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1. The Universe at z > 10: predictions for JWST from the universemachine DR1

   https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/staa3164  

   Behroozi, Peter; Conroy, Charlie; Wechsler, Risa H; Hearin, Andrew; Williams, Christina C; Moster, Benjamin P; Yung, L Y; Somerville, Rachel S; Gottlöber, Stefan; Yepes, Gustavo; et al (November 2020, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)

   null (Ed.)

   ABSTRACT The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is expected to observe galaxies at z > 10 that are presently inaccessible. Here, we use a self-consistent empirical model, the universemachine, to generate mock galaxy catalogues and light-cones over the redshift range z = 0−15. These data include realistic galaxy properties (stellar masses, star formation rates, and UV luminosities), galaxy–halo relationships, and galaxy–galaxy clustering. Mock observables are also provided for different model parameters spanning observational uncertainties at z < 10. We predict that Cycle 1 JWST surveys will very likely detect galaxies with M* > 107 M⊙ and/or M1500 < −17 out to at least z ∼ 13.5. Number density uncertainties at z > 12 expand dramatically, so efforts to detect z > 12 galaxies will provide the most valuable constraints on galaxy formation models. The faint-end slopes of the stellar mass/luminosity functions at a given mass/luminosity threshold steepen as redshift increases. This is because observable galaxies are hosted by haloes in the exponentially falling regime of the halo mass function at high redshifts. Hence, these faint-end slopes are robustly predicted to become shallower below current observable limits (M* < 107 M⊙ or M1500 > −17). For reionization models, extrapolating luminosity functions with a constant faint-end slope from M1500 = −17 down to M1500 = −12 gives the most reasonable upper limit for the total UV luminosity and cosmic star formation rate up to z ∼ 12. We compare to three other empirical models and one semi-analytic model, showing that the range of predicted observables from our approach encompasses predictions from other techniques. Public catalogues and light-cones for common fields are available online. 

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2. Breaking degeneracies in the first galaxies with clustering

   https://doi.org/10.1093/mnrasl/slad115  

   Muñoz, Julian_B; Mirocha, Jordan; Furlanetto, Steven; Sabti, Nashwan (August 2023, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society: Letters)

   ABSTRACT The high-redshift galaxy UV luminosity function (UVLF) has become essential for understanding the formation and evolution of the first galaxies. Yet, UVLFs only measure galaxy abundances, giving rise to a degeneracy between the mean galaxy luminosity and its stochasticity. Here, we show that upcoming clustering measurements with the JWST, as well as with Roman, will be able to break this degeneracy, even at redshifts z ≳ 10. First, we demonstrate that current Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) measurements of the galaxy bias at z ∼ 4–6 point to a relatively tight halo-galaxy connection, with low stochasticity. Then, we show that the larger UVLFs observed by JWST at z ≳ 10 can be explained with either a boosted average UV emission or an enhanced stochasticity. These two models, however, predict different galaxy biases, which are potentially distinguishable in JWST and Roman surveys. Galaxy-clustering measurements, therefore, will provide crucial insights into the connection between the first galaxies and their dark-matter haloes, and identify the root cause of the enhanced abundance of z ≳ 10 galaxies revealed with JWST during its first year of operations. 

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3. Detection of stellar light from quasar host galaxies at redshifts above 6

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06345-5  

   Ding, Xuheng; Onoue, Masafusa; Silverman, John D.; Matsuoka, Yoshiki; Izumi, Takuma; Strauss, Michael A.; Jahnke, Knud; Phillips, Camryn L.; Li, Junyao; Volonteri, Marta; et al (June 2023, Nature)

   The detection of starlight from the host galaxies of quasars during the reionization epoch (z > 6) has been elusive, even with deep HST observations1,2. The current highest redshift quasar host detected3, at z = 4.5, required the magnifying effect of a foreground lensing galaxy. Low-luminosity quasars4,5,6 from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP)7 mitigate the challenge of detecting their underlying, previously-undetected host galaxies. Here we report rest-frame optical images and spectroscopy of two HSC-SSP quasars at z > 6 with JWST. Using NIRCam imaging at 3.6μm and 1.5μm and subtracting the light from the unresolved quasars, we find that the host galaxies are massive (stellar masses of 13 × and 3.4 × 1010 M⊙, respectively), compact, and disk-like. NIRSpec medium-resolution spectroscopy shows stellar absorption lines in the more massive quasar, confirming the detection of the host. Velocity-broadened gas in the vicinity of these quasars enables measurements of their black hole masses (1.4 × 109 and 2.0 × 108 M⊙, respectively). Their location in the black hole mass - stellar mass plane is consistent with the distribution at low redshift, suggesting that the relation between black holes and their host galaxies was already in place less than a billion years after the Big Bang. 

