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1. Understanding the Implications of Port-Related Workforce Shortages on Global Maritime Performance through the Study of a Carrier Alliance 2023

   https://doi.org/10.18739/a2rb6w41r  

   Li, Wenjie; Miller-Hooks, Elise (January 2023, NSF Arctic Data Center)

   Maintaining a full workforce is critical to the operational efficiency of ports, which are key to the functioning of global maritime transportation systems, as well as to the larger logistics systems and the industries they support. A shortage of skilled workers, or extended, large-scale, absenteeism at one or more ports can affect cargohandling operations, competitiveness and even the efficiency of international trade. Through numerical experiments, we study (i) whether the effects of low-level workforce shortages can be ‘absorbed’ without loss of efficiency; (ii) the level at which shortages in a region can impact another region, or the performance of the wider maritime system. To test this, we investigate the ports used by the M2 shipping alliance of Maersk Line and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC). The analysis is supported by advanced mathematical modeling and algorithmic procedures. Findings include that low- and even mid-level network-wide worker shortages can be absorbed, but at a greater cost to shippers. Moreover, when a worker shortage arises in some regions of the world, the impacts in other regions can be very significant. 

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2. Enhancing Resilience through Port Coalitions in Maritime Freight Networks 2020

   https://doi.org/10.18739/a2w37kx5g  

   Li, Wenjie; Miller-Hooks, Elise (January 2022, NSF Arctic Data Center)

   Reliable port services are key to maritime freight transport system performance. These systems are vulnerable to disasters of anthropogenic or natural cause, which can significantly impact port capacity, handling times and overall system performance. To improve resilience of individual ports, strategies involving capacity sharing and protective cross-port investments through coalition formation are proposed. This collaborative port protection and investment approach to improve individual and system-level port resilience is formulated as an Equilibrium Problem with Equilibrium Constraints. That is, the program is bi-level with multiple players in the upper level and a common liner shipping problem in the lower level. Its solution is obtained at a Nash equilibrium wherein no port stakeholder can achieve better performance by unilaterally changing its investment plan. A Stackelberg equilibrium between upper and lower levels infers that best investment decisions are made given competition between ports and the market’s response to improvements. The benefits of regional coalitions in this co-opetitive (competitive and collaborative) environment in terms of port and system resilience, port- and system-level demand fulfilment rates and return on investment are investigated from multiple perspectives, including the perspectives of shippers, port owners and the larger shipping network. With insights gained through study of the proposed coalition policies, this work aims to facilitate port authorities in making decisions on port capacity expansion, infrastructure investment and forming strategic partnerships. Shipping companies may also take into consideration the ability of a port to provide service under disruption events when choosing which ports to include in their service loops. 

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3. An updatable and comprehensive global cargo maritime network and strategic seaborne cargo routing model for global containerized and bulk vessel flow estimation 2021

   https://doi.org/10.18739/a2zw18v0q  

   Li, Wenjie; Pundt, Ralph; Miller-Hooks, Elise (January 2021, NSF Arctic Data Center)

   {"Abstract":["The global maritime system provides the backbone of logistics operations for global supply chains and international trade. This paper aims to develop a unifying global network representation and strategic, system-wide decision model, the Strategic Cargo Routing Model, incorporating both liner and bulk shipping markets to estimate real-world traffic flows and study traffic patterns at the global scale. Specifically, taking a shipper's perspective, containerized and bulk movements are jointly modelled within a mixed-integer linear program that includes inbound, outbound, and transshipment cargo flows at ports. An iterative approach that combines heuristic Gradient Descent and Relax-and-Fix Decomposition methods is proposed for the calibration and solution of the Strategic Cargo Routing Model over a proposed joint liner and bulk services Global Cargo Shipping Network representation. The Global Cargo Shipping Network contains 161 seaports covering 52 countries. It is created from updatable, publicly available, data sources, and all data needed for the network representation are made available. Sufficient network details, as well as data sources and methods for extracting needed inputs, are given to allow others to use and update the network. Using the developed maritime network, mathematical model and calibration-solution methodology, 2018 global maritime traffic flow patterns were estimated. The estimates were found to achieve a 91% fit overall to real-world average annual port throughputs. This strategic model provides support to evaluate future, real-world, worldwide changes, such as increased seaborne trade demand, new routes, shipping infrastructure expansion, and transport policies.\n * In the data subnetwork X=(0, 1, 2) refers to containerized cargo, liquid bulk and dry bulk respectively. for example, flowX shows flows in subnetworks of X=(0, 1, 2) accordingly. portThrouX.csv shows port throughputs in subnetworks of X=(0, 1, 2) accordingly.\n **In the uploaded data, the files starting with input... means they are inputs for the model, and other files are outputs.\n **Note that the uploaded materials can be used based on the uploaded paper "Wenjie Li, Ralph Pundt and Elise Miller-Hooks. (2021). An updatable and comprehensive global cargo maritime network and strategic seaborne cargo routing model for global containerized and bulk vessel flow estimation 2021.""]} 

