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1. Estimates of Pliocene Tropical Pacific Temperature Sensitivity to Radiative Greenhouse Gas Forcing

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2018PA003461  

   Ford, Heather L. ; Ravelo, A. Christina ( January 2019 , Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology)

   The Western Equatorial Pacific (WEP) warm pool, with surface temperatures >28 °C and a deep thermocline, is an important source of latent and sensible heat for the global climate system. Because the tropics are not sensitive to ice‐albedo feedbacks, the WEP's response to radiative forcing can be used to constrain a minimum estimate of Earth system sensitivity. Climate modeling ofpCO₂‐radiative warming projections shows little change in WEP variability; here we use temperature distributions of individual surface and subsurface dwelling fossil foraminifera to evaluate past variability and possible radiative and dynamic climate forcing over the Plio‐Pleistocene. We investigate WEP warm pool variability within paired glacial‐interglacial (G‐IG) intervals for four times: the Holocene‐Last Glacial Maximum, ~2, ~3, and ~4 Ma. Our results show that these surface and subsurface temperature distributions are similar for all G‐IG pairs, indicating no change in variability, even aspCO₂‐radiative forcing and other boundary conditions changed on G‐IG timescales. Plio‐Pleistocene sea surface temperature (SST) distributions are similar to those from the Holocene, indicating WEP SSTs respond topCO₂‐radiative forcing and associated feedbacks. In contrast, Plio‐Pleistocene subsurface temperature distributions suggest subsurface temperatures respond to changes in thermocline temperature and depth. We estimate tropical temperature sensitivity for the mid‐Pliocene (~3 Ma) using our individual foraminifera SST data set and a previously published high‐resolution boron isotope‐basedpCO₂reconstruction. We find tropical temperature sensitivity was equal to, or less than, that of the Late Pleistocene.

    

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2. The Tropical Pacific Annual Cycle and ENSO in PMIP4 Simulations of the Mid‐Holocene

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017587  

   Zhang, Xiaolin ; Atwood, Alyssa R. ; Nag, Bappaditya ; Cobb, Kim M. ( August 2022 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans)

   We investigate the tropical Pacific annual cycle and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in four mid‐Holocene simulations. Our results show that both ENSO variability and the amplitude of the annual cycle of the tropical Pacific cold tongue are reduced under mid‐Holocene forcing, along with a modified annual cycle in ENSO variance. The weakened annual cycle of the cold tongue is attributed to an ocean dynamical response to westerly wind anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific in boreal spring in addition to a thermodynamic response to local insolation changes in the eastern Pacific. The anomalous westerly winds in boreal spring excite an annual downwelling Kelvin wave that deepens the thermocline and propagates eastward along the equator, reaching the central and eastern equatorial Pacific during the development season of ENSO in boreal summer. Upon reaching the eastern Pacific, the downwelling Kelvin wave deepens the near‐surface thermocline, warming the surface ocean and weakening the local ocean‐atmosphere coupling critical to the growth of ENSO events. The westerly wind anomaly is associated with a shift in convection in the western Pacific driven by greater cooling of the Maritime Continent than western Pacific Ocean during the first half of the year (January to June) under tropical insolation forcing. By elucidating a common set of mechanisms responsible for a reduced cold tongue annual cycle and ENSO variability in a diverse range of mid‐Holocene simulations, this work yields important insight into the linkages between the tropical Pacific annual cycle and ENSO that are critical for understanding tropical Pacific climate variability. 

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3. 100 Years of Progress in Understanding the Dynamics of Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Variability

   https://doi.org/10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-18-0025.1  

   Battisti, David S. ; Vimont, Daniel J. ; Kirtman, Benjamin P. ( October 2019 , Meteorological Monographs)

   In situ observation networks and reanalyses products of the state of the atmosphere and upper ocean show well-defined, large-scale patterns of coupled climate variability on time scales ranging from seasons to several decades. We summarize these phenomena and their physics, which have been revealed by analysis of observations, by experimentation with uncoupled and coupled atmosphere and ocean models with a hierarchy of complexity, and by theoretical developments. We start with a discussion of the seasonal cycle in the equatorial tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, which are clearly affected by coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean. We then discuss the tropical phenomena that only exist because of the coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean: the Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific, and a phenomenon analogous to ENSO in the Atlantic. For ENSO, we further discuss the sources of irregularity and asymmetry between warm and cold phases of ENSO, and the response of ENSO to forcing. Fundamental to variability on all time scales in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are preferred patterns of uncoupled atmospheric variability that exist independent of any changes in the state of the ocean, land, or distribution of sea ice. These patterns include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern; they are most active in wintertime, with a temporal spectrum that is nearly white. Stochastic variability in the NPO, PNA, and NAO force the ocean on days to interannual times scales by way of turbulent heat exchange and Ekman transport, and on decadal and longer time scales by way of wind stress forcing. The PNA is partially responsible for the Pacific decadal oscillation; the NAO is responsible for an analogous phenomenon in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. In models, stochastic forcing by the NAO also gives rise to variability in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that is partially responsible for multidecadal anomalies in the North Atlantic climate known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO); observations do not yet exist to adequately determine the physics of the AMO. We review the progress that has been made in the past 50 years in understanding each of these phenomena and the implications for short-term (seasonal-to-interannual) climate forecasts. We end with a brief discussion of advances of things that are on the horizon, under the rug, and over the rainbow.

