Title: Robust Polar Amplification in Ice-Free Climates Relies on Ocean Heat Transport and Cloud Radiative Effects
Abstract
A fundamental divide exists between previous studies that conclude that polar amplification does not occur without sea ice and studies that find that polar amplification is an inherent feature of the atmosphere independent of sea ice. We hypothesize that a representation of climatological ocean heat transport is key for simulating polar amplification in ice-free climates. To investigate this, we run a suite of targeted experiments in the slab ocean aquaplanet configuration of CESM2-CAM6 with different profiles of prescribed ocean heat transport, which are invariant under CO2quadrupling. In simulations without climatological ocean heat transport, polar amplification does not occur. In contrast, in simulations with climatological ocean heat transport, robust polar amplification occurs in all seasons. What is causing this dependence of polar amplification on ocean heat transport? Energy-balance model theory is incapable of explaining our results and in fact would predict that introducing ocean heat transport leads to less polar amplification. We instead demonstrate that shortwave cloud radiative feedbacks can explain the divergent polar climate responses simulated by CESM2-CAM6. Targeted cloud locking experiments in the zero ocean heat transport simulations are able to reproduce the polar amplification of the climatological ocean heat transport simulations, solely by prescribing high-latitude cloud radiative feedbacks. We conclude that polar amplification in ice-free climates is underpinned by ocean–atmosphere coupling, through a less negative high latitude shortwave cloud radiative feedback that facilitates enhanced polar warming. In addition to reconciling previous disparities, these results have important implications for interpreting past equable climates and climate projections under high-emissions scenarios.
Significance Statement
Polar amplification is a robust feature of climate change in the modern-day climate. However, previous climate modeling studies fundamentally do not agree on whether polar amplification occurs in ice-free climates. In this study, we find in a state-of-the-art climate model that, if ocean heat transport is neglected, the response to an increase in CO2is not polar amplified, whereas robust polar amplification occurs if ocean heat transport is included. Using targeted model experiments, we diagnose cloud radiative effects as the driver of this divergent behavior. We conclude that polar amplification is a robust feature of the atmosphere–ocean system. Our results have important implications for interpreting past warm climates and future projections under high-emissions scenarios.
Needham, Michael R.; Randall, David A.(
, Journal of Climate)
Abstract
In the tropics, the absorbed solar radiation is larger than the outgoing longwave radiation, while the opposite is true at high latitudes. This basic fact implies a poleward energy transport (PET) in both hemispheres, which is accomplished by the atmosphere and oceans. The magnitude of PET is determined by the top of atmosphere gradient in the net radiation flux, and small changes to this quantity must change the total PET in the absence of changes in heat uptake. We analyze a large ensemble of 50 historic climate simulations from the CESM LENS2 project and find a significant PET anomaly in the latter half of the twentieth century. The temporal evolution of this anomaly—with a rapid increase after 1950, a peak near 1975, and a rapid decrease in the 1990s—mirrors the historic trend of sulfur dioxide (SO2, a significant aerosol predecessor) emissions from Europe and North America. This anomaly also appears in an analysis of the PET calculated from ERA5 reanalyses and from the CESM2 Single Forcing Large Ensemble. Consistent with previous studies, we find that historic SO2emissions from Europe and North America brightened clouds, which reflected additional solar radiation back to space in the midlatitudes: this shortwave anomaly increased the meridional gradient in the net TOA radiation flux and induced an anomalous northward energy transport. Finally, our results suggest that cryosphere processes become an additional important factor in setting the PET anomaly during the first years of the twenty-first century by contributing to the difference in absorbed solar radiation between hemispheres alongside cloud radiative effects.
significance statement
In this study, we analyze a large group of climate model simulations from 1850 to 2014 and find that this historical pollution changed the way that heat was transported from the tropics to Earth’s poles. We also find this change in heat transport when we analyzed an atmospheric reanalysis, which is a historical dataset that combines many meteorological observations into a best estimate of the past climate state. This extra reflection of sunlight from polluted clouds cooled the Northern Hemisphere, and we hypothesize that this cooling caused more heat transport out of the tropics. Last, we find that similar pollution emitted from China and India in more recent decades has not led to a change in Earth’s heat transport because of counteracting changes in snow and ice in the Northern Hemisphere.
