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Abstract The global forest carbon stocks represent the amount of carbon stored in woody vegetation and are important for quantifying the ability of the global forests to sequester atmospheric CO2and to provide ecosystem services (e.g., timber) under climate change. The forest ecosystem carbon pool estimates are highly variable and poorly quantified in areas lacking forest inventory estimates. Here, we compare and analyze aboveground biomass (AGB) estimates from five satellite‐based global data sets and nine dynamic global vegetation models (DVGMs). We find that across the data sets, mean AGB exhibits the largest variability around the tropical area. In addition, AGB shows a similar latitudinal trend but large variability among the data sets. Satellite‐based AGB estimates are lower than those simulated by DVGMs. The divergence among the satellite‐based AGB estimates can be driven by the methodology, input satellite products, and the forested areas used to estimate AGB. The modeled NPP, autotrophic respiration, and carbon allocation mostly drive the variability of AGB simulated by DGVMs. The future availability of a high‐quality global forest area map is anticipated to improve AGB estimate accuracy and to reduce the discrepancies among different satellite‐ and model‐based AGB estimates. We suggest the carbon‐modeling community reexamine the methodology used to estimate AGB and forested areas for a more robust global forest carbon stock estimation.
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This content will become publicly available on July 1, 2026
Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change
Societal Impact StatementForest ecosystems absorb and store about 25% of global carbon dioxide emissions annually and are increasingly shaped by human land use and management. Climate change interacts with land use and forest dynamics to influence observed carbon stocks and the strength of the land carbon sink. We show that climate change effects on modeled forest land carbon stocks are strongest in tropical wildlands that have limited human influence. Global forest carbon stocks and carbon sink strength may decline as climate change and anthropogenic influences intensify, with wildland tropical forests, especially in Amazonia, likely being especially vulnerable. SummaryHuman effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling.Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900‐present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO2and temperature change for different anthromes among regions.Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO2increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO2and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests.The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land‐use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2306198
- PAR ID:
- 10613831
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- PLANTS, PEOPLE, PLANET
- Volume:
- 7
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 2572-2611
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1027 to 1042
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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