    

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4. Western Pacific Warm Pool

   https://doi.org/10.14379/iodp.proc.363.2018  

   Rosenthal, Y. ; Holbourn, A.E. ; Kulhanek, D.K. ( June 2018 , Proceedings of the International Ocean Discovery Program)

   null (Ed.)

   International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 363 sought to document the regional expression and driving mechanisms of climate variability (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and productivity) in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) as it relates to the evolution of Neogene climate on millennial, orbital, and geological timescales. To achieve our objectives, we selected sites with a wide geographical distribution and variable oceanographic and depositional settings. Nine sites were cored during Expedition 363, recovering a total of 6956 m of sediment in 875–3421 m water depth with an average recovery of 101.3% during 39.6 days of on-site operations. Two moderate sedimentation rate (~3–10 cm/ky) sites are located off northwestern Australia at the southwestern maximum extent of the IPWP and span the late Miocene to present. Seven of the nine sites are situated at the heart of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP), including two sites on the northern margin of Papua New Guinea with very high sedimentation rates (>60 cm/ky) spanning the past ~450 ky, two sites in the Manus Basin (north of Papua New Guinea) with moderate sedimentation rates (~4–14 cm/ky) recovering upper Pliocene to present sequences, and three sites with low sedimentation rates (~1–3 cm/ky) on the southern and northern Eauripik Rise spanning the early Miocene to present. The wide spatial distribution of the cores, variable accumulation rates, exceptional biostratigraphic and paleomagnetic age constraints, and mostly excellent or very good foraminifer preservation will allow us to trace the evolution of the IPWP through the Neogene at different temporal resolutions, meeting the primary objectives of Expedition 363. Specifically, the high–sedimentation rate cores off Papua New Guinea will allow us to better constrain mechanisms influencing millennial-scale variability in the WPWP, their links to high-latitude climate variability, and implications for temperature and precipitation in this region under variable mean-state climate conditions. Furthermore, the high accumulation rates offer the opportunity to study climate variability during previous warm periods at a resolution similar to that of existing studies of the Holocene. With excellent recovery, Expedition 363 sites are suitable for detailed paleoceanographic reconstructions at orbital and suborbital resolution from the middle Miocene to Pleistocene and thus will be used to refine the astronomical tuning, biostratigraphy, magnetostratigraphy, and isotope stratigraphy of hitherto poorly constrained intervals within the Neogene timescale (e.g., the late Miocene) and to reconstruct the history of the Asian-Australian monsoon and the Indonesian Throughflow on orbital and tectonic timescales. Results from high-resolution interstitial water sampling at selected sites will be used to reconstruct density profiles of the western equatorial Pacific deep water during the Last Glacial Maximum. Additional geochemical analyses of interstitial water samples in this tectonically active region will be used to investigate volcanogenic mineral and carbonate weathering and their possible implications for the evolution of Neogene climate. 

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5. Expedition 363 Preliminary Report: Western Pacific Warm Pool

   https://doi.org/10.14379/iodp.pr.363.2017  

   Rosenthal, Y. ; Holbourn, A.E. ; Kulhanek, D.K. ( February 2017 , Preliminary report)

   null (Ed.)

   International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 363 sought to document the regional expression and driving mechanisms of climate variability (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and productivity) in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) as it relates to the evolution of Neogene climate on millennial, orbital, and geological timescales. To achieve our objectives, we selected sites with wide geographical distribution and variable oceanographic and depositional settings. Nine sites were cored during Expedition 363, recovering a total of 6956 m of sediment in 875–3421 m water depth with an average recovery of 101.3% during 39.6 days of on-site operations. Two sites are located off northwestern Australia at the southern extent of the WPWP and span the late Miocene to present. Seven sites are situated at the heart of the WPWP, including two sites on the northern margin of Papua New Guinea (PNG) with very high sedimentation rates spanning the past ~450 ky, two sites in the Manus Basin north of PNG with moderate sedimentation rates recovering upper Pliocene to present sequences, and three low sedimentation rate sites on the southern and northern parts of the Eauripik Rise spanning the early Miocene to present. The wide spatial distribution of the cores, variable accumulation rates, exceptional biostratigraphic and paleomagnetic age constraints, and mostly excellent foraminifer preservation will allow us to trace the evolution of the WPWP through the Neogene at different temporal resolutions, meeting the primary objectives of Expedition 363. Specifically, the high sedimentation–rate cores off PNG will allow us to better constrain mechanisms influencing millennial-scale variability in the WPWP, their links to high-latitude climate variability, and implications for temperature and precipitation variations in this region under variable climate conditions. Furthermore, these high accumulation rates offer the opportunity to study climate variability during previous warm periods at a resolution similar to existing studies of the Holocene. With excellent recovery, Expedition 363 sites are suitable for detailed paleoceanographic reconstructions at orbital and suborbital resolution from the middle Miocene to Pleistocene, and thus will be used to refine the astronomical tuning, magneto-, isotope, and biostratigraphy of hitherto poorly constrained intervals within the Neogene timescale (e.g., the late Miocene) and to reconstruct the history of the East Asian and Australian monsoon and the Indonesian Throughflow on orbital and tectonic timescales. Results from high-resolution interstitial water sampling at selected sites will be used to reconstruct density profiles of the western equatorial Pacific deep water during the Last Glacial Maximum. Additional geochemical analyses of interstitial water samples in this tectonically active region will be used to investigate volcanogenic mineral and carbonate weathering and their possible implications for the evolution of Neogene climate. 

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