Zhu, Jiang; Poulsen, Christopher J.(
, Climate of the Past)
null
(Ed.)
Abstract. Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) has been directly estimated using reconstructions of past climates that are different than today's. A challenge to this approach is that temperature proxies integrate over the timescales of the fast feedback processes (e.g., changes in water vapor, snow, and clouds) that are captured in ECS as well as the slower feedback processes (e.g., changes in ice sheets and ocean circulation) that are not. A way around this issue is to treat the slow feedbacks as climate forcings and independently account for their impact on global temperature. Here we conduct a suite of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2) to quantify the forcingand efficacy of land ice sheets (LISs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) in order to estimate ECS. Our forcing and efficacy quantification adopts the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and adjustment framework and provides a complete accounting for the radiative, topographic, and dynamical impacts of LIS on surface temperatures. ERF and efficacy of LGM LIS are −3.2 W m−2 and 1.1, respectively. The larger-than-unity efficacy is caused by the temperature changes over land and the Northern Hemisphere subtropical oceans which are relatively larger than those in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The subtropical sea-surface temperature (SST) response is linked to LIS-induced wind changes and feedbacks in ocean–atmosphere coupling and clouds. ERF and efficacy of LGM GHG are −2.8 W m−2 and 0.9, respectively. The lower efficacy is primarily attributed to a smaller cloud feedback at colder temperatures. Our simulations further demonstrate that the direct ECS calculation using the forcing, efficacy, and temperature response in CESM1.2 overestimates the true value in the model by approximately 25 % due to the neglect of slow ocean dynamical feedback. This is supported by the greater cooling (6.8 ∘C) in a fully coupled LGM simulation than that (5.3 ∘C) in a slab ocean model simulation with ocean dynamics disabled. The majority (67 %) of the ocean dynamical feedback is attributed to dynamical changes in the Southern Ocean, where interactions between upper-ocean stratification, heat transport, and sea-ice cover are found to amplify the LGM cooling. Our study demonstrates the value of climate models in the quantification of climate forcings and the ocean dynamical feedback, which is necessary for an accurate direct ECS estimation.
McKay, R.M.; De Santis, L.; Kulhanek, D.K.(
, Proceedings of the International Ocean Discovery Program)
null
(Ed.)
The marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is currently locally retreating because of shifting wind-driven oceanic currents that transport warm waters toward the ice margin, resulting in ice shelf thinning and accelerated mass loss. Previous results from geologic drilling on Antarctica’s continental margins show significant variability in ice sheet extent during the late Neogene and Quaternary. Climate and ice sheet models indicate a fundamental role for oceanic heat in controlling ice sheet variability over at least the past 20 My. Although evidence for past ice sheet variability is available from ice-proximal marine settings, sedimentary sequences from the continental shelf and rise are required to evaluate the extent of past ice sheet variability and the associated forcings and feedbacks. International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 374 drilled a latitudinal and depth transect of five sites from the outer continental shelf to rise in the central Ross Sea to resolve Neogene and Quaternary relationships between climatic and oceanic change and WAIS evolution. The Ross Sea was targeted because numerical ice sheet models indicate that this sector of Antarctica responds sensitively to changes in ocean heat flux. Expedition 374 was designed for optimal data-model integration to enable an improved understanding of Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) mass balance during warmer-than-present climates (e.g., the Pleistocene “super interglacials,” the mid-Pliocene, and the Miocene Climatic Optimum). The principal goals of Expedition 374 were to: 1. Evaluate the contribution of West Antarctica to far-field ice volume and sea level estimates; 2. Reconstruct ice-proximal oceanic and atmospheric temperatures to quantify past polar amplification; 3. Assess the role of oceanic forcing (e.g., temperature and sea level) on AIS variability; 4. Identify the sensitivity of the AIS to Earth’s orbital configuration under a variety of climate boundary conditions; and 5. Reconstruct Ross Sea paleobathymetry to examine relationships between seafloor geometry, ice sheet variability, and global climate. To achieve these objectives, postcruise studies will: 1. Use data and models to reconcile intervals of maximum Neogene and Quaternary ice advance and retreat with far-field records of eustatic sea level; 2. Reconstruct past changes in oceanic and atmospheric temperatures using a multiproxy approach; 3. Reconstruct Neogene and Quaternary sea ice margin fluctuations and correlate these records to existing inner continental shelf records; 4. Examine relationships among WAIS variability, Earth’s orbital configuration, oceanic temperature and circulation, and atmospheric pCO2; and 5. Constrain the timing of Ross Sea continental shelf overdeepening and