An official website of the United States government
Abstract Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas with a warming potential 84 times that of carbon dioxide (CO2) over a 20‐year period. Atmospheric CH4concentrations have been rising since the nineteenth century but the cause of large increases post‐2007 is disputed. Tropical wetlands are thought to account for ∼20% of global CH4emissions, but African tropical wetlands are understudied and their contribution is uncertain. In this work, we use the first airborne measurements of CH4sampled over three wetland areas in Zambia to derive emission fluxes. Three independent approaches to flux quantification from airborne measurements were used: Airborne mass balance, airborne eddy‐covariance, and an atmospheric inversion. Measured emissions (ranging from 5 to 28 mg m−2 hr−1) were found to be an order of magnitude greater than those simulated by land surface models (ranging from 0.6 to 3.9 mg m−2hr−1), suggesting much greater emissions from tropical wetlands than currently accounted for. The prevalence of such underestimated CH4sources may necessitate additional reductions in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to keep global warming below a threshold of 2°C above preindustrial levels.
more »
« less
California dominates U.S. emissions of the pesticide and potent greenhouse gas sulfuryl fluoride
Abstract Sulfuryl fluoride (SO2F2) is a synthetic pesticide and a potent greenhouse gas that is accumulating in the global atmosphere. Rising emissions are a concern since SO2F2has a relatively long atmospheric lifetime and a high global warming potential. The U.S. is thought to contribute substantially to global SO2F2emissions, but there is a paucity of information on how emissions of SO2F2are distributed across the U.S., and there is currently no inventory of SO2F2emissions for the U.S. or individual states. Here we provide an atmospheric measurement-based estimate of U.S. SO2F2emissions using high-precision SO2F2measurements from the NOAA Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network (GGGRN) and a geostatistical inverse model. We find that California has the largest SO2F2emissions among all U.S. states, with the highest emissions from southern coastal California (Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego counties). Outside of California, only very small and infrequent SO2F2emissions are detected by our analysis of GGGRN data. We find that California emits 60-85% of U.S. SO2F2emissions, at a rate of 0.26 ( ± 0.10) Gg yr−1. We estimate that emissions of SO2F2from California are equal to 5.5–12% of global SO2F2emissions.
more »
« less
- PAR ID:
- 10498820
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Communications Earth & Environment
- Volume:
- 5
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2662-4435
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract Using deposition observations from precipitation samples collected by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program at 125 sites across the United States, we show that the mean wet deposition flux of non‐sea‐salt chloride (NSS Cl−) has decreased by 83% throughout the eastern United States between 1998 and 2018. We find that 30% of the sites switch from having excess Cl− to being depleted in Cl−. We attribute the observed decreases in NSS Cl− deposition to a 95% decrease in U.S. anthropogenic HCl emissions since 1998. We propose that industry emission controls that remove HCl as a cobenefit of NOxand SO2have caused significant decreases in NSS Cl− deposition throughout the eastern United States, in addition to shifts from coal to natural gas and to coal with lower Cl− content. Our analysis implies that the lower tropospheric reactive inorganic chlorine burden was larger over the United States in the past than it is today.more » « less
-
Abstract Lentic systems (lakes and reservoirs) are emission hotpots of nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas; however, this has not been well quantified yet. Here we examine how multiple environmental forcings have affected N2O emissions from global lentic systems since the pre-industrial period. Our results show that global lentic systems emitted 64.6 ± 12.1 Gg N2O-N yr−1in the 2010s, increased by 126% since the 1850s. The significance of small lentic systems on mitigating N2O emissions is highlighted due to their substantial emission rates and response to terrestrial environmental changes. Incorporated with riverine emissions, this study indicates that N2O emissions from global inland waters in the 2010s was 319.6 ± 58.2 Gg N yr−1. This suggests a global emission factor of 0.051% for inland water N2O emissions relative to agricultural nitrogen applications and provides the country-level emission factors (ranging from 0 to 0.341%) for improving the methodology for national greenhouse gas emission inventories.more » « less
-
