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Abstract The inconsistency between experiments in the measurements of the local Universe expansion rate, the Hubble constant, suggests unknown systematics in the existing experiments or new physics. Gravitational-wave standard sirens, a method to independently provide direct measurements of the Hubble constant, have the potential to address this tension. Before that, it is critical to ensure there are no substantial systematics in the standard siren method. A significant systematic has been identified when the viewing angle of the gravitational-wave sources, the compact binary coalescences, was inferred inaccurately from electromagnetic observations of the sources. Such a systematic has led to a more than 10% discrepancy in the standard siren Hubble constant measurements with the observations of binary neutron star merger, GW170817. In this Letter, we develop a new formalism to infer and mitigate this systematic. We demonstrate that the systematic uncertainty of the Hubble constant measurements can be reduced to a level smaller than their statistical uncertainty with 5, 10, and 20 binary neutron star merger observations. We show that our formalism successfully reduces the systematics even if the shape of the biased viewing angle distribution does not follow precisely the model we choose. Our formalism ensures unbiased standard siren Hubble constant measurements when the binary viewing angles are inferred from electromagnetic observations.
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Mitigating the Counterpart Selection Effect for Standard Sirens
The disagreement in the Hubble constant measured by different cosmological probes highlights the need for a better understanding of the observations or new physics. The standard siren method, a novel approach using gravitational-wave observations to determine the distance to binary mergers, has great potential to provide an independent measurement of the Hubble constant and shed light on the tension in the next few years. To realize this goal, we must thoroughly understand the sources of potential systematic bias of standard sirens. Among the known sources of systematic uncertainties, selection effects originating from electromagnetic counterpart observations of gravitational-wave sources may dominate the measurements with percent-level bias and no method to mitigate this effect is currently established. In this Letter, we develop a new formalism to mitigate the counterpart selection effect. We show that our formalism can reduce the systematic uncertainty of standard siren Hubble constant measurement to less than {the statistical uncertainty with a simulated population of 200 observations ($$\lesssim 1\%$$) for a realistic electromagnetic emission model}. We conclude with how to apply our formalism to different electromagnetic emissions and observing scenarios.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2308752
- PAR ID:
- 10506029
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Physical Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Physical Review Letters
- Volume:
- 132
- Issue:
- 19
- ISSN:
- 0031-9007
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.132.191003
