An official website of the United States government
Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events—the most common duration of drought—globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function—aboveground net primary production (ANPP)—was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.
more »
« less
Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies
Abstract. Climatic extreme events are expected to occur more frequently in the future, increasing the likelihood of unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) or record-breaking events. UCEs, such as extreme heatwaves and droughts, substantially affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling by increasing plant mortality and delaying ecosystem recovery. Quantitative knowledge of such effects is limited due to the paucity of experiments focusing on extreme climatic events beyond the range of historical experience. Here, we present a road map of how dynamic vegetation demographic models (VDMs) can be used to investigate hypotheses surrounding ecosystem responses to one type of UCE: unprecedented droughts. As a result of nonlinear ecosystem responses to UCEs that are qualitatively different from responses to milder extremes, we consider both biomass loss and recovery rates over time by reporting a time-integrated carbon loss as a result of UCE, relative to the absence of drought. Additionally, we explore how unprecedented droughts in combination with increasing atmospheric CO2 and/or temperature may affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling. We explored these questions using simulations of pre-drought and post-drought conditions at well-studied forest sites using well-tested models (ED2 and LPJ-GUESS). The severity and patterns of biomass losses differed substantially between models. For example, biomass loss could be sensitive to either drought duration or drought intensity depending on the model approach. This is due to the models having different, but also plausible, representations of processes and interactions, highlighting the complicated variability of UCE impacts that still need to be narrowed down in models. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2) alone did not completely buffer the ecosystems from carbon losses during UCEs in the majority of our simulations. Our findings highlight the consequences of differences in process formulations and uncertainties in models, most notably related to availability in plant carbohydrate storage and the diversity of plant hydraulic schemes, in projecting potential ecosystem responses to UCEs. We provide a summary of the current state and role of many model processes that give way to different underlying hypotheses of plant responses to UCEs, reflecting knowledge gaps which in future studies could be tested with targeted field experiments and an iterative modeling–experimental conceptual framework.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1655499
- PAR ID:
- 10508537
- Publisher / Repository:
- European Geosciences Union
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Biogeosciences
- Volume:
- 20
- Issue:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 1726-4189
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 2117 to 2142
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
The fluxes of energy, water, and carbon from terrestrial ecosystems influence the atmosphere. Land–atmosphere feedbacks can intensify extreme climate events like severe droughts and heatwaves because low soil moisture decreases both evaporation and plant transpiration and increases local temperature. Here, we combine data from a network of temperate and boreal eddy covariance towers, satellite data, plant trait datasets, and a mechanistic vegetation model to diagnose the controls of soil moisture feedbacks to drought. We find that climate and plant functional traits, particularly those related to maximum leaf gas exchange rate and water transport through the plant hydraulic continuum, jointly affect drought intensification. Our results reveal that plant physiological traits directly affect drought intensification and indicate that inclusion of plant hydraulic transport mechanisms in models may be critical for accurately simulating land–atmosphere feedbacks and climate extremes under climate change.more » « less
-
Abstract Climate change is causing marked shifts to historic environmental regimes, including increases in precipitation events (droughts and highly wet periods). Relative to droughts, the impacts of wet events have received less attention, despite heavy rainfall events increasing over the past century. Further, impacts of wet and dry events are often evaluated independently; yet, to persist and maintain their ecosystem functions, plant communities must be resilient to both precipitation events. This is particularly critical because while community properties can modulate the resilience (resistance, recovery, and invariability) of ecosystem functions to precipitation events, community properties can also respond to precipitation events. As a result, community responses to wet and dry years may impact the community's resilience to future events.Using two decades (2000–2020) of annual net primary productivity data from early successional grassland communities, we evaluated the plant community properties regulating primary productivity resistance and recovery to contrasting precipitation events and invariability (i.e. long‐term stability). We then explored how resilience‐modulating community properties responded to precipitation.We found that community properties—specifically, evenness, dominant species (Solidago altissima) relative abundance, and species richness—strongly regulate productivity resistance to drought and predict productivity invariability and tended to promote resistance to wet years. These community properties also responded to both wet and dry precipitation extremes and exhibited lagged responses that lasted into the next growing season. We infer that these connections between precipitation events, community properties, and resilience may lead to feedbacks impacting a plant community's resilience to subsequent precipitation events.Synthesis. By exploring the impacts of both drought and wet extremes, our work uncovers how precipitation events, which may not necessarily impact productivity directly, could still cryptically influence resilience via shifts in resilience‐promoting properties of the plant community. We conclude that these precipitation event‐driven community shifts may feedback to impact long‐term productivity resilience under climate change.more » « less
-
As droughts become longer and more intense, impacts on terrestrial primary productivity are expected to increase progressively. Yet, some ecosystems appear to acclimate to multiyear drought, with constant or diminishing reductions in productivity as drought duration increases. We quantified the combined effects of drought duration and intensity on aboveground productivity in 74 grasslands and shrublands distributed globally. Ecosystem acclimation with multiyear drought was observed overall, except when droughts were extreme (i.e., ≤1-in-100-year likelihood of occurrence). Productivity losses after four consecutive years of extreme drought increased by ~2.5-fold compared with those of the first year. These results portend a foundational shift in ecosystem behavior if drought duration and intensity increase, from maintenance of reduced functioning over time to progressive and profound losses of productivity when droughts are extreme.more » « less
-
Within seasonal temperate forests, changes in precipitation structure—its form, duration, and seasonal timing—is a dominant characteristic of climate change. While past research has focused primarily on annual precipitation totals, emerging evidence shows that short-duration extreme precipitation can impact ecosystem carbon, water, and biogeochemical cycling when it coincides with key phenological and physiological transitions. These impacts are mediated by the responses of plant and microbial physiology, aboveground–belowground interactions, and lagged feedbacks as organisms and communities adjust to these extremes. This review focuses on shifts within ecosystem water cycling, within tree growth dynamics (carbon uptake and aboveground–belowground allocation and coordination), within soil biogeochemical cycling, from the loss of winter snow, and in forest structure and community composition. Together, these concepts highlight the urgent need to understand how changes in all aspects of precipitation structure reshape the functioning and resilience of mesic temperate forests.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023
