An official website of the United States government
Abstract The power performance and the wind velocity field of an onshore wind farm are predicted with machine learning models and the pseudo‐2D RANS model, then assessed against SCADA data. The wind farm under investigation is one of the sites involved with the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN). The performed simulations enable predictions of the power capture at the farm and turbine levels while providing insights into the effects on power capture associated with wake interactions that operating upstream turbines induce, as well as the variability caused by atmospheric stability. The machine learning models show improved accuracy compared to the pseudo‐2D RANS model in the predictions of turbine power capture and farm power capture with roughly half the normalized error. The machine learning models also entail lower computational costs upon training. Further, the machine learning models provide predictions of the wind turbulence intensity at the turbine level for different wind and atmospheric conditions with very good accuracy, which is difficult to achieve through RANS modeling. Additionally, farm‐to‐farm interactions are noted, with adverse impacts on power predictions from both models.
more »
« less
Applying various machine learning techniques to predict material properties
This poster looks to apply machine learning in different aspects such as predicting dynamic viscosity of ionic liquids, determining parameters to generate a nonwoven mat through electrospinning, and predictions of extent of damage along with residual strength in fiber reinforced polymer composites. Through the use of machine learning we look to better understand the factors that go into each of these predictions and to eliminate time and costs in each process.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2152210
- PAR ID:
- 10507161
- Publisher / Repository:
- NA
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- NRT Annual Meeting
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Location:
- Blacksburg, VA
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
While there are several bottlenecks in hybrid organic–inorganic perovskite (HOIP) solar cell production steps, including composition screening, fabrication, material stability, and device performance, machine learning approaches have begun to tackle each of these issues in recent years. Different algorithms have successfully been adopted to solve the unique problems at each step of HOIP development. Specifically, high-throughput experimentation produces vast amount of training data required to effectively implement machine learning methods. Here, we present an overview of machine learning models, including linear regression, neural networks, deep learning, and statistical forecasting. Experimental examples from the literature, where machine learning is applied to HOIP composition screening, thin film fabrication, thin film characterization, and full device testing, are discussed. These paradigms give insights into the future of HOIP solar cell research. As databases expand and computational power improves, increasingly accurate predictions of the HOIP behavior are becoming possible.more » « less
-
With an increased focus on incorporating fairness in machine learning models, it becomes imperative not only to assess and mitigate bias at each stage of the machine learning pipeline but also to understand the downstream impacts of bias across stages. Here we consider a general, but realistic, scenario in which a predictive model is learned from (potentially biased) training data, and model predictions are assessed post-hoc for fairness by some auditing method. We provide a theoretical analysis of how a specific form of data bias, differential sampling bias, propagates from the data stage to the prediction stage. Unlike prior work, we evaluate the downstream impacts of data biases quantitatively rather than qualitatively and prove theoretical guarantees for detection. Under reasonable assumptions, we quantify how the amount of bias in the model predictions varies as a function of the amount of differential sampling bias in the data, and at what point this bias becomes provably detectable by the auditor. Through experiments on two criminal justice datasets– the well-known COMPAS dataset and historical data from NYPD’s stop and frisk policy– we demonstrate that the theoretical results hold in practice even when our assumptions are relaxed.more » « less
-
Tree-based machine learning models such as random forests, decision trees and gradient boosted trees are popular nonlinear predictive models, yet comparatively little attention has been paid to explaining their predictions. Here we improve the interpretability of tree-based models through three main contributions. (1) A polynomial time algorithm to compute optimal explanations based on game theory. (2) A new type of explanation that directly measures local feature interaction effects. (3) A new set of tools for understanding global model structure based on combining many local explanations of each prediction. We apply these tools to three medical machine learning problems and show how combining many high-quality local explanations allows us to represent global structure while retaining local faithfulness to the original model. These tools enable us to (1) identify high-magnitude but low-frequency nonlinear mortality risk factors in the US population, (2) highlight distinct population subgroups with shared risk characteristics, (3) identify nonlinear interaction effects among risk factors for chronic kidney disease and (4) monitor a machine learning model deployed in a hospital by identifying which features are degrading the model’s performance over time. Given the popularity of tree-based machine learning models, these improvements to their interpretability have implications across a broad set of domains.more » « less
-
Protein–protein interfaces play essential roles in a variety of biological processes and many therapeutic molecules are targeted at these interfaces. However, accurate predictions of the effects of interfacial mutations to identify “hotspots” have remained elusive despite the myriad of modeling and machine learning methods tested. Here, for the first time, we demonstrate that nonlinear reweighting of energy terms from Rosetta, through the use of machine learning, exhibits improved predictability of ΔΔ G values associated with interfacial mutations.more » « less
