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1. Quantification of global and national nitrogen budgets for crop production

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00318-5  

   Zhang, Xin; Zou, Tan; Lassaletta, Luis; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Lisk, Matthew D.; Lu, Chaoqun; Conant, Richard T.; Dorich, Christopher D.; Gerber, James; et al (July 2021, Nature Food)

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2. Large Ensemble Exploration of Global Energy Transitions Under National Emissions Pledges

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004754  

   Wessel, Jacob; Iyer, Gokul; Wild, Thomas; Ou, Yang; McJeon, Haewon; Lamontagne, Jonathan (October 2024, Earth's Future)

   Abstract Global climate goals require a transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system. Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement through countries' nationally determined contributions and long‐term strategies represents a complex problem with consequences across multiple systems shrouded by deep uncertainty. Robust, large‐ensemble methods and analyses mapping a wide range of possible future states of the world are needed to help policymakers design effective strategies to meet emissions reduction goals. This study contributes a scenario discovery analysis applied to a large ensemble of 5,760 model realizations generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. Eleven energy‐related uncertainties are systematically varied, representing national mitigation pledges, institutional factors, and techno‐economic parameters, among others. The resulting ensemble maps how uncertainties impact common energy system metrics used to characterize national and global pathways toward deep decarbonization. Results show globally consistent but regionally variable energy transitions as measured by multiple metrics, including electricity costs and stranded assets. Larger economies and developing regions experience more severe economic outcomes across a broad sampling of uncertainty. The scale of CO₂removal globally determines how much the energy system can continue to emit, but the relative role of different CO₂removal options in meeting decarbonization goals varies across regions. Previous studies characterizing uncertainty have typically focused on a few scenarios, and other large‐ensemble work has not (to our knowledge) combined this framework with national emissions pledges or institutional factors. Our results underscore the value of large‐ensemble scenario discovery for decision support as countries begin to design strategies to meet their goals. 

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3. Real-time forecasting the trajectory of monkeypox outbreaks at the national and global levels, July–October 2022

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-022-02725-2  

   Bleichrodt, Amanda; Dahal, Sushma; Maloney, Kevin; Casanova, Lisa; Luo, Ruiyan; Chowell, Gerardo (January 2023, BMC Medicine)

   Abstract BackgroundBeginning May 7, 2022, multiple nations reported an unprecedented surge in monkeypox cases. Unlike past outbreaks, differences in affected populations, transmission mode, and clinical characteristics have been noted. With the existing uncertainties of the outbreak, real-time short-term forecasting can guide and evaluate the effectiveness of public health measures. MethodsWe obtained publicly available data on confirmed weekly cases of monkeypox at the global level and for seven countries (with the highest burden of disease at the time this study was initiated) from the Our World in Data (OWID) GitHub repository and CDC website. We generated short-term forecasts of new cases of monkeypox across the study areas using an ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework based on weekly cases using 10-week calibration periods. We report and assess the weekly forecasts with quantified uncertainty from the top-ranked, second-ranked, and ensemble sub-epidemic models. Overall, we conducted 324 weekly sequential 4-week ahead forecasts across the models from the week of July 28th, 2022, to the week of October 13th, 2022. ResultsThe last 10 of 12 forecasting periods (starting the week of August 11th, 2022) show either a plateauing or declining trend of monkeypox cases for all models and areas of study. According to our latest 4-week ahead forecast from the top-ranked model, a total of 6232 (95% PI 487.8, 12,468.0) cases could be added globally from the week of 10/20/2022 to the week of 11/10/2022. At the country level, the top-ranked model predicts that the USA will report the highest cumulative number of new cases for the 4-week forecasts (median based on OWID data: 1806 (95% PI 0.0, 5544.5)). The top-ranked and weighted ensemble models outperformed all other models in short-term forecasts. ConclusionsOur top-ranked model consistently predicted a decreasing trend in monkeypox cases on the global and country-specific scale during the last ten sequential forecasting periods. Our findings reflect the potential impact of increased immunity, and behavioral modification among high-risk populations. 

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4. Global norm of national treatment for patent uncertainties: A longitudinal comparison between the US and China

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jwb.2017.10.003  

   Yang, Deli; Sonmez, Mahmut (February 2018, Journal of World Business)
5. Global nitrogen deposition inputs to cropland at national scale from 1961 to 2020

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02385-8  

   Vishwakarma, Srishti; Zhang, Xin; Dobermann, Achim; Heffer, Patrick; Zhou, Feng (July 2023, Scientific Data)

   Abstract Nitrogen (N) deposition is a significant nutrient input to cropland and consequently important for the evaluation of N budgets and N use efficiency (NUE) at different scales and over time. However, the spatiotemporal coverage of N deposition measurements is limited globally, whereas modeled N deposition values carry uncertainties. Here, we reviewed existing methods and related data sources for quantifying N deposition inputs to crop production on a national scale. We utilized different data sources to estimate N deposition input to crop production at national scale and compared our estimates with 14 N budget datasets, as well as measured N deposition data from observation networks in 9 countries. We created four datasets of N deposition inputs on cropland during 1961–2020 for 236 countries. These products showed good agreement for the majority of countries and can be used in the modeling and assessment of NUE at national and global scales. One of the datasets is recommended for general use in regional to global N budget and NUE estimates. 

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