Coastal flooding often exceeds homeowners’ capacity to cope with repetitive damages and profoundly disrupts their livelihoods. Permanent relocation has been proposed as a solution for some coastal areas experiencing recurrent flooding and anticipating acceleration of impacts. However, it is unclear if homeowners living in such areas would support this strategy, where they would choose to go, and why. This study evaluates the willingness to relocate and the reasoning behind it among rural and urban homeowners residing in coastal high-risk areas. The rural versus urban comparison explores how attitudes toward relocation differ between these settings with distinct sociodemographic, economic, and cultural profiles. A mail survey administered on the Eastern Shore, Maryland, and in the Hampton Roads metropolitan area, Virginia, measured how willingness to relocate differs across the socioeconomic spectrum, prior flood exposure, concerns with flood impacts, and preferences for relocation destination. The survey responses were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The results show that more than one-third of respondents would consider relocating. The willingness to relocate was marginally influenced by socioeconomic factors and flood experiences and instead was significantly correlated with the risk of disastrous flooding, inadequate insurance compensation, and worsening crime. However, data show a clear shift in relocation support and the distance of the preferred destination from minor to significant flooding. Rural respondents are slightly less likely to relocate than urban ones. Descriptive statistics indicate nuanced differences in flood experiences, reasons to relocate, and preferences for a new destination between rural and urban populations.
Spatiotemporal implications of flooding on relocation risk in rural and urban coastal municipalities
The research on coastal hazards predicts substantial adverse impacts of chronic and episodic flooding on populated coastal areas. Despite the growing evidence about anticipated flood risks, many coastal communities are still not adapting. The observed disconnect between science on physical impacts and adaptation decisionmaking in part reflects stakeholders’ inability to envision the implications of these impacts on socioeconomic systems and the built environment in their jurisdictions. This inertia is particularly apparent in the discourse on flood-driven displacement and relocation. There is a lack of knowledge about direct and indirect flood impacts on community attributes and services that contribute to relocation decision-making. This study holistically evaluates the flood exposure on municipal features vital for socioeconomic stability, livelihoods, and quality of life across spatiotemporal scales. As such, it uses a more nuanced approach to relocation risk assessment than those solely focused on direct inundation impacts. It measures flood exposure of land use, land cover, and sociocultural and economic dimensions that are important drivers of relocation in selected rural and urban areas. The approach uses a 50-year floodplain to delineate populated coastal locations exposed to 2% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) storm surge projections adjusted for 2030, 2060, and 2090 sea level rise (SLR) scenarios. It then evaluates the potential impacts of this flood exposure on different types of land uses and critical socioeconomic assets in rural (Dorchester and Talbot Counties, Maryland, USA) and urban (Cities of Hampton, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Virginia Beach, Virginia, USA) settings. The results show that some urban land uses, such as open space, military and mixed-use, and rural residential and commercial areas, might experience significantly more flooding. There are also notable differences in the baseline flood exposure and the anticipated rate and acceleration in the future among selected communities with significant implications for relocation planning.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1920478
- PAR ID:
- 10482470
- Publisher / Repository:
- Elsevier
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Land Use Policy
- Volume:
- 132
- Issue:
- C
- ISSN:
- 0264-8377
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 106754
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- Coastal Flooding Sea level rise Relocation Land use Exposure
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract -
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Abstract Many urban coastal communities are experiencing more profound flood impacts due to accelerated sea level rise that sometimes exceed their capacity to protect the built environment. In such cases, relocation may serve as a more effective hazard mitigation and adaptation strategy. However, it is unclear how urban residents living in flood-prone locations perceive the possibility of relocation and under what circumstances they would consider moving. Understanding the factors affecting an individual’s willingness to relocate because of coastal flooding is vital for developing accessible and equitable relocation policies. The main objective of this study is to identify the key considerations that would prompt urban coastal residents to consider permanent relocation because of coastal flooding. We leverage survey data collected from urban areas along the East Coast, assessing attitudes toward relocation, and design an artificial neural network (ANN) and a random forest (RF) model to find patterns in the survey data and indicate which considerations impact the decision to consider relocation. We trained the models to predict whether respondents would relocate because of socioeconomic factors, past exposure and experiences with flooding, and their flood-related concerns. Analyses performed on the models highlight the importance of flood-related concerns that accurately predict relocation behavior. Some common factors among the model analyses are concerns with increasing crime, the possibility of experiencing one more flood per year in the future, and more frequent business closures resulting from flooding.
