We review recent trends and projected future physical and chemical changes under climate change in transition zones between Arctic and Subarctic regions with a focus on the two major inflow gateways to the Arctic, one in the Pacific (i.e. Bering Sea, Bering Strait, and the Chukchi Sea) and the other in the Atlantic (i.e. Fram Strait and the Barents Sea). Sea-ice coverage in the gateways has been disappearing during the last few decades. Projected higher air and sea temperatures in these gateways in the future will further reduce sea ice, and cause its later formation and earlier retreat. An intensification of the hydrological cycle will result in less snow, more rain, and increased river runoff. Ocean temperatures are projected to increase, leading to higher heat fluxes through the gateways. Increased upwelling at the Arctic continental shelf is expected as sea ice retreats. The pH of the water will decline as more atmospheric CO2 is absorbed. Long-term surface nutrient levels in the gateways will likely decrease due to increased stratification and reduced vertical mixing. Some effects of these environmental changes on humans in Arctic coastal communities are also presented.
This content will become publicly available on December 28, 2024
The Pacific oceanic input to the Arctic via the Bering Strait (important for western Arctic ice retreat, water properties, and nutrient supply) has been increasing for three decades. Using satellite Ocean Bottom Pressure (OBP) and Dynamic Ocean Topography (DOT) data, we show that long‐term trends in mooring data for a well‐sampled sub‐period (2003–2014) relate to summer OBP and DOT drop in the Arctic's East Siberian Sea (ESS), in turn caused by stronger westward ESS winds, and increased fall westward winds in the Bering Sea. OBP/DOT differences imply strong (0.17 psu/year) ESS salinization, likely caused by hitherto unappreciated increased Pacific inflow to that region. We find ESS OBP trends are (erroneously) reversed in older data versions, and estimate that ESS salinization may significantly mediate Bering Strait flow increase. These facts may explain why models assimilating older OBP data, or with erroneous Bering Strait salinities, fail to simulate observed Bering Strait flow increase.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10490047
- Publisher / Repository:
- AGU
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 50
- Issue:
- 24
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
Abstract -
more » « less
Abstract The Bering Strait oceanic heat transport influences seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea. Monitored since 1990, it depends on water temperature and factors controlling the volume transport, assumed to be local winds in the strait and an oceanic pressure difference between the Pacific and Arctic oceans (the “pressure head”). Recent work suggests that variability in the pressure head, especially during summer, relates to the strength of the zonal wind in the East Siberian Sea that raises or drops sea surface height in this area via Ekman transport. We confirm that westward winds in the East Siberian Sea relate to a broader central Arctic pattern of high sea level pressure and note that anticyclonic winds over the central Arctic Ocean also favor low September sea ice extent for the Arctic as a whole by promoting ice convergence and positive temperature anomalies. Month‐to‐month persistence in the volume transport and atmospheric circulation patterns is low, but the period 1980–2017 had a significant summertime (June–August) trend toward higher sea level pressure over the central Arctic Ocean, favoring increased transports. Some recent large heat transports are associated with high water temperatures, consistent with persistence of open water in the Chukchi Sea into winter and early ice retreat in spring. The highest heat transport recorded, October 2016, resulted from high water temperatures and ideal wind conditions yielding a record‐high volume transport. November and December 2005, the only months with southward volume (and thus heat) transports, were associated with southward winds in the strait.
-
Arctic Ocean gateway fluxes play a crucial role in linking the Arctic with the global ocean and affecting climate and marine ecosystems. We reviewed past studies on Arctic–Subarctic ocean linkages and examined their changes and driving mechanisms. Our review highlights that radical changes occurred in the inflows and outflows of the Arctic Ocean during the 2010s. Specifically, the Pacific inflow temperature in the Bering Strait and Atlantic inflow temperature in the Fram Strait hit record highs, while the Pacific inflow salinity in the Bering Strait and Arctic outflow salinity in the Davis and Fram straits hit record lows. Both the ocean heat convergence from lower latitudes to the Arctic and the hydrological cycle connecting the Arctic with Subarctic seas were stronger in 2000–2020 than in 1980–2000. CMIP6 models project a continuing increase in poleward ocean heat convergence in the 21st century, mainly due to warming of inflow waters. They also predict an increase in freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean, with the largest increase in freshwater export expected to occur in the Fram Strait due to both increased ocean volume export and decreased salinity. Fram Strait sea ice volume export hit a record low in the 2010s and is projected to continue to decrease along with Arctic sea ice decline. We quantitatively attribute the variability of the volume, heat, and freshwater transports in the Arctic gateways to forcing within and outside the Arctic based on dedicated numerical simulations and emphasize the importance of both origins in driving the variability.more » « less
-
more » « less
Abstract Stable oxygen isotopes (δ18O) in the Bona‐Churchill (B‐C) ice core from southeast Alaska provide a valuable, high‐resolution history of climate variability and sea ice cover in the western Arctic over the last 800 years. Multiple ice cores have been collected from the Wrangell‐St. Elias Mountain Range; however, their δ18O records exhibit little consistency as each core offers a unique view on local, regional, and/or global climate variability. To explore the primary mechanisms influencing the isotopic signature at the B‐C site, we utilize isotope‐enabled model data, reanalysis data, and observations, which all indicate a strong connection between isotopes at the B‐C site and western Arctic climate, likely established by the location of the storm track in this region. Enriched B‐C δ18O reflects increased southerly flow and warmer waters in the Bering Sea, which modulates the heat flux through the Bering Strait and into the Arctic, thereby affecting sea ice cover in the western Arctic. The B‐C δ18O paleorecord shares some remarkable similarities (
r = −0.80,p < .001) with the duration of western arctic sea ice cover reconstructed from a Chukchi Sea sediment core. Interestingly, during the Little Ice Age, enriched δ18O and reduced western Arctic sea ice are observed and may be indicative of prolonged periods of the warm Arctic/cold continents pattern and a northwestward shift of the North Pacific storm track. -
more » « less
Abstract A regional data‐constrained coupled ocean‐sea ice general circulation model and its adjoint are used to investigate mechanisms controlling the volume transport variability through Bering Strait during 2002 to 2013. Comprehensive time‐resolved sensitivity maps of Bering Strait transport to atmospheric forcing can be accurately computed with the adjoint along the forward model trajectory to identify spatial and temporal scales most relevant to the strait's transport variability. The simulated Bering Strait transport anomaly is found to be controlled primarily by the wind stress on short time scales of order 1 month. Spatial decomposition indicates that on monthly time scales winds over the Bering and the combined Chukchi and East Siberian Seas are the most significant drivers. Continental shelf waves and coastally trapped waves are suggested as the dominant mechanisms for propagating information from the far field to the strait. In years with transport extrema, eastward wind stress anomalies in the Arctic sector are found to be the dominant control, with correlation coefficient of 0.94. This implies that atmospheric variability over the Arctic plays a substantial role in determining Bering Strait flow variability. The near‐linear response of the transport anomaly to wind stress allows for predictive skill at interannual time scales, thus potentially enabling skillful prediction of changes at this important Pacific‐Arctic gateway, provided that accurate measurements of surface winds in the Arctic can be obtained. The novelty of this work is the use of space and time‐resolved adjoint‐based sensitivity maps, which enable detailed dynamical, that is, causal attribution of the impacts of different forcings.
