Individuals such as medical interns who work in high-stress environments often face mental health challenges including depression and anxiety. These challenges are exacerbated by the limited access to traditional mental health services due to demanding work schedules. In this context, mobile health interventions such as push notifications targeting behavioral modification to improve mental health outcomes could deliver much needed support. In this work, we study the effectiveness of these interventions on subgroups, by studying the conditional average causal effect of these interventions. We design a two step approach for estimating the conditional average causal effect of interventions and identifying specific subgroups of the population who respond positively or negatively to the interventions. The first step of our approach follows existing causal effect estimation approaches, while the second step involves a novel tree-based approach to identify subgroups who respond to the treatment. The novelty in the second step stems from a pruning approach that deploys hypothesis testing to identify subgroups experiencing a statistically significant positive or negative causal effect. Using a semi-simulated dataset, we show that our approach retrieves affected subpopulations with a higher precision than alternatives while maintaining the same recall and accuracy. Using a real dataset with randomized push interventions among the medical intern population at a large hospital, we show how our approach can be used to identify subgroups who might benefit the most from interventions.
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This content will become publicly available on December 22, 2024
Uncovering the Varied Impact of Behavioral Change Messages on Population Groups
Individuals such as medical interns who work in high-stress environments often face mental health challenges including depression and anxiety. These challenges are exacerbated by the limited access to traditional mental health services due to demanding work schedules. In this context, mobile health interventions such as push notifications targeting behavioral modification to improve mental health outcomes could deliver much needed support. In this work, we study the effectiveness of these interventions on subgroups, by studying the conditional average causal effect of these interventions. We design a two step approach for estimating the conditional average causal effect of interventions and identifying specific subgroups of the population who respond positively or negatively to the interventions. The first step of our approach follows existing causal effect estimation approaches, while the second step involves a novel tree-based approach to identify subgroups who respond to the treatment. The novelty in the second step stems from a pruning approach that deploys hypothesis testing to identify subgroups experiencing a statistically significant positive or negative causal effect. Using a semi-simulated dataset, we show that our approach retrieves affected subpopulations with a higher precision than alternatives while maintaining the same recall and accuracy. Using a real dataset with randomized push interventions among the medical intern population at a large hospital, we show how our approach can be used to identify subgroups who might benefit the most from interventions.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2153083
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10492033
- Publisher / Repository:
- PMLR
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of Machine Learning Research
- ISSN:
- 2640-3498
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Introduction Social media has created opportunities for children to gather social support online (Blackwell et al., 2016; Gonzales, 2017; Jackson, Bailey, & Foucault Welles, 2018; Khasawneh, Rogers, Bertrand, Madathil, & Gramopadhye, 2019; Ponathil, Agnisarman, Khasawneh, Narasimha, & Madathil, 2017). However, social media also has the potential to expose children and adolescents to undesirable behaviors. Research showed that social media can be used to harass, discriminate (Fritz & Gonzales, 2018), dox (Wood, Rose, & Thompson, 2018), and socially disenfranchise children (Page, Wisniewski, Knijnenburg, & Namara, 2018). Other research proposes that social media use might be correlated to the significant increase in suicide rates and depressive symptoms among children and adolescents in the past ten years (Mitchell, Wells, Priebe, & Ybarra, 2014). Evidence based research suggests that suicidal and unwanted behaviors can be promulgated through social contagion effects, which model, normalize, and reinforce self-harming behavior (Hilton, 2017). These harmful behaviors and social contagion effects may occur more frequently through repetitive exposure and modelling via social media, especially when such content goes “viral” (Hilton, 2017). One example of viral self-harming behavior that has generated significant media attention is the Blue Whale Challenge (BWC). The hearsay about this challenge is that individuals at all ages are persuaded to participate in self-harm and eventually kill themselves (Mukhra, Baryah, Krishan, & Kanchan, 2017). Research is needed specifically concerning BWC ethical concerns, the effects the game may have on teenagers, and potential governmental interventions. To address this gap in the literature, the current study uses qualitative and content analysis research techniques to illustrate the risk of self-harm and suicide contagion through the portrayal of BWC on YouTube and Twitter Posts. The purpose of this study is to analyze the portrayal of BWC on YouTube and Twitter in order to identify the themes that are presented on YouTube and Twitter posts that share and discuss BWC. In addition, we want to explore to what extent are YouTube videos compliant with safe and effective suicide messaging guidelines proposed by the Suicide Prevention Resource Center (SPRC). Method Two social media websites were used to gather the data: 60 videos and 1,112 comments from YouTube and 150 posts from Twitter. The common themes of the YouTube videos, comments on those videos, and the Twitter posts were identified using grounded, thematic content analysis on the collected data (Padgett, 2001). Three codebooks were built, one for each type of data. The data for each site were analyzed, and the common themes were identified. A deductive coding analysis was conducted on the YouTube videos based on the nine SPRC safe and effective messaging guidelines (Suicide Prevention Resource