assess its impact on Neogene and Quaternary ice dynamics. Expedition 374 departed from Lyttelton, New Zealand, in January 2018 and returned in March 2018. We recovered 1292.70 m of high-quality core from five sites spanning the early Miocene to late Quaternary. Three sites were cored on the continental shelf (Sites U1521, U1522, and U1523). At Site U1521, we cored a 650 m thick sequence of interbedded diamictite and diatom-rich mudstone penetrating seismic Ross Sea Unconformity 4 (RSU4). The depositional reconstructions of past glacial and open-marine conditions at this site will provide unprecedented insight into environmental change on the Antarctic continental shelf during the late early and middle Miocene. At Site U1522, we cored a discontinuous late Miocene to Pleistocene sequence of glacial and glaciomarine strata from the outer shelf with the primary objective of penetrating and dating RSU3, which is interpreted to reflect the first continental shelf–wide expansion of East and West Antarctic ice streams. Site U1523, located on the outer continental shelf, targeted a sediment drift beneath the westward-flowing Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) to test the hypothesis that changes in ASC vigor regulate ocean heat flux onto the continental shelf and thus ice sheet mass balance. We also cored two sites on the continental rise and slope. At Site U1524, we recovered a Plio–Pleistocene sedimentary sequence from the levee of the Hillary Canyon, one of the largest conduits of Antarctic Bottom Water from the continental shelf to the abyssal ocean. Site U1524 was designed to penetrate into middle Miocene and older strata, but coring was initially interrupted by drifting sea ice that forced us to abandon coring in Hole U1524A at 399.5 m drilling depth below seafloor (DSF). We moved to a nearby alternate site on the continental slope (Site U1525) to core a single hole designed to complement the record at Site U1524. We returned to Site U1524 after the sea ice cleared and cored Hole U1524C with the rotary core barrel system with the intention of reaching the target depth of 1000 m DSF. However, we were forced to terminate Hole U1524C at 441.9 m DSF because of a mechanical failure with the vessel that resulted in termination of all drilling operations and forced us to return to Lyttelton 16 days earlier than scheduled. The loss of 39% of our operational days significantly impacted our ability to achieve all Expedition 374 objectives. In particular, we were not able to recover continuous middle Miocene sequences from the continental rise designed to complement the discontinuous record from continental shelf Site U1521. The mechanical failure also meant we could not recover cores from proposed Site RSCR-19A, which was targeted to obtain a high-fidelity, continuous record of upper Neogene and Quaternary pelagic/hemipelagic sedimentation. Despite our failure to recover a continental shelf-to-rise Miocene transect, records from Sites U1522, U1524, and U1525 and legacy cores from the Antarctic Geological Drilling Project (ANDRILL) can be integrated to develop a shelf-to-rise Plio–Pleistocene transect.
McKay, R.M.; De Santis, L.; Kulhanek, D.K.(
, Preliminary report)
null
(Ed.)
The marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is currently retreating due to shifting wind-driven oceanic currents that transport warm waters toward the ice margin, resulting in ice shelf thinning and accelerated mass loss of the WAIS. Previous results from geologic drilling on Antarctica’s continental margins show significant variability in marine-based ice sheet extent during the late Neogene and Quaternary. Numerical models indicate a fundamental role for oceanic heat in controlling this variability over at least the past 20 My. Although evidence for past ice sheet variability has been collected in marginal settings, sedimentologic sequences from the outer continental shelf are required to evaluate the extent of past ice sheet variability and the associated oceanic forcings and feedbacks. International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 374 drilled a latitudinal and depth transect of five drill sites from the outer continental shelf to rise in the eastern Ross Sea to resolve the relationship between climatic and oceanic change and WAIS evolution through the Neogene and Quaternary. This location was selected because numerical ice sheet models indicate that this sector of Antarctica is highly sensitive to changes in ocean heat flux. The expedition was designed for optimal data-model integration and will enable an improved understanding of the sensitivity of Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) mass balance during warmer-than-present climates (e.g., the Pleistocene “super interglacials,” the mid-Pliocene, and the late early to middle Miocene). The principal goals of Expedition 374 were to
• Evaluate the contribution of West Antarctica to far-field ice volume and sea level estimates;
• Reconstruct ice-proximal atmospheric and oceanic temperatures to identify past polar amplification and assess its forcings and feedbacks;
• Assess the role of oceanic forcing (e.g., sea level and temperature) on AIS stability/instability;
• Identify the sensitivity of the AIS to Earth’s orbital configuration under a variety of climate boundary conditions; and
• Reconstruct eastern Ross Sea paleobathymetry to examine relationships between seafloor geometry, ice sheet stability/instability, and global climate.