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Flooding is a natural hazard that touches nearly all facets of the globe and is expected to become more frequent and intensified due to climate and land-use change. However, flooding does not impact all individuals equally. Therefore, understanding how flooding impacts distribute across populations of different socioeconomic and demographic backgrounds is vital. One approach to reducing flood risk on people is using indicators, such as social vulnerability indices and flood exposure metrics, to inform decision-making for flood risk management. However, such indicators can face the scale and zonal effect produced by the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). This study investigates how the U.S. Census block group, tract, and county scale selection impacts social vulnerability and flood exposure outcomes within coastal Virginia, USA. Here we show how (1) scale selection can obstruct our understanding of drivers of vulnerability, (2) increasingly aggregated scales significantly undercount highly vulnerable populations, and (3) hotspot clusters of social vulnerability and flood exposure can identify variable priority areas for current and future flood risk reduction. Study results present considerations about using such indicators, given the real-life consequences that can occur due to the MAUP. The results of this work warrant understanding the implications of scale selection on research methodological approaches and what this means for practitioners and policymakers that utilize such information to help guide flood mitigation strategies.more » « less
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Coastal communities are increasingly exposed to more intense and frequent hurricanes, accelerated sea-level rise, and prolonged tidal inundation, yet they are often a preferred retirement destination for older adults vulnerable to flooding and extreme weather events. The unique physical and psychosocial challenges of older population age 65 and over may affect their level of preparedness, capacity to cope with, and ability to respond and recover from a hazard event. Despite the clear vulnerabilities of older residents living in high-risk areas when compared to younger coastal populations, there is a lack of empirical research on the integrated flood risks to this population group in the coastal context. This paper provides a holistic assessment of this emerging problem along the U.S. East Coast by measuring the exposure of older population to sea level rise and storm surge in coastal counties. It further evaluates how age-related vulnerabilities differ between rural and urban settings using the case study approach and geospatial and statistical analysis the paper also conducts a review of scientific literature to identify gaps in the current understanding of health and well-being risks to aging populations in coastal communities. The results show that older populations are unevenly distributed along the U.S. East Coast with some states and counties having significantly higher percent of residents age 65 and older living along the shoreline. Many places with larger older populations have other attributes that further shape the vulnerability of this age group such as older housing stock, disabilities, and lower income and that often differ between rural and urban settings. Lastly, our study found that vast majority of research on aging in high-risk coastal locations has been conducted in relation to major disasters and almost none on the recurrent nuisance flooding that is already affecting many coastal communities.more » « less
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Whilst future air temperature thresholds have become the centrepiece of international climate negotiations, even the most ambitious target of 1.5 °C will result in significant sea-level rise and associated impacts on human populations globally. Of additional concern in Arctic regions is declining sea ice and warming permafrost which can increasingly expose coastal areas to erosion particularly through exposure to wave action due to storm activity. Regional variability over the past two decades provides insight into the coastal and human responses to anticipated future rates of sea-level rise under 1.5 °C scenarios. Exceeding 1.5 °C will generate sea-level rise scenarios beyond that currently experienced and substantially increase the proportion of the global population impacted. Despite these dire challenges, there has been limited analysis of how, where and why communities will relocate inland in response. Here, we present case studies of local responses to coastal erosion driven by sealevel rise and warming in remote indigenous communities of the Solomon Islands and Alaska, USA, respectively. In both the Solomon Islands and the USA, there is no national government agency that has the organisational and technical capacity and resourcestofacilitateacommunity-widerelocation.IntheSolomonIslands,communitieshavebeenabletodrawonflexibleland tenure regimes to rapidly adapt to coastal erosion through relocations. These relocations have led to ad hoc fragmentation of communitiesintosmallerhamlets.Government-supportedrelocationinitiativesinbothcountrieshavebeenlesssuccessfulinthe short term due to limitations of land tenure, lacking relocation governance framework, financial support and complex planning processes.Theseexperiences fromthe Solomon Islands and USA demonstrate the urgentneedtocreatea relocation governance framework that protects people’s human rights.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106754
