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1. An introductory review of the thermal structure of subduction zones: III—Comparison between models and observations

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-023-00589-5  

   van Keken, Peter E.; Wilson, Cian R. (September 2023, Progress in Earth and Planetary Science)

   Abstract The thermal structure of subduction zones is fundamental to our understanding of the physical and chemical processes that occur at active convergent plate margins. These include magma generation and related arc volcanism, shallow and deep seismicity, and metamorphic reactions that can release fluids. Computational models can predict the thermal structure to great numerical precision when models are fully described but this does not guarantee accuracy or applicability. In a trio of companion papers, the construction of thermal subduction zone models, their use in subduction zone studies, and their link to geophysical and geochemical observations are explored. In this last part, we discuss how independent finite element approaches predict the thermal structure of the global subduction system and investigate how well these predictions correspond to geophysical, geochemical, and petrological observations. 

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2. Thermal modeling of subduction zones with prescribed and evolving 2D and 3D slab geometries

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-024-00611-4  

   Sime, Nathan; Wilson, Cian R.; van Keken, Peter E. (March 2024, Progress in Earth and Planetary Science)

   Abstract The determination of the temperature in and above the slab in subduction zones, using models where the top of the slab is precisely known, is important to test hypotheses regarding the causes of arc volcanism and intermediate-depth seismicity. While 2D and 3D models can predict the thermal structure with high precision for fixed slab geometries, a number of regions are characterized by relatively large geometrical changes over time. Examples include the flat slab segments in South America that evolved from more steeply dipping geometries to the present day flat slab geometry. We devise, implement, and test a numerical approach to model the thermal evolution of a subduction zone with prescribed changes in slab geometry over time. Our numerical model approximates the subduction zone geometry by employing time dependent deformation of a Bézier spline that is used as the slab interface in a finite element discretization of the Stokes and heat equations. We implement the numerical model using the FEniCS open source finite element suite and describe the means by which we compute approximations of the subduction zone velocity, temperature, and pressure fields. We compute and compare the 3D time evolving numerical model with its 2D analogy at cross-sections for slabs that evolve to the present-day structure of a flat segment of the subducting Nazca plate. 

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3. Deep decoupling in subduction zones: Observations and temperature limits

   https://doi.org/10.1130/GES02278.1  

   Abers, Geoffrey A.; van Keken, Peter E.; Wilson, Cian R. (October 2020, Geosphere)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract The plate interface undergoes two transitions between seismogenic depths and subarc depths. A brittle-ductile transition at 20–50 km depth is followed by a transition to full viscous coupling to the overlying mantle wedge at ∼80 km depth. We review evidence for both transitions, focusing on heat-flow and seismic-attenuation constraints on the deeper transition. The intervening ductile shear zone likely weakens considerably as temperature increases, such that its rheology exerts a stronger control on subduction-zone thermal structure than does frictional shear heating. We evaluate its role through analytic approximations and two-dimensional finite-element models for both idealized subduction geometries and those resembling real subduction zones. We show that a temperature-buffering process exists in the shear zone that results in temperatures being tightly controlled by the rheological strength of that shear zone’s material for a wide range of shear-heating behaviors of the shallower brittle region. Higher temperatures result in weaker shear zones and hence less heat generation, so temperatures stop increasing and shear zones stop weakening. The net result for many rheologies are temperatures limited to ≤350–420 °C along the plate interface below the cold forearc of most subduction zones until the hot coupled mantle is approached. Very young incoming plates are the exception. This rheological buffering desensitizes subduction-zone thermal structure to many parameters and may help explain the global constancy of the 80 km coupling limit. We recalculate water fluxes to the forearc wedge and deep mantle and find that shear heating has little effect on global water circulation. 

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4. An introductory review of the thermal structure of subduction zones: I—motivation and selected examples

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-023-00573-z  

   van_Keken, Peter E; Wilson, Cian R (December 2023, Progress in Earth and Planetary Science)

   Tada, R (Ed.)

   The thermal structure of subduction zones is fundamental to our understanding of physical and chemical processes that occur at active convergent plate margins. These include magma generation and related arc volcanism, shallow and deep seismicity, and metamorphic reactions that can release fluids. Computational models can predict the thermal structure to great numerical precision when models are fully described but this does not guarantee accuracy or applicability. In a trio of companion papers, the construction of thermal subduction zone models, their use in subduction zone studies, and their link to geophysical and geochemical observations are explored. In part I, the motivation to understand the thermal structure is presented based on experimental and observational studies. This is followed by a description of a selection of thermal models for the Japanese subduction zones. 

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5. Constraints from GPS measurements on plate coupling within the Makran subduction zone and tsunami scenarios in the western Indian Ocean

   https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggae046  

   Cheng, Guo; Barnhart, William D.; Small, David (February 2024, Geophysical Journal International)

   SUMMARY Plate-coupling estimates and previous seismicity indicate that portions of the Makran megathrust of southern Pakistan and Iran are partially coupled and have the potential to produce future magnitude 7+ earthquakes. However, the GPS observations needed to constrain coupling models are sparse and lead to an incomplete understanding of regional earthquake and tsunami hazard. In this study, we assess GPS velocities for plate coupling of the Makran subduction zone with specific attention to model resolution and the accretionary prism rheology. We use finite element model-derived Green's functions to invert for the interseismic slip deficit under both elastic and viscoelastic Earth assumptions. We use the model resolution matrix to characterize plate-coupling scenarios that are consistent with the limited spatial resolution afforded by GPS observations. We then forward model the corresponding tsunami responses at major coastal cities within the western Indian Ocean basin. Our plate-coupling results show potential segmentation of the megathrust with varying coupling from west to east, but do not rule out a scenario where the entire length of the megathrust could rupture in a single earthquake. The full subduction zone rupture scenarios suggest that the Makran may be able to produce earthquakes up to Mw 9.2. The corresponding tsunami model from the largest earthquake event (Mw 9.2) estimates maximum wave heights reaching 2–5 m at major port cities in the northern Arabian Sea region. Cities on the west coast of India are less affected (1–2 m). Coastlines bounding eastern Africa, and the Strait of Hormuz, are the least affected (<1 m). 

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