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1. The spatial and temporal dynamics of global meat trade networks

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-73591-2  

   Chung, Min Gon; Kapsar, Kelly; Frank, Kenneth A.; Liu, Jianguo (December 2020, Scientific Reports)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Rapid increases in meat trade generate complex global networks across countries. However, there has been little research quantifying the dynamics of meat trade networks and the underlying forces that structure them. Using longitudinal network data for 134 countries from 1995 to 2015, we combined network modeling and cluster analysis to simultaneously identify the structural changes in meat trade networks and the factors that influence the networks themselves. The integrated network approach uncovers a general consolidation of global meat trade networks over time, although some global events may have weakened this consolidation both regionally and globally. In consolidated networks, the presence of trade agreements and short geographic distances between pairs of countries are associated with increases in meat trade. Countries with rapid population and income growth greatly depend on meat imports. Furthermore, countries with high food availability import large quantities of meat products to satisfy their various meat preferences. The findings from this network approach provide key insights that can be used to better understand the social and environmental consequences of increasing global meat trade. 

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2. Import Constraints

   https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20241100  

   Comin, Diego; Johnson, Robert C; Jones, Callum (May 2024, AEA Papers and Proceedings)

   Johnson, William R (Ed.)

   During the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, international shipping and logistics capacity was strained, limiting the quantity of imports. We investigate the impact of an import constraint on inflation, following an increase in domestic demand. Whether the binding import constraint raises inflation depends on how it affects trade intermediation costs. If the binding constraint raises trade costs, then import price inflation also increases. In this case, however, foreign producer price inflation falls and import quantities rise more for inputs than final goods. Both these model results appear counterfactual, which suggests that import constraints may not explain observed import price inflation. 

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3. Volatility and the Gains From Trade

   https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA14411  

   Allen, Treb; Atkin, David (January 2022, Econometrica)

   Trade liberalization changes the volatility of returns by reducing the negative correlation between local prices and productivity shocks. In this paper, we explore these second‐moment effects of trade. Using forty years of agricultural micro‐data from India, we show that falling trade costs due to expansions of the Indian highway network reduced the responsiveness of local prices to local yields but increased the responsiveness of local prices to yields elsewhere. In response, farmers shifted their production toward crops with less volatile yields, especially so for those with poor access to risk mitigating technologies such as banks. We then characterize how volatility affects farmers' crop allocation using a portfolio choice framework where returns are determined in general equilibrium by a many‐location, many‐good Ricardian trade model with flexible trade costs. Finally, we structurally estimate the model—recovering farmers' risk‐return preferences from the gradient of the mean‐variance frontier at their observed crop choices—to quantify the second‐moment effects of trade. The simultaneous expansion of both the highway and rural bank networks increased the mean and the variance of farmer real income, with the first‐moment effect dominating such that expected welfare rose 4.4%. But had rural bank access remained unchanged, welfare gains would have been only half as great, as risk mitigating technologies allowed farmers to take advantage of higher‐risk higher‐return allocations. 

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4. The environmental and socioeconomic trade-offs of importing crops to meet domestic food demand in China

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3c10  

   Huang, Guorui; Yao, Guolin; Zhao, Jing; Lisk, Matthew D.; Yu, Chaoqing; Zhang, Xin (September 2019, Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract China increasingly relies on agricultural imports, driven by its rising population and income, as well as dietary shifts. International trade offers an opportunity to relieve pressures on resource depletion and pollution, such as nitrogen (N) pollution, while it poses multiple socioeconomic challenges, such as food availability. To quantify such trade-offs considering the roles of different crop types, we developed a unique crop-specific N budget database and assessed the impacts of the crop trade on multiple sustainability concerns including N pollution caused by crop production, crop land area, independence of food supply, and trade expenditures. We quantified the ‘virtual’ N inputs and harvested areas, which are the amount of N inputs and land resources used in exporting countries for China’s crop import. In addition, we proposed the concepts of ‘alternative’ N inputs and harvested area to quantify the resources needed if imported crops were produced in China. By comparing results from ‘alternative’ and ‘virtual’ concepts, we assessed the role of trade in Chinese crops over the past 30 years (i.e. 1986–2015) in alleviating N pollution and saving cropland in China and the world. Crop imports accounted for 31% of Chinese crop N consumption in 2015, and these crop imports eased the need for an additional cropland area of 62 million ha. It also avoided an N surplus by 56 and 36 Tg (Tg = 10⁹kg) for China and the world respectively but led to $621 billion crop trade expenditures over the 30 year period. The N pollution damage avoided by crop imports in economic terms was priced at $22 ± 16 billion in 2015, which is lower than the crop trade expenditures but may be surpassed in the future with the development of the Chinese economy. Optimizing a crop trade portfolio can shift domestic production from N-intensive crop production (e.g. maize, fruits, and vegetables) to N-efficient crop production (e.g. soybeans), and consequently mitigate an N surplus by up to 12%. Improving N use efficiency for individual crops can further increase the mitigation potential of N surplus to 30%–50%, but requires technology advancement and policy incentives. 

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5. Antimicrobial Resistance and Livestock Trade for Low and Middle Income Countries: Regional Analysis of Global Coordination Policies

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.650315  

   Avraam, Charalampos; Lambrou, Anastasia S.; Jiang, Wei; Siddiqui, Sauleh (March 2021, Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems)

   null (Ed.)

   Antimicrobial resistance is a threat to global health, aggravated by the use of antimicrobials in livestock production. Mitigating the growing economic costs related to antimicrobial use in livestock production requires strong global coordination, and to that end policy makers can leverage global and national food animal trade policies, such as bans and user fees. Evaluation of such policies requires representing the interactions between competing producers in the global meat market, which is usually out of the scope of statistical models. For that, we developed a game-theoretic food system model of global livestock production and trade between 18 countries and aggregate world regions. The model comprises the largest producing and consuming countries, the explicit interconnections between countries, and the use of antimicrobials in food animal production. Our model allows us to provide policy insights beyond standard literature and assess the trade-off between trade, cost of a policy, and antimicrobials-induced productivity. We studied three scenarios: global increased user fees on antimicrobials, a global ban of meat imports from Brazil, and a decrease in China's meat consumption. We found that a user fee that increases the price of antimicrobials by 50% globally leads to a 33% reduction in global antimicrobial use. However, participation of developing and emerging countries in the coordination scheme is jeopardized, since they become less competitive for meat sales compared to developed countries. When meat imports from Brazil are banned globally, importers of Brazil's meat would turn primarily to the U.S. to supplement their demand. Lastly, meeting China's medium-term lower meat consumption target would not affect global antimicrobial use, but could increase China's antimicrobial use by 11%. We highlighted the importance of trade for the outcome of a policy and concluded that global cooperation is required to align the incentives of all countries toward tackling antimicrobial resistance. 

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