Atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) is expected to increase under greenhouse gas–induced global warming, but a recent regional study also suggests enhanced convective inhibition (CIN) over land although its cause is not well understood. In this study, a global climate model is first evaluated by comparing its CAPE and CIN with reanalysis data, and then their future changes and the underlying causes are examined. The climate model reasonably captures the present-day CAPE and CIN patterns seen in the reanalysis, and projects increased CAPE almost everywhere and stronger CIN over most land under global warming. Over land, the cases or times with medium to strong CAPE or CIN would increase while cases with weak CAPE or CIN would decrease, leading to an overall strengthening in their mean values. These projected changes are confirmed by convection-permitting 4-km model simulations over the United States. The CAPE increase results mainly from increased low-level specific humidity, which leads to more latent heating and buoyancy for a lifted parcel above the level of free convection (LFC) and also a higher level of neutral buoyancy. The enhanced CIN over most land results mainly from reduced low-level relative humidity (RH), which leads to a higher lifting condensation level and a higher LFC and thus more negative buoyancy. Over tropical oceans, the near-surface RH increases slightly, leading to slight weakening of CIN. Over the subtropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean, the impact of reduced low-level atmospheric lapse rates overshadows the effect of increased specific humidity, leading to decreased CAPE.
Atmospheric instability affects the formation of convective storms, but how it has changed during recent decades is unknown. Here we analyze the occurrence frequency of stable and unstable atmospheric conditions over land using homogenized radiosonde data from 1979 to 2020. We show that atmospheric stable (unstable) conditions have decreased (increased) significantly by ∼8%–32% (of time) from 1979 to 2020 over most land areas. In boreal summer, the mean positive buoyancy (i.e., convective available potential energy [CAPE]) also increases over East Asia while mean negative buoyancy (i.e., convective inhibition [CIN]) strengthens over Europe and North America from midnight‐dawn for unstable cases. The increased unstable cases and mean CAPE result from increased low‐level specific humidity and air temperature, which increase the buoyancy of a lifted parcel. The stronger CIN results from decreased near‐surface relatively humidity and decreased lapse rate in the lower troposphere. Our results suggest that the atmosphere has become increasingly unstable, which could lead to more convective storms.
more » « less- PAR ID:
- 10513460
- Publisher / Repository:
- AGU
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 50
- Issue:
- 20
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106125