Abstract. To track progress towards keeping global warming well below 2 ∘C or even 1.5 ∘C, as agreed in the Paris Agreement, comprehensiveup-to-date and reliable information on anthropogenic emissions and removalsof greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is required. Here we compile a new synthetic dataset on anthropogenic GHG emissions for 1970–2018 with afast-track extension to 2019. Our dataset is global in coverage and includesCO2 emissions, CH4 emissions, N2O emissions, as well as those from fluorinated gases (F-gases: HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3) andprovides country and sector details. We build this dataset from the version 6 release of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v6) and three bookkeeping models for CO2 emissions from land use,land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). We assess the uncertainties of global greenhouse gases at the 90 % confidence interval (5th–95thpercentile range) by combining statistical analysis and comparisons ofglobal emissions inventories and top-down atmospheric measurements with anexpert judgement informed by the relevant scientific literature. We identifyimportant data gaps for F-gas emissions. The agreement between our bottom-up inventory estimates and top-downatmospheric-based emissions estimates is relatively close for some F-gasspecies (∼ 10 % or less), but estimates can differ by an order of magnitude or more for others. Our aggregated F-gas estimate is about 10 % lower than top-down estimates in recent years. However, emissions from excluded F-gas species such aschlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) or hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) arecumulatively larger than the sum of the reported species. Using globalwarming potential values with a 100-year time horizon from the Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),global GHG emissions in 2018 amounted to 58 ± 6.1 GtCO2 eq.consisting of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and industry (FFI) 38 ± 3.0 GtCO2, CO2-LULUCF 5.7 ± 4.0 GtCO2, CH4 10 ± 3.1 GtCO2 eq., N2O2.6 ± 1.6 GtCO2 eq., and F-gases 1.3 ± 0.40 GtCO2 eq. Initial estimates suggest further growth of 1.3 GtCO2 eq. in GHG emissions to reach 59 ± 6.6 GtCO2 eq. by 2019. Our analysis ofglobal trends in anthropogenic GHG emissions over the past 5 decades (1970–2018) highlights a pattern of varied but sustained emissions growth. There is high confidence that global anthropogenic GHG emissions haveincreased every decade, and emissions growth has been persistent across the different (groups of) gases. There is also high confidence that globalanthropogenic GHG emissions levels were higher in 2009–2018 than in any previous decade and that GHG emissions levels grew throughout the most recent decade. While the average annual GHG emissions growth rate slowed between2009 and 2018 (1.2 % yr−1) compared to 2000–2009 (2.4 % yr−1), the absolute increase in average annual GHG emissions by decade was neverlarger than between 2000–2009 and 2009–2018. Our analysis further revealsthat there are no global sectors that show sustained reductions in GHGemissions. There are a number of countries that have reduced GHG emissionsover the past decade, but these reductions are comparatively modest andoutgrown by much larger emissions growth in some developing countries suchas China, India, and Indonesia. There is a need to further develop independent, robust, and timely emissions estimates across all gases. As such, tracking progress in climate policy requires substantial investmentsin independent GHG emissions accounting and monitoring as well as in national and international statistical infrastructures. The data associatedwith this article (Minx et al., 2021) can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5566761.more » « less
-
Abstract Volcanism is the largest natural source of mercury (Hg) to the biosphere. However, past Hg emission estimates have varied by three orders of magnitude. Here, we present an updated central estimate and interquartile range (232 Mg a−1; IQR: 170–336 Mg a−1) for modern volcanic Hg emissions based on advances in satellite remote sensing of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and an improved method for considering uncertainty in Hg:SO2emissions ratios. Atmospheric modeling shows the influence of volcanic Hg on surface atmospheric concentrations in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere is 1.8 times higher than in the Southern Hemisphere. Spatiotemporal variability in volcanic Hg emissions may obscure atmospheric trends forced by anthropogenic emissions at some locations. This should be considered when selecting monitoring sites to inform global regulatory actions. Volcanic emission estimates from this work suggest the pre‐anthropogenic global atmospheric Hg reservoir was 580 Mg, 7‐fold lower than in 2015 (4,000 Mg).more » « less
