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Abstract Climate warming is predicted to increase mean temperatures and thermal extremes on a global scale. Because their body temperature depends on the environmental temperature, ectotherms bear the full brunt of climate warming. Predicting the impact of climate warming on ectotherm diversity and distributions requires a framework that can translate temperature effects on ectotherm life‐history traits into population‐ and community‐level outcomes. Here we present a mechanistic theoretical framework that can predict the fundamental thermal niche and climate envelope of ectotherm species based on how temperature affects the underlying life‐history traits. The advantage of this framework is twofold. First, it can translate temperature effects on the phenotypic traits of individual organisms to population‐level patterns observed in nature. Second, it can predict thermal niches and climate envelopes based solely on trait response data and, hence, completely independently of any population‐level information. We find that the temperature at which the intrinsic growth rate is maximized exceeds the temperature at which abundance is maximized under density‐dependent growth. As a result, the temperature at which a species will increase the fastest when rare is lower than the temperature at which it will recover from a perturbation the fastest when abundant. We test model predictions using data from a naturalized–invasive interaction to identify the temperatures at which the invasive can most easily invade the naturalized's habitat and the naturalized is most likely to resist the invasive. The framework is sufficiently mechanistic to yield reliable predictions for individual species and sufficiently broad to apply across a range of ectothermic taxa. This ability to predict the thermal niche before a species encounters a new thermal environment is essential to mitigating some of the major effects of climate change on ectotherm populations around the globe. 

Abstract Dispersal is a crucial component of species' responses to climate warming. Warming‐induced changes in species' distributions are the outcome of how temperature affects dispersal at the individual level. Yet, there is little or no theory that considers the temperature dependence of dispersal when investigating the impacts of warming on species' distributions.Here I take a first step towards filling this key gap in our knowledge. I focus on ectotherms, species whose body temperature depends on the environmental temperature, not least because they constitute the majority of biodiversity on the planet. I develop a mathematical model of spatial population dynamics that explicitly incorporates mechanistic descriptions of ectotherm life history trait responses to temperature. A novel feature of this framework is the explicit temperature dependence of all phases of dispersal: emigration, transfer and settlement.I report three key findings. First, dispersal, regardless of whether it is random or temperature‐dependent, allows both tropical and temperate ectotherms to track warming‐induced changes in their thermal environments and to expand their distributions beyond the lower and upper thermal limits of their respective climate envelopes. In the absence of dispersal mortality, warming does not alter these new distributional limits.Second, an analysis based solely on trait response data predicts that tropical ectotherms should be able to expand their distributions polewards to a greater degree than temperate ectotherms. Analysis of the dynamical model confirms this prediction. Tropical ectotherms have an advantage when moving to cooler climates because they experience lower within‐patch and dispersal mortality, and their higher thermal optima and maximal birth rates allow them to take advantage of the warmer parts of the year. Previous theory has shown that tropical ectotherms are more successful in invading and adapting the temperate climates than vice versa. This study provides the key missing piece, by showing how temperature‐dependent dispersal could facilitate both invasion and adaptation.Third, dispersal mortality does not affect the poleward expansion of ectotherm distributions. But, it prevents both tropical and temperate ectotherms from maintaining sink populations in localities that are too warm to be viable in the absence of dispersal. Dispersal mortality also affects species' abundance patterns, causing a larger decline in abundance throughout the range when species disperse randomly rather than in response to thermal habitat suitability. In this way, dispersal mortality can facilitate the evolution of dispersal modes that maximize fitness in warmer thermal environments. 

Abstract Climate warming is the defining environmental crisis of the 21st century. Elucidating whether organisms can adapt to rapidly changing thermal environments is therefore a crucial research priority.We investigated warming effects on a native Hemipteran insect (Murgantia histrionica) that feeds on an endemic plant species (Isomeris arborea) of the California coastal sage scrub. Experiments conducted in 2009 quantified the temperature responses of juvenile maturation rates and stage‐specific and cumulative survivorship. The intervening decade has seen some of the hottest years ever recorded, with increasing mean temperatures accompanied by an increase in the frequency of hot extremes.Experiments repeated in 2021 show a striking change in the bugs' temperature responses. In 2009, no eggs developed past the second nymphal stage at 33°C. In 2021, eggs developed into reproductive adults at 33°C. Upper thermal limits for maturation and survivorship have increased, along with a decrease in mortality risk with increasing age and temperature, and a decrease in the temperature sensitivity of mortality with increasing age.While we cannot exclude the possibility that other environmental factors occurring in concert could have affected our findings, the fact that all observed trait changes are in the direction of greater heat tolerance suggests that consistent exposure to extreme heat stress may at least be partially responsible for these changes.Harlequin bugs belong to the suborder Heteroptera, which contains a number of economically important pests, biological control agents and disease carriers. Their differential success in withstanding warming compared to beneficial holometabolous insects such as pollinators may exacerbate the decline of beneficial insects due to other causes (e.g. pollution and pesticides) with potentially serious consequences on both biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. 

