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Multivariate climate change presents an urgent need to understand how species adapt to complex environments. Population genetic theory predicts that loci under selection will form monotonic allele frequency clines with their selective environment, which has led to the wide use of genotype–environment associations (GEAs). This study used a set of simulations to elucidate the conditions under which allele frequency clines are more or less likely to evolve as multiple quantitative traits adapt to multivariate environments. Phenotypic clines evolved with nonmonotonic (i.e., nonclinal) patterns in allele frequencies under conditions that promoted unique combinations of mutations to achieve the multivariate optimum in different parts of the landscape. Such conditions resulted from interactions among landscape, demography, pleiotropy, and genetic architecture. GEA methods failed to accurately infer the genetic basis of adaptation under a range of scenarios due to first principles (clinal patterns did not evolve) or statistical issues (clinal patterns evolved but were not detected due to overcorrection for structure). Despite the limitations of GEAs, this study shows that a back-transformation of multivariate ordination can accurately predict individual multivariate traits from genotype and environmental data regardless of whether inference from GEAs was accurate. In addition, frameworks are introduced that can be used by empiricists to quantify the importance of clinal alleles in adaptation. This research highlights that multivariate trait prediction from genotype and environmental data can lead to accurate inference regardless of whether the underlying loci display clinal or nonmonotonic patterns.
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Output model data from paradox of adaptive trait clines with non-clinal patterns in the underlying genes (Model Validation Program project)
Background: Multivariate climate change presents an urgent need to understand how species adapt to complex environments. Population genetic theory predicts that loci under selection will form monotonic allele frequency clines with their selective environment, which has led to the wide use of genotype-environment associations (GEAs). This study used a novel set of In silico simulations to elucidate the conditions under which allele frequency clines are more or less likely to evolve as multiple quantitative traits adapt to multivariate environments. Zenodo archive of GitHub Repository of all code used to create the simulations. Every directory includes a README describing the code, and metadata files are included for the archived outputs. Modeling code details: Code was developed 2020-2022 Simulation code was developed in SLiM, recapitated in pyslim, filtered with vcftools, and analyzed with R. Code was developed by K. E. Lotterhos (PI)
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- Award ID(s):
- 2043905
- PAR ID:
- 10510052
- Publisher / Repository:
- Biological and Chemical Oceanography Data Management Office (BCO-DMO)
- Date Published:
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- eco-evo simulations Estuary Local adaptation population genomics multivariate ordination
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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