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1. Developing a Multicriteria Decision Analysis Framework to Evaluate Reclaimed Wastewater Use for Agricultural Irrigation: The Case Study of Maryland

   https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8010004  

   Paul, Manashi; Negahban-Azar, Masoud; Shirmohammadi, Adel; Montas, Hubert (March 2021, Hydrology)

   null (Ed.)

   Groundwater is the main source of irrigation and residential use in the Eastern Shore Maryland, which is experiencing challenges regarding overuse, saltwater intrusion, and diminishing productivity. The Chesapeake Bay is also facing the problem of water pollution due to pollutant loading from agricultural fields and wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Using recycled water for irrigation has the potential to alleviate the pressure on groundwater and reduce pollutant loading. The objective of this study was to develop a decision tool to explore the use of recycled water for agricultural irrigation in Maryland using Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) integrated with Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Four main evaluation criteria were included in the GIS-MCDA framework: agricultural land cover, climate, groundwater vulnerability, and characteristics of the WWTPs as sources of recycled water. Groundwater vulnerability zones were developed using the groundwater well density, water extraction data, and the aquifer information. Then, the most suitable areas for irrigation using recycled water were identified. About 13.5% and 32.9% of agricultural land was, respectively, found to be “highly” and “moderately” suitable for irrigation with recycled water when WWTPs were categorized based on their treatment process information. The results provide a useful decision tool to promote the use of recycled water for agricultural irrigation. 

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2. Global drivers and local management of groundwater stress: a high-resolution economic analysis of land, water, and food systems

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adf909  

   Haqiqi, Iman; Hertel, Thomas W; Srikanth, Kavitha (August 2025, Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract Groundwater stress, a critical challenge for global water security and food production, has intensified due to the interaction of global change drivers and rapidly evolving local conditions. This paper investigates the individual and combined impacts of water availability, heat, population growth, income dynamics, and technological advancements on global groundwater stress over a historical period from 1997 to 2017. Utilizing the gridded Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment (SIMPLE-G), the study attributes local changes in water and land use patterns to these key global drivers. Furthermore, it evaluates an alternative, counterfactual scenario in which sustainable management interventions for groundwater resources are implemented over these two historical decades. The analysis quantifies the historical contribution of each global change driver to local groundwater stress and measures the economic benefits of a scenario in which groundwater extraction caps and improved technology adoption began in 1997. We find that implementing a groundwater extraction cap combined with irrigation investment beginning in 1997 could have reduced global groundwater withdrawals by more than 34% by 2017, preserving over 5 trillion cubic meters of groundwater in aquifers, with the greatest reductions occurring in South Asia and the Western United States. This study contributes to the local-global analysis of the effects of global socio-economic drivers on earth systems through high-resolution, scenario-based modeling. 

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3. Agricultural Irrigation Effects on Hydrological Processes in the United States Northern High Plains Aquifer Simulated by the Coupled SWAT-MODFLOW System

   https://doi.org/10.3390/w14121938  

   Dangol, Sijal; Zhang, Xuesong; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando (June 2022, Water)

   Groundwater use for irrigation has a major influence on agricultural productivity and local water resources. This study evaluated the groundwater irrigation schemes, SWAT auto-irrigation scheduling based on plant water stress (Auto-Irr), and prescribed irrigation based on well pumping rates in MODFLOW (Well-Irr), in the U.S. Northern High Plains (NHP) aquifer using coupled SWAT-MODFLOW model simulations for the period 1982–2008. Auto-Irr generally performed better than Well-Irr in simulating groundwater irrigation volume (reducing the mean bias from 86 to −30%) and groundwater level (reducing the normalized root-mean-square-error from 13.55 to 12.47%) across the NHP, as well as streamflow interannual variations at two stations (increasing NSE from 0.51, 0.51 to 0.55, 0.53). We also examined the effects of groundwater irrigation on the water cycle. Based on simulation results from Auto-Irr, historical irrigation led to significant recharge along the Elkhorn and Platte rivers. On average over the entire NHP, irrigation increased surface runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and groundwater recharge by 21.3%, 4.0%, 2.5% and 1.5%, respectively. Irrigation improved crop water productivity by nearly 27.2% for corn and 23.8% for soybean. Therefore, designing sustainable irrigation practices to enhance crop productivity must consider both regional landscape characteristics and downstream hydrological consequences. 

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4. Sustainable Use of Groundwater May Dramatically Reduce Irrigated Production of Maize, Soybean, and Wheat

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002018  

   Lopez, Jose R.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Elliott, Joshua; Ruane, Alex C.; Porter, Cheryl; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Anderson, Martha; Hain, Christopher (December 2021, Earth's Future)

   Abstract Groundwater extraction in the United States (US) is unsustainable, making it essential to understand the impacts of limited water use on irrigated agriculture. To improve this understanding, we integrated a gridded crop model with satellite observations, recharge estimates, and water survey data to assess the effects of sustainable groundwater withdrawals on US irrigated agricultural production. The gridded crop model agrees with satellite‐based estimates of evapotranspiration (R² = 0.68), as well as survey data from the United States Department of Agriculture (R² = 0.82–0.94 for county‐level production and 0.37–0.54 for county‐level yield). Using the optimistic assumption that groundwater extraction equals effective aquifer recharge rate, we find that sustainable groundwater use decreases US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat by 20%, 6%, and 25%, respectively. Using a more conservative assumption of groundwater availability, US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat decreases by 45%, 37%, and 36%, respectively. The wide range of simulated losses is driven by considerable uncertainty in surface water and groundwater interactions, as well as accounting for the many aspects of sustainability. Our results demonstrate the vulnerability of US irrigated agriculture to unsustainable groundwater pumping, highlighting the difficulty of expanding or even maintaining irrigated food production in the face of climate change, population growth, and shifting dietary demands. These findings are based on reducing pumping by fallowing irrigated farmland; however, alternate pumping reduction strategies or technological advances in crop genetics and irrigation could produce different results. 

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5. Water shortage risks from perennial crop expansion in California’s Central Valley

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4035  

   Mall, Natalie K.; Herman, Jonathan D. (October 2019, Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract California’s Central Valley is one of the world’s most productive agricultural regions. Its high-value fruit, vegetable, and nut crops rely on surface water imports from a vast network of reservoirs and canals as well as groundwater, which has been substantially overdrafted to support irrigation. The region has undergone a shift to perennial (tree and vine) crops in recent decades, which has increased water demand amid a series of severe droughts and emerging regulations on groundwater pumping. This study quantifies the expansion of perennial crops in the Tulare Lake Basin, the southern region of the Central Valley with limited natural water availability. A gridded crop type dataset is compiled on a 1 mi²spatial resolution from a historical database of pesticide permits over the period 1974–2016 and validated against aggregated county-level data. This spatial dataset is then analyzed by irrigation district, the primary spatial scale at which surface water supplies are determined, to identify trends in planting decisions and agricultural water demand over time. Perennial crop acreage has nearly tripled over this period, and currently accounts for roughly 60% of planted area and 80% of annual revenue. These trends show little relationship with water availability and have been driven primarily by market demand. From this data, we focus on the increasing minimum irrigation needs each year to sustain perennial crops. Results indicate that under a range of plausible future regulations on groundwater pumping ranging from 10% to 50%, water supplies may fail to consistently meet demands, increasing losses by up to 30% of annual revenues. More broadly, the datasets developed in this work will support the development of dynamic models of the integrated water-agriculture system under uncertain climate and regulatory changes to understand the combined impacts of water supply shortages and intensifying irrigation demand. 

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