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4. Clustering with JWST: Constraining galaxy host halo masses, satellite quenching efficiencies, and merger rates at z  = 4−10

   https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/staa324  

   Endsley, Ryan; Behroozi, Peter; Stark, Daniel P; Williams, Christina C; Robertson, Brant E; Rieke, Marcia; Gottlöber, Stefan; Yepes, Gustavo (March 2020, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)

   ABSTRACT Galaxy clustering measurements can be used to constrain many aspects of galaxy evolution, including galaxy host halo masses, satellite quenching efficiencies, and merger rates. We simulate JWST galaxy clustering measurements at z ∼ 4–10 by utilizing mock galaxy samples produced by an empirical model, the universemachine. We also adopt the survey footprints and typical depths of the planned joint NIRCam and NIRSpec Guaranteed Time Observation program planned for Cycle 1 to generate realistic JWST survey realizations and to model high-redshift galaxy selection completeness. We find that galaxy clustering will be measured with ≳5σ significance at z ∼ 4–10. Halo mass precisions resulting from Cycle 1 angular clustering measurements will be ∼0.2 dex for faint (−18 ≳ $$\mathit {M}_{\mathrm{UV}}^{ }$$ ≳ −19) galaxies at z ∼ 4–10 as well as ∼0.3 dex for bright ($$\mathit {M}_{\mathrm{UV}}^{ }$$ ∼ −20) galaxies at z ∼ 4–7. Dedicated spectroscopic follow-up over ∼150 arcmin2 would improve these precisions by ∼0.1 dex by removing chance projections and low-redshift contaminants. Future JWST observations will therefore provide the first constraints on the stellar–halo mass relation in the epoch of reionization and substantially clarify how this relation evolves at z > 4. We also find that ∼1000 individual satellites will be identifiable at z ∼ 4–8 with JWST, enabling strong tests of satellite quenching evolution beyond currently available data (z ≲ 2). Finally, we find that JWST observations can measure the evolution of galaxy major merger pair fractions at z ∼ 4–8 with ∼0.1–0.2 dex uncertainties. Such measurements would help determine the relative role of mergers to the build-up of stellar mass into the epoch of reionization. 

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5. High-redshift predictions from IllustrisTNG – III. Infrared luminosity functions, obscured star formation, and dust temperature of high-redshift galaxies

   https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stab3794  

   Shen, Xuejian; Vogelsberger, Mark; Nelson, Dylan; Tacchella, Sandro; Hernquist, Lars; Springel, Volker; Marinacci, Federico; Torrey, Paul (January 2022, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society)

   ABSTRACT We post-process galaxies in the IllustrisTNG simulations with skirt radiative transfer calculations to make predictions for the rest-frame near-infrared (NIR) and far-infrared (FIR) properties of galaxies at z ≥ 4. The rest-frame K- and z-band galaxy luminosity functions from TNG are overall consistent with observations, despite $${\sim}0.5\, \mathrm{dex}$$ underprediction at z = 4 for MK ≲ −25 and Mz ≲ −24. Predictions for the JWST MIRI observed galaxy luminosity functions and number counts are given. Based on theoretical estimations, we show that the next-generation survey conducted by JWST can detect 500 (30) galaxies in F1000W in a survey area of $$500\, {\rm arcmin}^{2}$$ at z = 6 (z = 8). As opposed to the consistency in the UV, optical, and NIR, we find that TNG, combined with our dust modelling choices, significantly underpredicts the abundance of most dust-obscured and thus most luminous FIR galaxies. As a result, the obscured cosmic star formation rate density (SFRD) and the SFRD contributed by optical/NIR dark objects are underpredicted. The discrepancies discovered here could provide new constraints on the sub-grid feedback models, or the dust contents, of simulations. Meanwhile, although the TNG predicted dust temperature and its relations with IR luminosity and redshift are qualitatively consistent with observations, the peak dust temperature of z ≥ 6 galaxies are overestimated by about $$20\, {\rm K}$$. This could be related to the limited mass resolution of our simulations to fully resolve the porosity of the interstellar medium (or specifically its dust content) at these redshifts. 

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