To achieve these objectives, we will
• Use data and models to reconcile intervals of maximum Neogene and Quaternary Antarctic ice advance with far-field records of eustatic sea level change;
• Reconstruct past changes in oceanic and atmospheric temperatures using a multiproxy approach;
• Reconstruct Neogene and Quaternary sea ice margin fluctuations in datable marine continental slope and rise records and correlate these records to existing inner continental shelf records;
• Examine relationships among WAIS stability/instability, Earth’s orbital configuration, oceanic temperature and circulation, and atmospheric pCO2; and
• Constrain the timing of Ross Sea continental shelf overdeepening and assess its impact on Neogene and Quaternary ice dynamics.
Expedition 374 was carried out from January to March 2018, departing from Lyttelton, New Zealand. We recovered 1292.70 m of high-quality cores from five sites spanning the early Miocene to late Quaternary. Three sites were cored on the continental shelf (Sites U1521, U1522, and U1523). At Site U1521, we cored a 650 m thick sequence of interbedded diamictite, mudstone, and diatomite, penetrating the Ross Sea seismic Unconformity RSU4. The depositional reconstructions of past glacial and open-marine conditions at this site will provide unprecedented insight into environmental change on the Antarctic continental shelf during the early and middle Miocene. At Site U1522, we cored a discontinuous upper Miocene to Pleistocene sequence of glacial and glaciomarine strata from the outer shelf, with the primary objective to penetrate and date seismic Unconformity RSU3, which is interpreted to represent the first major continental shelf–wide expansion and coalescing of marine-based ice streams from both East and West Antarctica. At Site U1523, we cored a sediment drift located beneath the westerly flowing Antarctic Slope Current (ASC). Cores from this site will provide a record of the changing vigor of the ASC through time. Such a reconstruction will enable testing of the hypothesis that changes in the vigor of the ASC represent a key control on regulating heat flux onto the continental shelf, resulting in the ASC playing a fundamental role in ice sheet mass balance.
We also cored two sites on the continental slope and rise. At Site U1524, we cored a Plio–Pleistocene sedimentary sequence on the continental rise on the levee of the Hillary Canyon, which is one of the largest conduits of Antarctic Bottom Water delivery from the Antarctic continental shelf into the abyssal ocean. Drilling at Site U1524 was intended to penetrate into middle Miocene and older strata but was initially interrupted by drifting sea ice that forced us to abandon coring in Hole U1524A at 399.5 m drilling depth below seafloor (DSF). We moved to a nearby alternate site on the continental slope (U1525) to core a single hole with a record complementary to the upper part of the section recovered at Site U1524. We returned to Site U1524 3 days later, after the sea ice cleared. We then cored Hole U1524C with the rotary core barrel with the intention of reaching the target depth of 1000 m DSF. However, we were forced to terminate Hole U1524C at 441.9 m DSF due to a mechanical failure with the vessel that resulted in termination of all drilling operations and a return to Lyttelton 16 days earlier than scheduled. The loss of 39% of our operational days significantly impacted our ability to achieve all Expedition 374 objectives as originally planned. In particular, we were not able to obtain the deeper time record of the middle Miocene on the continental rise or abyssal sequences that would have provided a continuous and contemporaneous archive to the high-quality (but discontinuous) record from Site U1521 on the continental shelf. The mechanical failure also meant we could not recover sediment cores from proposed Site RSCR-19A, which was targeted to obtain a high-fidelity, continuous record of upper Neogene and Quaternary pelagic/hemipelagic sedimentation. Despite our failure to recover a shelf-to-rise transect for the Miocene, a continental shelf-to-rise transect for the Pliocene to Pleistocene interval is possible through comparison of the high-quality records from Site U1522 with those from Site U1525 and legacy cores from the Antarctic Geological Drilling Project (ANDRILL).