Center, 2006). The analysis explored the number of videos that violated these guidelines and which guidelines were violated the most. The inter-rater reliabilities between the coders ranged from 0.61 – 0.81 based on Cohen’s kappa. Then the coders conducted consensus coding. Results & Findings Three common themes were identified among all the posts in the three social media platforms included in this study. The first theme included posts where social media users were trying to raise awareness and warning parents about this dangerous phenomenon in order to reduce the risk of any potential participation in BWC. This was the most common theme in the videos and posts. Additionally, the posts claimed that there are more than 100 people who have played BWC worldwide and provided detailed description of what each individual did while playing the game. These videos also described the tasks and different names of the game. Only few videos provided recommendations to teenagers who might be playing or thinking of playing the game and fewer videos mentioned that the provided statistics were not confirmed by reliable sources. The second theme included posts of people that either criticized the teenagers who participated in BWC or made fun of them for a couple of reasons: they agreed with the purpose of BWC of “cleaning the society of people with mental issues,” or they misunderstood why teenagers participate in these kind of challenges, such as thinking they mainly participate due to peer pressure or to “show off”. The last theme we identified was that most of these users tend to speak in detail about someone who already participated in BWC. These videos and posts provided information about their demographics and interviews with their parents or acquaintances, who also provide more details about the participant’s personal life. The evaluation of the videos based on the SPRC safe messaging guidelines showed that 37% of the YouTube videos met fewer than 3 of the 9 safe messaging guidelines. Around 50% of them met only 4 to 6 of the guidelines, while the remaining 13% met 7 or more of the guidelines. Discussion This study is the first to systematically investigate the quality, portrayal, and reach of BWC on social media. Based on our findings from the emerging themes and the evaluation of the SPRC safe messaging guidelines we suggest that these videos could contribute to the spread of these deadly challenges (or suicide in general since the game might be a hoax) instead of raising awareness. Our suggestion is parallel with similar studies conducted on the portrait of suicide in traditional media (Fekete & Macsai, 1990; Fekete & Schmidtke, 1995). Most posts on social media romanticized people who have died by following this challenge, and younger vulnerable teens may see the victims as role models, leading them to end their lives in the same way (Fekete & Schmidtke, 1995). The videos presented statistics about the number of suicides believed to be related to this challenge in a way that made suicide seem common (Cialdini, 2003). In addition, the videos presented extensive personal information about the people who have died by suicide while playing the BWC. These videos also provided detailed descriptions of the final task, including pictures of self-harm, material that may encourage vulnerable teens to consider ending their lives and provide them with methods on how to do so (Fekete & Macsai, 1990). On the other hand, these videos both failed to emphasize prevention by highlighting effective treatments for mental health problems and failed to encourage teenagers with mental health problems to seek help and providing information on where to find it. YouTube and Twitter are capable of influencing a large number of teenagers (Khasawneh, Ponathil, Firat Ozkan, & Chalil Madathil, 2018; Pater & Mynatt, 2017). We suggest that it is urgent to monitor social media posts related to BWC and similar self-harm challenges (e.g., the Momo Challenge). Additionally, the SPRC should properly educate social media users, particularly those with more influence (e.g., celebrities) on elements that boost negative contagion effects. While the veracity of these challenges is doubted by some, posting about the challenges in unsafe manners can contribute to contagion regardless of the challlenges’ true nature.more » « less
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Background Over half of US adults have at least one chronic disease, including obesity. Although physical activity is an important component of chronic disease self-management, few reach the recommended physical activity goals. Individuals who identify as racial and ethnic minorities are disproportionally affected by chronic diseases and physical inactivity. Interventions using consumer-based wearable devices have shown promise for increasing physical activity among patients with chronic diseases; however, populations with the most to gain, such as minorities, have been poorly represented to date. Objective This study aims to assess the feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary outcomes of an 8-week text-based coaching and Fitbit program aimed at increasing the number of steps in a predominantly overweight ethnic minority population. Methods Overweight patients (BMI >25 kg/m2) were recruited from an internal medicine clinic located in an inner-city academic medical center. Fitbit devices were provided. Using 2-way SMS text messaging, health coaches (HCs) guided patients to establish weekly step goals that were specific, measurable, attainable, realistic, and time-bound. SMS text messaging and Fitbit activities were managed using a custom-designed app. Program feasibility was assessed via the recruitment rate, retention rate (the proportion of eligible participants completing the 8-week program), and patient engagement (based on the number of weekly text message goals set with the HC across the 8-week period). Acceptability was assessed using a qualitative, summative evaluation. Exploratory statistical analysis included evaluating the average weekly steps in week 1 compared with week 8 using a paired t test (2-tailed) and modeling daily steps over time using a linear mixed model. Results Of the 33 patients initially screened; 30 (91%) patients were enrolled in the study. At baseline, the average BMI was 39.3 (SD 9.3) kg/m2, with 70% (23/33) of participants presenting as obese. A total of 30% (9/30) of participants self-rated their health as either fair or poor, and 73% (22/30) of participants set up ≥6 weekly goals across the 8-week program. In total, 93% (28/30) of participants completed a qualitative summative evaluation, and 10 themes emerged from the evaluation: patient motivation, convenient SMS text messaging experience, social support, supportive accountability, technology support, self-determined goals, achievable goals, feedback from Fitbit, challenges, and habit formation. There was no significant group change in the average weekly steps for week 1 compared with week 8 (mean difference 7.26, SD 6209.3; P=.99). However, 17% (5/30) of participants showed a significant increase in their daily steps. Conclusions Overall, the results demonstrate the feasibility and acceptability of a remotely delivered walking study that included an HC; SMS text messaging; a wearable device (Fitbit); and specific, measurable, attainable, realistic, and time-bound goals within an ethnic minority patient population. Results support further development and testing in larger samples to explore efficacy.more » « less
