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Title: Carceral Amplification of COVID-19: Impacts for Community, Corrections Officer, and Incarcerated Population Risks
COVID-19 is challenging many societal institutions, including our criminal justice systems. Some have proposed or enacted (e.g., the State of New Jersey) reductions in the jail and/or prison populations. We present a mathematical model to explore the epidemiologic impact of such interventions in jails and contrast them with the consequences of maintaining unaltered practices. We consider infection risk and likely in-custody deaths, and estimate how within-jail dynamics lead to spill-over risks, not only affecting incarcerated people but increasing exposure, infection, and death rates for both corrections officers and the broader community beyond the justice system. We show that, given a typical jail-community dynamic, operating in a business-as-usual way results in substantial, rapid, and ongoing loss of life. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that large-scale reductions in arrest and speeding of releases are likely to save the lives of incarcerated people, jail staff, and the wider community.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2110109
PAR ID:
10497120
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Wolters Kluwer
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Epidemiology
Volume:
33
Issue:
4
ISSN:
1044-3983
Page Range / eLocation ID:
480 to 492
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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