Abstract The interplay between species interactions and environmental variation is well‐understood for pairwise interactions but not for multi‐trophic interactions. Understanding how such interactions persist in a thermally variable environment is particularly important given that most biodiversity on the planet consists of ectotherms whose body temperature depends on the environmental temperature.Here we present a trait‐based mathematical framework for investigating how tri‐trophic food chains persist in seasonal environments. We report two key findings.First, the persistence of the tri‐trophic interaction is enhanced if species at upper trophic levels (e.g. top predators) are more cold‐adapted than those at lower levels (e.g. basal resources) by virtue of lower thermal optima, wider response breadths and lower mortality within the favourable temperature range. The important implication is that the assembly and persistence of multi‐trophic interactions requires that species at lower trophic levels be somewhat maladapted to their ambient thermal environment, as in the case of recent invasions.Second, differential sensitivity to thermally varying environments provides a mechanistic explanation for the conflict of interest between the intermediate consumer and top predator. The same cold‐adaptations that increase the consumer's ability to increase when rare deter the predator's ability to do so. Thus, being well‐adapted to its thermal environment makes the intermediate consumer better able to acquire resources and avoid predators.We predict that the hierarchy in cold‐adaptation should constrain the number of trophic levels that can be supported in a given thermal environment, and that ectotherm food chain lengths should increase with increasing latitude because larger‐amplitude seasonal fluctuations generate more opportunities for species to diverge in their thermal optima. 

Intrinsically generated oscillations are a defining feature of consumer-resource interactions. They can have important consequences for the evolution of consumer functional responses. Functional response traits that maximize resource fitness (low attack rate and long handling time) and consumer fitness (high attack rate and short handling time) generate high-amplitude oscillations that can predispose species to extinction during periods of low abundances. This suggests that the ecological consequences of consumer-resource oscillations may impede evolutionary outcomes that maximize fitness. Data suggest this to be a strong possibility. Time series analyses reveal consumer-resource cycles to be infrequent in real communities, and functional response studies show a preponderance of low attack rates and/or short handling times that preclude oscillations but maximize neither species' fitness. Here I present a mathematical model to address this tension between ecological dynamics and the evolution of functional response traits. I show that the empirically observed attack rate-handling time distributions emerge naturally from the interplay between individual-level selection and the population-level constraint of oscillation-induced extinction. Extinction at low abundances curtails stabilizing selection toward trait values that maximize fitness but induce large-amplitude oscillations. As a result, persistent interactions are those in which the mean attack rate is low and/or the mean handling time is short. These findings emphasize the importance of incorporating oscillation-induced extinction into models that link food web topology to community persistence. 

Predicting how climate warming affects vector borne diseases is a key research priority. The prevailing approach uses the basic reproductive number (R₀) to predict warming effects. However,R₀is derived under assumptions of stationary thermal environments; using it to predict disease spread in non-stationary environments could lead to erroneous predictions. Here, we develop a trait-based mathematical model that can predict disease spread and prevalence for any vector borne disease under any type of non-stationary environment. We parameterize the model with trait response data for the Malaria vector and pathogen to test the latest IPCC predictions on warmer-than-average winters and hotter-than-average summers. We report three key findings. First, theR₀formulation commonly used to investigate warming effects on disease spread violates the assumptions underlying its derivation as the dominant eigenvalue of a linearized host-vector model. As a result, it overestimates disease spread in cooler environments and underestimates it in warmer environments, proving its predictions to be unreliable even in a constant thermal environment. Second, hotter-than-average summers both narrow the thermal limits for disease prevalence, and reduce prevalence within those limits, to a much greater degree than warmer-than-average winters, highlighting the importance of hot extremes in driving disease burden. Third, while warming reduces infected vector populations through the compounding effects of adult mortality, and infected host populations through the interactive effects of mortality and transmission, uninfected vector populations prove surprisingly robust to warming. This suggests that ecological predictions of warming-induced reductions in disease burden should be tempered by the evolutionary possibility of vector adaptation to both cooler and warmer climates.