An official website of the United States government
Societal Impact StatementForest ecosystems absorb and store about 25% of global carbon dioxide emissions annually and are increasingly shaped by human land use and management. Climate change interacts with land use and forest dynamics to influence observed carbon stocks and the strength of the land carbon sink. We show that climate change effects on modeled forest land carbon stocks are strongest in tropical wildlands that have limited human influence. Global forest carbon stocks and carbon sink strength may decline as climate change and anthropogenic influences intensify, with wildland tropical forests, especially in Amazonia, likely being especially vulnerable. SummaryHuman effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling.Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900‐present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO2and temperature change for different anthromes among regions.Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO2increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO2and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests.The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land‐use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.
more »
« less
Human population density and blue carbon stocks in mangroves soils
Abstract Mangrove soils provide many important ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, yet they are vulnerable to the negative impacts brought on by anthropogenic activities. Research in recent decades has shown a progressive loss of blue carbon in mangrove forests as they are converted to aquaculture, agriculture, and urban development. We seek to study the relationship between human population density and soil carbon stocks in urban mangrove forests to quantify their role in the global carbon budget. To this end, we conducted a global analysis, collecting mangrove soil carbon data from previous studies and calculating population density for each study location utilizing a recent database from the European Commission. Results indicate population density has a negative association with mangrove soil carbon stocks. When human population density reaches 300 people km−2, which is defined as ‘urban domains’ in the European Commission database, mangrove soil carbon is estimated to be lower than isolated mangrove forests by 37%. Nonetheless, after accounting for climatic factors in the model, we see the negative relationship between population density and soil carbon is reduced and is even non-significant in mixed effects models. This suggests population density is not a good measure for the direct effects of humans on mangrove ecosystems and further implies mangrove ecosystems in close proximity to very high population density can still possess valuable carbon stocks. Our work provides a better understanding of how soil carbon stocks in existing mangrove forests correlate with different levels of population density, underscores the importance of protecting existing mangroves and especially those in areas with high human population density, and calls for further studies on the association between human activities and mangrove forest carbon stocks.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2120677
- PAR ID:
- 10492084
- Publisher / Repository:
- IOP Publishing
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Volume:
- 19
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 1748-9326
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: Article No. 034017
- Size(s):
- Article No. 034017
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Mangroves cover less than 0.1% of Earth’s surface, store large amounts of carbon per unit area, but are threatened by global environmental change. The capacity of mangroves productivity could be characterized by their canopy greenness, but this property has not been systematically tested across gradients of mangrove forests and national scales. Here, we analyzed time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), mean air temperature and total precipitation between 2001 and 2015 (14 years) to quantify greenness and climate variability trends for mangroves not directly influenced by land use/land cover change across Mexico. Between 2001 and 2015 persistent mangrove forests covered 432 800 ha, representing 57% of the total current mangrove area for Mexico. We found a temporal greenness increase between 0.003[0.001–0.004]and 0.004[0.002–0.005]yr−1(NDVI values ± 95%CI) for mangroves located over the Gulf of California and the Pacific Coast, with many mangrove areas dominated byAvicennia germinans.Mangroves developed along the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea did not show significant greenness trends, but site-specific areas showed significant negative greenness trends. Mangroves with surface water input have above ground carbon stocks (AGC) between 37.7 and 221.9 Mg C ha−1and soil organic carbon density at 30 cm depth (SOCD) between 92.4 and 127.3 Mg C ha−1. Mangroves with groundwater water input have AGC of 12.7 Mg C ha−1and SOCD of 219 Mg C ha−1. Greenness and climate variability trends could not explain the spatial variability in carbon stocks for most mangrove forests across Mexico. Site-specific characteristics, including mangrove species dominance could have a major influence on greenness trends. Our findings provide a baseline for national-level monitoring programs, carbon accounting models, and insights for greenness trends that could be tested around the world.more » « less
