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Abstract AimTo better understand the potential impact of climate change on butterfly assemblages across a tropical island, we model the potential for taxonomic and functional homogenization and determine climate‐ and trait‐mediated shifts in projected species distributions. LocationPuerto Rico. MethodsWe used thousands of museum records of diurnal Lepidoptera to model current (1970–2000) and forecast future (2061–2080) species distributions and combined these to test for taxonomic and functional homogenization. We then quantified climatic‐mediated effects on current and forecasted taxonomic and functional composition and, specifically, whether temperature was a primary driver, as predicted by the temperature–size rule and the thermal melanism hypotheses. Finally, we measured wing traits important in thermoregulation (size and colour) and determined trait‐mediated changes in forecasted species distributions over time. ResultsBased on ensemble model outputs, taxonomic and functional richness and turnover were predicted to vary across the island's complex topography. Our models projected an increase in taxonomic and functional richness over time, and a decrease in taxonomic and functional turnover – a signature of biotic homogenization. Under future climate scenarios, models projected a decrease in wing length and an increase in wing brightness at higher elevations. One variable, temperature seasonality, was the strongest predicted driver of both the current spatial distribution and the projected per cent change over time for not only wing traits but also taxonomic and functional richness and turnover. Main conclusionsThe species distribution models generated here identify several priority regions and species for future research and conservation efforts. Our work also highlights the role of seasonality and climatic variability on diverse tropical Lepidoptera assemblages, suggesting that climatic variability may be an important, albeit overlooked, driver of climate change responses.
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Lepidoptera research in Puerto Rico: Reconnecting with historical legacies to guide future priorities
Abstract The Caribbean archipelago of Puerto Rico supports a diverse flora and fauna and is located in a region characterized by complex socio‐economic and environmental change. The diversity of entomofauna across Puerto Rico has received considerable attention in wide‐scale research over the last century, with particular emphasis on the order Lepidoptera as the subject of substantial taxonomic and ecological surveys. However, much of this work is incomplete, outdated, or has been obscured in gray literature. Thus, our primary objectives were to contextualize the role of past research in the current understanding of Puerto Rican Lepidoptera and to outline an agenda for future research. Specifically, we provide an overview of taxonomic, ecological, agricultural, and conservation Lepidoptera research in Puerto Rico and highlight key studies and historical datasets. We found that, despite a strong taxonomic legacy, native moth taxonomy remains poorly understood, except for a few major pests. Further, much of the recent Lepidoptera research has focused on short‐term evaluations of agricultural pests, necessitated by immediate economic needs. The current ecological status of Lepidoptera on the islands is unknown. Therefore, prioritizing ecological research could provide timely insight for understanding changing Lepidoptera diversity and distribution and for conserving this biologically and economically significant group. Greater emphasis on long‐term monitoring and digitization of museum collections would be particularly useful for quantifying past and forecasting future impacts of global change. Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2042453
- PAR ID:
- 10504160
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Biotropica
- Volume:
- 55
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 0006-3606
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1215 to 1232
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1111/btp.13278
