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Abstract Climate change is rapidly altering the distribution of suitable habitats for many species as well as their pathogenic microbes. For many pathogens, including vector‐borne diseases of humans and agricultural pathogens, climate change is expected to increase transmission and lead to pathogen range expansions. However, if pathogens have a lower heat tolerance than their host, increased warming could generate so‐called thermal refugia for hosts. Predicting the outcomes of warming on disease transmission requires detailed knowledge of the thermal tolerances of both the host and the pathogen. Such thermal tolerance studies are generally lacking for fungal pathogens of wild plant populations, despite the fact that plants form the base of all terrestrial communities. Here, we quantified three aspects of the thermal tolerance (growth, infection, and propagule production) of the naturally occurring fungal pathogenMicrobotryum lychnidis‐dioicae, which causes a sterilizing anther‐smut disease on the herbaceous plantSilene latifolia. We also quantified two aspects of host thermal tolerance: seedling survival and flowering rate. We found that temperatures >30°C reduced the ability of anther‐smut spores to germinate, grow, and conjugate in vitro. In addition, we found that high temperatures (30°C) during or shortly after the time of inoculation strongly reduced the likelihood of infection in seedlings. Finally, we found that high summer temperatures in the field temporarily cured infected plants, likely reducing transmission. Notably, high temperatures did not reduce survival or flowering of the host plants. Taken together, our results show that the fungus is considerably more sensitive to high temperatures than its host plant. A warming climate could therefore result in reduced disease spread or even local pathogen extirpation, leading to thermal refugia for the host.
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Predicting the Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases in a Warming World
Predicting how climate warming affects vector borne diseases is a key research priority. The prevailing approach uses the basic reproductive number (R0) to predict warming effects. However,R0is derived under assumptions of stationary thermal environments; using it to predict disease spread in non-stationary environments could lead to erroneous predictions. Here, we develop a trait-based mathematical model that can predict disease spread and prevalence for any vector borne disease under any type of non-stationary environment. We parameterize the model with trait response data for the Malaria vector and pathogen to test the latest IPCC predictions on warmer-than-average winters and hotter-than-average summers. We report three key findings. First, theR0formulation commonly used to investigate warming effects on disease spread violates the assumptions underlying its derivation as the dominant eigenvalue of a linearized host-vector model. As a result, it overestimates disease spread in cooler environments and underestimates it in warmer environments, proving its predictions to be unreliable even in a constant thermal environment. Second, hotter-than-average summers both narrow the thermal limits for disease prevalence, and reduce prevalence within those limits, to a much greater degree than warmer-than-average winters, highlighting the importance of hot extremes in driving disease burden. Third, while warming reduces infected vector populations through the compounding effects of adult mortality, and infected host populations through the interactive effects of mortality and transmission, uninfected vector populations prove surprisingly robust to warming. This suggests that ecological predictions of warming-induced reductions in disease burden should be tempered by the evolutionary possibility of vector adaptation to both cooler and warmer climates.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1949796
- PAR ID:
- 10500798
- Editor(s):
- György Barabás
- Publisher / Repository:
- www.frontiersin.org
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
- Volume:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 2296-701X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2022.758277
