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Precise estimation of treatment effects is crucial for accurately evaluating the intervention. While deep learning models have exhibited promising performance in learning counterfactual representations for treatment effect estimation (TEE), a major limitation in most of these models is that they often overlook the diversity of treatment effects across potential subgroups that have varying treatment effects and characteristics, treating the entire population as a homogeneous group. This limitation restricts the ability to precisely estimate treatment effects and provide targeted treatment recommendations. In this paper, we propose a novel treatment effect estimation model, named SubgroupTE, which incorporates subgroup identification in TEE. SubgroupTE identifies heterogeneous subgroups with different responses and more precisely estimates treatment effects by considering subgroup-specific treatment effects in the estimation process. In addition, we introduce an expectation–maximization (EM)-based training process that iteratively optimizes estimation and subgrouping networks to improve both estimation and subgroup identification. Comprehensive experiments on the synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate the outstanding performance of SubgroupTE compared to the existing works for treatment effect estimation and subgrouping models. Additionally, a real-world study demonstrates the capabilities of SubgroupTE in enhancing targeted treatment recommendations for patients with opioid use disorder (OUD) by incorporating subgroup identification with treatment effect estimation.
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Examining User Heterogeneity in Digital Experiments
Digital experiments are routinely used to test the value of a treatment relative to a status quo control setting — for instance, a new search relevance algorithm for a website or a new results layout for a mobile app. As digital experiments have become increasingly pervasive in organizations and a wide variety of research areas, their growth has prompted a new set of challenges for experimentation platforms. One challenge is that experiments often focus on the average treatment effect (ATE) without explicitly considering differences across major sub-groups — heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE). This is especially problematic because ATEs have decreased in many organizations as the more obvious benefits have already been realized. However, questions abound regarding the pervasiveness of user HTEs and how best to detect them. We propose a framework for detecting and analyzing user HTEs in digital experiments. Our framework combines an array of user characteristics with double machine learning. Analysis of 27 real-world experiments spanning 1.76 billion sessions and simulated data demonstrates the effectiveness of our detection method relative to existing techniques. We also find that transaction, demographic, engagement, satisfaction, and lifecycle characteristics exhibit statistically significant HTEs in 10% to 20% of our real-world experiments, underscoring the importance of considering user heterogeneity when analyzing experiment results, otherwise personalized features and experiences cannot happen, thus reducing effectiveness. In terms of the number of experiments and user sessions, we are not aware of any study that has examined user HTEs at this scale. Our findings have important implications for information retrieval, user modeling, platforms, and digital experience contexts, in which online experiments are often used to evaluate the effectiveness of design artifacts.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2039915
- PAR ID:
- 10482734
- Publisher / Repository:
- Association for Computing Machinery (ACM)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- ACM Transactions on Information Systems
- ISSN:
- 1046-8188
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1145/3578931
