures that resulted in a higher estimated intrinsic growth rate and competitive tolerance estimate forAe. aegypti compared toAn. stephensi . The spread ofAn. stephensi into the African continent could lead to urban transmission of malaria, an otherwise rural disease, increasing the human population at risk and complicating malaria elimination efforts. Competition has resulted in habitat segregation of other invasive mosquito species, and our results suggest that it may play a role in determining the distribution ofAn. stephensi across its invasive range. -
Abstract Background Mosquito-borne dengue virus (DENV) causes major disease worldwide, impacting 50–100 million people every year, and is spread by the major mosquito vector
Aedes aegypti . Understanding mosquito physiology, including antiviral mechanisms, and developing new control strategies have become an important step towards the elimination of DENV disease. In the study reported here, we focused on autophagy, a pathway suggested as having a positive influence on virus replication in humans, as a potential antiviral target in the mosquito.Methods To understand the role played by autophagy in
Ae. aegypti , we examined the activation of this pathway in Aag-2 cells, anAe. aegypti -derived cell line, infected with DENV. Rapamycin and 3-methyladenine, two small molecules that have been shown to affect the function of the autophagy pathway, were used to activate or suppress, respectively, the autophagy pathway.Results At 1-day post-DENV infection in Aag-2 cells, transcript levels of both the microtubule-associated protein light chain 3-phosphatidylethanolamine conjugate (LC3-II) and autophagy-related protein 1 (ATG1) increased. Rapamycin treatment activated the autophagy pathway as early as 1-h post-treatment, and the virus titer had decreased in the Aag-2 cells at 2 days post-infection; in contrast, the 3-methyladenine treatment did not significantly affect the DENV titer. Treatment with these small molecules also impacted the ATG12 transcript levels in DENV-infected cells.
Conclusions Our studies revealed that activation of the autophagy pathway through rapamycin treatment altered DENV infection in the mosquito cells, suggesting that this pathway could be a possible antiviral mechanism in the mosquito system. Here we provide fundamental information needed to proceed with future experiments and to improve our understanding of the mosquito’s immune response against DENV.
Graphical Abstract