Russotto, Rick D.; Biasutti, Michela(
, Geophysical Research Letters)
Abstract
In the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP) ensemble of aquaplanet climate model experiments, CO2‐induced warming is amplified in the poles in 10 out of 12 models, despite the lack of sea ice. We attribute causes of this amplification by perturbing individual radiative forcing and feedback components in a moist energy balance model. We find a strikingly linear pattern of tropical versus polar warming contributions across models and processes, implying that polar amplification is an inherent consequence of diffusion of moist static energy by the atmosphere. The largest contributor to polar amplification is the instantaneous CO2forcing, followed by the water vapor feedback and, for some models, cloud feedbacks. Extratropical feedbacks affect polar amplification more strongly, but even feedbacks confined to the tropics can cause polar amplification. Our results contradict studies inferring warming contributions directly from the meridional gradient of radiative perturbations, highlighting the importance of interactions between feedbacks and moisture transport for polar amplification.
England, Mark R., and Feldl, Nicole. Robust Polar Amplification in Ice-Free Climates Relies on Ocean Heat Transport and Cloud Radiative Effects. Journal of Climate 37.7 Web. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0151.1.
England, Mark R., & Feldl, Nicole. Robust Polar Amplification in Ice-Free Climates Relies on Ocean Heat Transport and Cloud Radiative Effects. Journal of Climate, 37 (7). https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0151.1
England, Mark R., and Feldl, Nicole.
"Robust Polar Amplification in Ice-Free Climates Relies on Ocean Heat Transport and Cloud Radiative Effects". Journal of Climate 37 (7). Country unknown/Code not available: American Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0151.1.https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10494160.
@article{osti_10494160,
place = {Country unknown/Code not available},
title = {Robust Polar Amplification in Ice-Free Climates Relies on Ocean Heat Transport and Cloud Radiative Effects},
url = {https://par.nsf.gov/biblio/10494160},
DOI = {10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0151.1},
abstractNote = {Abstract A fundamental divide exists between previous studies that conclude that polar amplification does not occur without sea ice and studies that find that polar amplification is an inherent feature of the atmosphere independent of sea ice. We hypothesize that a representation of climatological ocean heat transport is key for simulating polar amplification in ice-free climates. To investigate this, we run a suite of targeted experiments in the slab ocean aquaplanet configuration of CESM2-CAM6 with different profiles of prescribed ocean heat transport, which are invariant under CO2quadrupling. In simulations without climatological ocean heat transport, polar amplification does not occur. In contrast, in simulations with climatological ocean heat transport, robust polar amplification occurs in all seasons. What is causing this dependence of polar amplification on ocean heat transport? Energy-balance model theory is incapable of explaining our results and in fact would predict that introducing ocean heat transport leads to less polar amplification. We instead demonstrate that shortwave cloud radiative feedbacks can explain the divergent polar climate responses simulated by CESM2-CAM6. Targeted cloud locking experiments in the zero ocean heat transport simulations are able to reproduce the polar amplification of the climatological ocean heat transport simulations, solely by prescribing high-latitude cloud radiative feedbacks. We conclude that polar amplification in ice-free climates is underpinned by ocean–atmosphere coupling, through a less negative high latitude shortwave cloud radiative feedback that facilitates enhanced polar warming. In addition to reconciling previous disparities, these results have important implications for interpreting past equable climates and climate projections under high-emissions scenarios. Significance StatementPolar amplification is a robust feature of climate change in the modern-day climate. However, previous climate modeling studies fundamentally do not agree on whether polar amplification occurs in ice-free climates. In this study, we find in a state-of-the-art climate model that, if ocean heat transport is neglected, the response to an increase in CO2is not polar amplified, whereas robust polar amplification occurs if ocean heat transport is included. Using targeted model experiments, we diagnose cloud radiative effects as the driver of this divergent behavior. We conclude that polar amplification is a robust feature of the atmosphere–ocean system. Our results have important implications for interpreting past warm climates and future projections under high-emissions scenarios.},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
volume = {37},
number = {7},
publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
author = {England, Mark R. and Feldl, Nicole},
}
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