-
Abstract Land use change (LUC) alters the global carbon (C) stock, but our estimation of the alteration remains uncertain and is a major impediment to predicting the global C cycle. The uncertainty is partly due to the limited number and geographical bias of observations, and limited exploration of its predictors. Here we generated a comprehensive global database of 5,980 observations from 790 articles. The number of sites evaluated is at least seven times larger than in previous meta‐analyses. Our constrained estimates of different LUC's effects on soil organic C (SOC) and their variations across global climates reveal underestimation/overestimation in previous estimates. Converting forests and grasslands to croplands reduced SOC by 24.5% ± 1.53% (−11.03 ± 1.06 Mg ha−1) and 22.7% ± 1.22% (−8.09 ± 0.67 Mg ha−1), while 28.0% ± 1.56% (4.46 ± 0.42 Mg ha−1) and 33.5% ± 1.68% (5.8 ± 0.38 Mg ha−1) increases, respectively, were obtained in the reverse processes. Converting forests to grasslands decreased SOC by 2.1% ± 1.22% (−1.13 ± 0.44 Mg ha−1), while the reverse process increased SOC by 18.6% ± 1.73% (3.31 ± 0.51 Mg ha−1). Modeled relative importance of 10 drivers of LUC's impact on SOC revealed that higher initial SOC (iSOC) does not solely determine SOC loss in SOC‐negative LUC scenarios as previously proposed. Across four decades, reconverting croplands to forests and grasslands recovered only 49.5% (6.1 ± 0.51 Mg ha−1) and 75.3% (7.0 ± 0.38 Mg ha−1) of the iSOC, respectively, indicating the need for protecting C‐rich ecosystems. Our global data set advances information on LUC's effect on SOC and can be valuable to constrain Earth system models to reliably estimate global SOC stocks and plan climate change mitigation strategies.more » « less
-
ABSTRACT Mangrove forests are typically considered resilient to natural disturbances, likely caused by the evolutionary adaptation of species‐specific traits. These ecosystems play a vital role in the global carbon cycle and are responsible for an outsized contribution to carbon burial and enhanced sedimentation rates. Using eddy covariance data from two coastal mangrove forests in the Florida Coastal Everglades, we evaluated the impact hurricanes have on mangrove forest structure and function by measuring recovery to pre‐disturbance conditions following Hurricane Wilma in 2005 and Hurricane Irma in 2017. We determined the “recovery debt,” the deficit in ecosystem structure and function following a disturbance, using the leaf area index (LAI) and the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide (CO2). Calculated as the cumulative deviation from pre‐disturbance conditions, the recovery debt incorporated the recapture of all the carbon lost due to the disturbance. In Everglades mangrove forests, LAI returned to pre‐disturbance levels within a year, and ecosystem respiration and maximum photosynthetic rates took much longer, resulting in an initial recovery debt of 178 g C m−2at the tall forest with limited impacts at the scrub forest. At the landscape scale, the initial recovery debt was 0.40 Mt C, and in most coastal mangrove forests, all lost carbon was recovered within just 4 years. While high‐intensity storms could have prolonged impacts on the structure of subtropical forests, fast canopy recovery suggests these ecosystems will remain strong carbon sinks.more » « less
-
Abstract Mangroves are considered one of the most productive ecosystems in the world with significant contributions as carbon sinks in the biosphere. Yet few attempts have been made to assess global patterns in mangrove net primary productivity, except for a few assumptions relating litterfall rates to variation in latitude. We combined geophysical and climatic variables to predict mangrove litterfall rates at continental scale. On a per‐area basis, carbon flux in litterfall in the neotropics is estimated at 5 MgC·ha−1·yr−1, between 20% and 50% higher than previous estimates. Annual carbon fixed in mangrove litterfall in the neotropics is estimated at 11.5 TgC, which suggests that current global litterfall estimates extrapolated from mean reference values may have been underestimated by at least 5%. About 5.8 TgC of this total carbon fixed in the neotropics is exported to estuaries and coastal oceans, which is nearly 30% of global carbon export by tides. We provide the first attempt to quantify and map the spatial variability of carbon fixed in litterfall in mangrove forests at continental scale in response to geophysical and climatic environmental drivers. Our results strengthen the global carbon budget for coastal wetlands, providing blue carbon scientists and coastal policy makers with a more accurate representation of the potential of mangroves to offset carbon dioxide emissions.more » « less