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4. Global-TRANSIT: modeling global historic sailing using a least-cost surface analysis

   https://doi.org/10.1080/15230406.2024.2445262  

   Roberts, Lucinda; Merson, Joanna; Wong, Woan Foong (November 2025, Cartography and Geographic Information Science)

   Cost-surface analyses in geographic information systems (GIS) can be a useful tool for approximating the travel of historic sailing ships to fill gaps in the historic record. We present the Global-TRANSIT workflow, a least-cost surface raster analysis that uses wind speed and direction to estimate sailing routes and durations for ports globally. Our workflow, freely available as a Python notebook for ArcGIS Pro, makes three contributions relative to previously published toolkits. First, our workflow estimates sail travel for ports at the global scale while accounting for projection-related challenges. Second, our workflow evaluates origin and destination pairs in a many-origins-to-many-destinations matrix structure (compared to previous one-origin-to-one-destination relationship) which increases the scalability of our toolbox. Third, our workflow replaces the deprecated tools used in the previous work with newer tools that reduce the grid-induced bias. Despite the expected limitations of modeling a complex phenomenon like sailing, we find a high correlation between our modeled estimates and historically observed sail duration and routes. The outputs of Global-TRANSIT provide an approximation of the likely duration and route of sail travel between worldwide ports, serving as a reference for understanding historic sail voyage patterns globally and as a benchmark for measuring the evolution of maritime shipping over time. 

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5. Economic Viability and Emissions of Multimodal Transportation Infrastructure in a Changing Arctic

   https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0151.1  

   Goldstein, Michael_A; Lynch, Amanda_H; Yan, Ruitian; Veland, Siri; Talleri, William (July 2022, Weather, Climate, and Society)

   Abstract As Arctic open water increases, shipping activity to and from mid- and western Russian Arctic ports to points south has notably increased. A number of Arctic municipalities hope increased vessel traffic will create opportunities to become a major transshipment hub. However, even with more traffic passing these ports, it might still be economically cheaper to offload cargo at a more southern port, which may also result in lower emissions. Ultimately, the question of whether to use a transshipment in the Arctic versus an established major European port is determined by the relative costs (or emissions) of sea versus land travel. This study calculates the relative competitiveness of six Norwegian coastal cities as multimodal hubs for shipments. We quantify the relative prices and CO₂emissions for sea and land travel for routes starting at the Norwegian–Russian sea border with an ultimate destination in central Europe and find that all existing routes are not competitive with routes using the major existing Port of Rotterdam (Netherlands); even with investments in port expansion and modernization, they would be underutilized regardless of an increase in vessel traffic destined for central Europe. We then examine under what relative prices (emissions) these routes become economically viable or result in lower emissions than using existing southern ports. Notably, the cheapest routes generally produce the lowest emissions, and the most expensive routes tend to have the largest emissions. Communities should consider relative competitiveness prior to making large infrastructure investments. While some choices are physically possible, they may not be economically viable. Significance StatementClimate change, while disruptive, can also create new opportunities. Many Arctic cities hope to become a major transshipping hub as declining sea ice opens new shipping routes from western and mid-Russian Arctic ports to European ports. This paper quantifies the relative competitiveness of six Norwegian coastal cities as multimodal transportation hubs and finds that they are uncompetitive with the more southern port in Rotterdam (Netherlands). We also show that the most economically competitive routes have lower direct emissions. Thus, while Arctic ports provide critical services in support of local and regional economic activity, even with year-round Arctic navigation Arctic ports’ development into major transshipment hubs for cargo destined for more distant locations may be neither economically viable nor desirable. 

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