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Title: Disentangling local and global climate drivers in the population dynamics of mosquito-borne infections
Identifying climate drivers is essential to understand and predict epidemics of mosquito-borne infections whose population dynamics typically exhibit seasonality and multiannual cycles. Which climate covariates to consider varies across studies, from local factors such as temperature to remote drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. With partial wavelet coherence, we present a systematic investigation of nonstationary associations between mosquito-borne disease incidence and a given climate factor while controlling for another. Analysis of almost 200 time series of dengue and malaria around the globe at different geographical scales shows a systematic effect of global climate drivers on interannual variability and of local ones on seasonality. This clear separation of time scales of action enhances detection of climate drivers and indicates those best suited for building early-warning systems.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2414688
PAR ID:
10512382
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
the American Association for the Advancement of Science
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Science Advances
Volume:
9
Issue:
39
ISSN:
2375-2548
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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