An official website of the United States government
Following severe environmental change that reduces mean population fitness below replacement, populations must adapt to avoid eventual extinction, a process called evolutionary rescue. Models of evolutionary rescue demonstrate that initial size, genetic variation and degree of maladaptation influence population fates. However, many models feature populations that grow without negative density dependence or with constant genetic diversity despite precipitous population decline, assumptions likely to be violated in conservation settings. We examined the simultaneous influences of density-dependent growth and erosion of genetic diversity on populations adapting to novel environmental change using stochastic, individual-based simulations. Density dependence decreased the probability of rescue and increased the probability of extinction, especially in large and initially well-adapted populations that previously have been predicted to be at low risk. Increased extinction occurred shortly following environmental change, as populations under density dependence experienced more rapid decline and reached smaller sizes. Populations that experienced evolutionary rescue lost genetic diversity through drift and adaptation, particularly under density dependence. Populations that declined to extinction entered an extinction vortex, where small size increased drift, loss of genetic diversity and the fixation of maladaptive alleles, hindered adaptation and kept populations at small densities where they were vulnerable to extinction via demographic stochasticity.
more »
« less
Mutational meltdown in asexual populations doomed to extinction
Asexual populations are expected to accumulate deleterious mutations through a process known as Muller’s ratchet. Lynch and colleagues proposed that the ratchet eventually results in a vicious cycle of mutation accumulation and population decline that drives populations to extinction. They called this phenomenon mutational meltdown. Here, we analyze mutational meltdown using a multi-type branching process model where, in the presence of mutation, populations are doomed to extinction. We analyse the change in size and composition of the population and the time of extinction under this model.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2014566
- PAR ID:
- 10480544
- Publisher / Repository:
- Springer
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Mathematical Biology
- Volume:
- 87
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 0303-6812
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1–24; 88
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- Mutational meltdown, Muller’s ratchet, Lethal mutagenesis, Extinction, Branching processes, Evolutionary rescue
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
ABSTRACT Theory, simulation, and experimental evolution demonstrate that diversified CRISPR-Cas immunity to lytic viruses can lead to stochastic virus extinction due to a limited number of susceptible hosts available to each potential new protospacer escape mutation. Under such conditions, theory predicts that to evade extinction, viruses evolve toward decreased virulence and promote vertical transmission and persistence in infected hosts. To better understand the evolution of host-virus interactions in microbial populations with active CRISPR-Cas immunity, we studied the interaction between CRISPR-immune Sulfolobus islandicus cells and immune-deficient strains that are infected by the chronic virus SSV9. We demonstrate that Sulfolobus islandicus cells infected with SSV9, and with other related SSVs, kill uninfected, immune strains through an antagonistic mechanism that is a protein and is independent of infectious virus. Cells that are infected with SSV9 are protected from killing and persist in the population. We hypothesize that this infection acts as a form of mutualism between the host and the virus by removing competitors in the population and ensuring continued vertical transmission of the virus within populations with diversified CRISPR-Cas immunity. IMPORTANCE Multiple studies, especially those focusing on the role of lytic viruses in key model systems, have shown the importance of viruses in shaping microbial populations. However, it has become increasingly clear that viruses with a long host-virus interaction, such as those with a chronic lifestyle, can be important drivers of evolution and have large impacts on host ecology. In this work, we describe one such interaction with the acidic crenarchaeon Sulfolobus islandicus and its chronic virus Sulfolobus spindle-shaped virus 9. Our work expands the view in which this symbiosis between host and virus evolved, describing a killing phenotype which we hypothesize has evolved in part due to the high prevalence and diversity of CRISPR-Cas immunity seen in natural populations. We explore the implications of this phenotype in population dynamics and host ecology, as well as the implications of mutualism between this virus-host pair.more » « less
-
null (Ed.)Simple models in theoretical ecology have a long-standing history of being used to understand how specific processes influence population dynamics as well as providing a foundation for future endeavors. The Levins model is the seminal example of this for continuous-time metapopulation dynamics. However, many natural populations have a distinct separation between processes and data is not collected continuously leading to the need for using a discrete-time model. Our goal is to develop a simple discrete-time metapopulation model of patch occupancy using difference equations. In our formulation, we consider the two fundamental processes of colonization and extinction that will be treated as sequential events and will only consider patch occupancy. To achieve this, we use a composition of two functions where one will reflect the extinction process and the other for the colonization process. Under some mild assumptions, we are able determine the dynamic behavior of the metapopulation. In addition, we provide numerous examples for the functions used to emulate the colonization and extinction processes. Our results illustrate that the dynamics of the model are tied to properties such as convexity and monotonicity of the colonization and extinction functions. In particular, if the model is non-monotone, then complex dynamics can arise such as cyclic and even chaotic behavior. Overall, our approach shows how certain properties of the colonization and extinction functions can influence metapopulation dynamics.more » « less
-
A population experiencing habitat loss can avoid extinction by undergoing genetic adaptation—a process known as evolutionary rescue. Here we analytically approximate the probability of evolutionary rescue via a niche-constructing mutation that allows carriers to convert a novel, unfavorable reproductive habitat to a favorable state at a cost to their fecundity. We analyze competition between mutants and non-niche-constructing wild types, who ultimately require the constructed habitats to reproduce. We find that over-exploitation of the constructed habitats by wild types can generate damped oscillations in population size shortly after mutant invasion, thereby decreasing the probability of rescue. Such post-invasion extinction is less probable when construction is infrequent, habitat loss is common, the reproductive environment is large, or the population’s carrying capacity is small. Under these conditions, wild types are less likely to encounter the constructed habitats and, consequently, mutants are more likely to fix. These results suggest that, without a mechanism that deters wild type inheritance of the constructed habitats, a population undergoing rescue via niche construction may remain prone to short-timescale extinction despite successful mutant invasion.more » « less
-
Baer, Charles (Ed.)Abstract Recent studies have highlighted variation in the mutational spectra among human populations as well as closely related hominoids—yet little remains known about the genetic and nongenetic factors driving these rate changes across the genome. Pinpointing the root causes of these differences is an important endeavor that requires careful comparative analyses of population-specific mutational landscapes at both broad and fine genomic scales. However, several factors can confound such analyses. Although previous studies have shown that technical artifacts, such as sequencing errors and batch effects, can contribute to observed mutational shifts, other potentially confounding parameters have received less attention thus far. Using population genetic simulations of human and chimpanzee populations as an illustrative example, we here show that the sample size required for robust inference of mutational spectra depends on the population-specific demographic history. As a consequence, the power to detect rate changes is high in certain hominoid populations while, for others, currently available sample sizes preclude analyses at fine genomic scales.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-023-02019-y
