We utilize a coupled economy–agroecology–hydrology modeling framework to capture the cascading impacts of climate change mitigation policy on agriculture and the resulting water quality cobenefits. We analyze a policy that assigns a range of United States government’s social cost of carbon estimates ($51, $76, and $152/ton of CO2-equivalents) to fossil fuel–based CO2emissions. This policy raises energy costs and, importantly for agriculture, boosts the price of nitrogen fertilizer production. At the highest carbon price, US carbon emissions are reduced by about 50%, and nitrogen fertilizer prices rise by about 90%, leading to an approximate 15% reduction in fertilizer applications for corn production across the Mississippi River Basin. Corn and soybean production declines by about 7%, increasing crop prices by 6%, while nitrate leaching declines by about 10%. Simulated nitrate export to the Gulf of Mexico decreases by 8%, ultimately shrinking the average midsummer area of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic area by 3% and hypoxic volume by 4%. We also consider the additional benefits of restored wetlands to mitigate nitrogen loading to reduce hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico and find a targeted wetland restoration scenario approximately doubles the effect of a low to moderate social cost of carbon. Wetland restoration alone exhibited spillover effects that increased nitrate leaching in other parts of the basin which were mitigated with the inclusion of the carbon policy. We conclude that a national climate policy aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States would have important water quality cobenefits.
This content will become publicly available on March 28, 2025
Restoring wetlands will reduce nitrogen contamination from excess fertilization but estimates of the efficacy of the strategy vary widely. The intervention is often described as effective for reducing nitrogen export from watersheds to mediate bottom-level hypoxia threatening marine ecosystems. Other research points to the necessity of applying a suite of interventions, including wetland restoration to mitigate meaningful quantities of nitrogen export. Here, we use process-based physical modeling to evaluate the effects of two hypothetical, but plausible large-scale wetland restoration programs intended to reduce nutrient export to the Gulf of Mexico. We show that full adoption of the two programs currently in place can meet as little as 10% to as much as 60% of nutrient reduction targets to reduce the Gulf of Mexico dead zone. These reductions are lower than prior estimates for three reasons. First, net storage of leachate in the subsurface precludes interception and thereby dampens the percent decline in nitrogen export caused by the policy. Unlike previous studies, we first constrained riverine fluxes to match observed fluxes throughout the basin. Second, the locations of many restorable lands are geographically disconnected from heavily fertilized croplands, limiting interception of runoff. Third, daily resolution of the model simulations captured the seasonal and stormflow dynamics that inhibit wetland nutrient removal because peak wetland effectiveness does not coincide with the timing of nutrient inputs. To improve the health of the Gulf of Mexico efforts to eliminate excess nutrient, loading should be implemented beyond the field-margin wetland strategies investigated here.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1855996
- PAR ID:
- 10515298
- Editor(s):
- Romanowicz, Barbara
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- PNAS Nexus
- Volume:
- 3
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 2752-6542
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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