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Abstract The mean-state bias and the associated forecast errors of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated in a suite of 2-yr-lead retrospective forecasts conducted with the Community Earth System Model, version 1, for 1954–2015. The equatorial Pacific cold tongue in the forecasts is too strong and extends excessively westward due to a combination of the model’s inherent climatological bias, initialization imbalance, and errors in initial ocean data. The forecasts show a stronger cold tongue bias in the first year than that inherent to the model due to the imbalance between initial subsurface oceanic states and model dynamics. The cold tongue bias affects not only the pattern and amplitude but also the duration of ENSO in the forecasts by altering ocean–atmosphere feedbacks. The predicted sea surface temperature anomalies related to ENSO extend to the far western equatorial Pacific during boreal summer when the cold tongue bias is strong, and the predicted ENSO anomalies are too weak in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. The forecast errors of pattern and amplitude subsequently lead to errors in ENSO phase transition by affecting the amplitude of the negative thermocline feedback in the equatorial Pacific and tropical interbasin adjustments during the mature phase of ENSO. These ENSO forecast errors further degrade the predictions of wintertime atmospheric teleconnections, land surface air temperature, and rainfall anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere. These mean-state and ENSO forecast biases are more pronounced in forecasts initialized in boreal spring–summer than other seasons due to the seasonal intensification of the Bjerknes feedback.
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The Tropical Pacific Annual Cycle and ENSO in PMIP4 Simulations of the Mid‐Holocene
We investigate the tropical Pacific annual cycle and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in four mid‐Holocene simulations. Our results show that both ENSO variability and the amplitude of the annual cycle of the tropical Pacific cold tongue are reduced under mid‐Holocene forcing, along with a modified annual cycle in ENSO variance. The weakened annual cycle of the cold tongue is attributed to an ocean dynamical response to westerly wind anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific in boreal spring in addition to a thermodynamic response to local insolation changes in the eastern Pacific. The anomalous westerly winds in boreal spring excite an annual downwelling Kelvin wave that deepens the thermocline and propagates eastward along the equator, reaching the central and eastern equatorial Pacific during the development season of ENSO in boreal summer. Upon reaching the eastern Pacific, the downwelling Kelvin wave deepens the near‐surface thermocline, warming the surface ocean and weakening the local ocean‐atmosphere coupling critical to the growth of ENSO events. The westerly wind anomaly is associated with a shift in convection in the western Pacific driven by greater cooling of the Maritime Continent than western Pacific Ocean during the first half of the year (January to June) under tropical insolation forcing. By elucidating a common set of mechanisms responsible for a reduced cold tongue annual cycle and ENSO variability in a diverse range of mid‐Holocene simulations, this work yields important insight into the linkages between the tropical Pacific annual cycle and ENSO that are critical for understanding tropical Pacific climate variability.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1903640
- PAR ID:
- 10483757
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Geophysical Union
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
- Volume:
- 127
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 2169-9275
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017587
