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Faults are usually surrounded by damage zones associated with localized deformation. Here we use fully dynamic earthquake cycle simulations to quantify the behaviors of earthquakes in fault damage zones. We show that fault damage zones can make a significant contribution to the spatial and temporal seismicity distribution. Fault stress heterogeneities generated by fault zone waves persist over multiple earthquake cycles that, in turn, produce small earthquakes that are absent in homogeneous simulations with the same friction conditions. Shallow fault zones can produce a bimodal depth distribution of earthquakes with clustering of seismicity at both shallower and deeper depths. Fault zone healing during the interseismic period also promotes the penetration of aseismic slip into the locked region and reduces the sizes of fault asperities that host earthquakes. Hence, small and moderate subsurface earthquakes with irregular recurrence intervals are commonly observed in immature fault zone simulations with interseismic healing. To link our simulation results to geological observations, we will use simulated fault slip at different depths to infer the timing and recurrence intervals of earthquakes and discuss how such measurements can affect our understanding of earthquake behaviors. We will also show that the maturity and material properties of fault damage zones have strong influence on whether long-term earthquake characteristics are represented by single events.
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Stress-driven recurrence and precursory moment-rate surge in caldera collapse earthquakes
Predicting the recurrence times of earthquakes and understanding the physical processes that immediately precede them are two outstanding problems in seismology. Although geodetic measurements record elastic strain accumulation, most faults have recurrence intervals longer than available measurements. Foreshocks provide the principal observations of processes before mainshocks, but variability between sequences limits generalizations of pre-failure behaviour. Here we analyse seismicity and deformation data for highly characteristic caldera collapse earthquakes from 2018 Kīlauea Volcano (Hawaii, USA), with a mean recurrence interval of 1.4 days. These events provide a unique test of stress-induced earthquake recurrence and document processes preceding mainshocks with magnitude greater than five. We show that recurrence intervals are well predicted by stress histories inferred from near-field deformation measurements and that cycle-averaged seismicity reveals a critical phase, minutes before mainshocks, where earthquakes grew larger and seismic moment rate surged dramatically. The average moment rate in the final 15 minutes (0.7% of the mean cycle duration) was 4.75 times the background, a highly significant change. We infer that as the average stress increased, ruptures were more likely to overcome geometric barriers and grow larger, leading to characteristic, whole-fault ruptures. These findings imply that stress heterogeneity influences both earthquake nucleation and growth, including on potentially hazardous tectonic faults.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2040425
- PAR ID:
- 10504629
- Publisher / Repository:
- Springer Nature
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Geoscience
- Volume:
- 17
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 1752-0894
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 264 to 269
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01372-3