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Abstract This project is funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) through their NSF RAPID program under the title “Modeling Corona Spread Using Big Data Analytics.” The project is a joint effort between the Department of Computer & Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at FAU and a research group from LexisNexis Risk Solutions. The novel coronavirus Covid-19 originated in China in early December 2019 and has rapidly spread to many countries around the globe, with the number of confirmed cases increasing every day. Covid-19 is officially a pandemic. It is a novel infection with serious clinical manifestations, including death, and it has reached at least 124 countries and territories. Although the ultimate course and impact of Covid-19 are uncertain, it is not merely possible but likely that the disease will produce enough severe illness to overwhelm the worldwide health care infrastructure. Emerging viral pandemics can place extraordinary and sustained demands on public health and health systems and on providers of essential community services. Modeling the Covid-19 pandemic spread is challenging. But there are data that can be used to project resource demands. Estimates of the reproductive number (R) of SARS-CoV-2 show that at the beginning of the epidemic, each infected person spreads the virus to at least two others, on average (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020, Livingston and Bucher in JAMA 323(14):1335, 2020). A conservatively low estimate is that 5 % of the population could become infected within 3 months. Preliminary data from China and Italy regarding the distribution of case severity and fatality vary widely (Wu and McGoogan in JAMA 323(13):1239–42, 2020). A recent large-scale analysis from China suggests that 80 % of those infected either are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms; a finding that implies that demand for advanced medical services might apply to only 20 % of the total infected. Of patients infected with Covid-19, about 15 % have severe illness and 5 % have critical illness (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020). Overall, mortality ranges from 0.25 % to as high as 3.0 % (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020, Wilson et al. in Emerg Infect Dis 26(6):1339, 2020). Case fatality rates are much higher for vulnerable populations, such as persons over the age of 80 years (> 14 %) and those with coexisting conditions (10 % for those with cardiovascular disease and 7 % for those with diabetes) (Emanuel et al. in N Engl J Med. 2020). Overall, Covid-19 is substantially deadlier than seasonal influenza, which has a mortality of roughly 0.1 %. Public health efforts depend heavily on predicting how diseases such as those caused by Covid-19 spread across the globe. During the early days of a new outbreak, when reliable data are still scarce, researchers turn to mathematical models that can predict where people who could be infected are going and how likely they are to bring the disease with them. These computational methods use known statistical equations that calculate the probability of individuals transmitting the illness. Modern computational power allows these models to quickly incorporate multiple inputs, such as a given disease’s ability to pass from person to person and the movement patterns of potentially infected people traveling by air and land. This process sometimes involves making assumptions about unknown factors, such as an individual’s exact travel pattern. By plugging in different possible versions of each input, however, researchers can update the models as new information becomes available and compare their results to observed patterns for the illness. In this paper we describe the development a model of Corona spread by using innovative big data analytics techniques and tools. We leveraged our experience from research in modeling Ebola spread (Shaw et al. Modeling Ebola Spread and Using HPCC/KEL System. In: Big Data Technologies and Applications 2016 (pp. 347-385). Springer, Cham) to successfully model Corona spread, we will obtain new results, and help in reducing the number of Corona patients. We closely collaborated with LexisNexis, which is a leading US data analytics company and a member of our NSF I/UCRC for Advanced Knowledge Enablement. The lack of a comprehensive view and informative analysis of the status of the pandemic can also cause panic and instability within society. Our work proposes the HPCC Systems Covid-19 tracker, which provides a multi-level view of the pandemic with the informative virus spreading indicators in a timely manner. The system embeds a classical epidemiological model known as SIR and spreading indicators based on causal model. The data solution of the tracker is built on top of the Big Data processing platform HPCC Systems, from ingesting and tracking of various data sources to fast delivery of the data to the public. The HPCC Systems Covid-19 tracker presents the Covid-19 data on a daily, weekly, and cumulative basis up to global-level and down to the county-level. It also provides statistical analysis for each level such as new cases per 100,000 population. The primary analysis such as Contagion Risk and Infection State is based on causal model with a seven-day sliding window. Our work has been released as a publicly available website to the world and attracted a great volume of traffic. The project is open-sourced and available on GitHub. The system was developed on the LexisNexis HPCC Systems, which is briefly described in the paper.more » « less
