Abstract Marine-terminating glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) have retreated, accelerated and thinned in response to climate change in recent decades. Ocean warming has been implicated as a trigger for these changes in glacier dynamics, yet little data exist near glacier termini to assess the role of ocean warming here. We use remotely-sensed iceberg melt rates seaward of two glaciers on the eastern and six glaciers on the western AP from 2013 to 2019 to explore connections between variations in ocean conditions and glacier frontal ablation. We find iceberg melt rates follow regional ocean temperature variations, with the highest melt rates (mean ≈ 10 cm d −1 ) at Cadman and Widdowson glaciers in the west and the lowest melt rates (mean ≈ 0.5 cm d −1 ) at Crane Glacier in the east. Near-coincident glacier frontal ablation rates from 2014 to 2018 vary from ~450 m a −1 at Edgeworth and Blanchard glaciers to ~3000 m a −1 at Seller Glacier, former Wordie Ice Shelf tributary. Variations in iceberg melt rates and glacier frontal ablation rates are significantly positively correlated around the AP (Spearman's ρ = 0.71, p -value = 0.003). We interpret this correlation as support for previous research suggesting submarine melting of glacier termini exerts control on glacier frontal dynamics around the AP.
more »
« less
Antarctic iceberg melt rate variability and sensitivity to ocean thermal forcing
Abstract Changes in iceberg calving fluxes and oceanographic conditions around Antarctica have likely influenced the spatial and temporal distribution of iceberg fresh water fluxes to the surrounding ocean basins. However, Antarctic iceberg melt rate estimates have been limited to very large icebergs in the open ocean. Here we use a remote-sensing approach to estimate iceberg melt rates from 2011 to 2022 for 15 study sites around Antarctica. Melt rates generally increase with iceberg draft and follow large-scale variations in ocean temperature: maximum melt rates for the western peninsula, western ice sheet, eastern ice sheet and eastern peninsula are ~50, ~40, ~5 and ~5 m a−1, respectively. Iceberg melt sensitivity to thermal forcing varies widely, with a best-estimate increase in melting of ~24 m a−1°C−1and range from near-zero to ~100 m a−1°C−1. Variations in water shear likely contribute to the apparent spread in thermal forcing sensitivity across sites. Although the sensitivity of iceberg melt rates to water shear prevents the use of melt rates as a proxy to infer coastal water mass temperature variability, additional coastal iceberg melt observations will likely improve models of Southern Ocean fresh water fluxes and have potential for subglacial discharge plume mapping.
more »
« less
- PAR ID:
- 10516075
- Publisher / Repository:
- IGS
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Glaciology
- ISSN:
- 0022-1430
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 11
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Observational evidence indicates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerated rate while ice sheet models highlight the potential for a significant ice collapse in the next century. The impacts of this large fresh water forcing on sea-ice formation, ocean circulation and climate could be significant, but to-date they have not been investigated using complex numerical models with realistic fresh water forcing and dynamical ice sheet models. Here, we present results from several climate model simulations performed under IPCC future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 with a high-resolution, fully coupled, ocean-atmosphere model (CESM 1.2). In each experiment, runoff from Antarctica is prescribed from a regional dynamic/thermodynamic ice sheet/shelf model. Our results highlight a significant rise in subsurface ocean temperatures (>1C) at the ice sheet grounding line that may accelerate rates of ice melt beyond those currently projected. In contrast, the increased runoff creates a cold surface layer that allows Antarctic sea ice to continue to expand through the end of the current century. It is vital that these processes are accounted for in the next generation of climate and ice sheet models.more » « less
-
Abstract. Frontal ablation has caused 32 %–66 % of Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss since 1972, and despite its importance in driving terminus change, ocean thermal forcing remains crudely incorporated into large-scale ice sheet models. In Greenland, local fjord-scale processes modify the magnitude of thermal forcing at the ice–ocean boundary but are too small scale to be resolved in current global climate models. For example, simulations used in the Ice Sheet Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) to predict future ice sheet change rely on the extrapolation of regional ocean water properties into fjords to drive terminus ablation. However, the accuracy of this approach has not previously been tested due to the scarcity of observations in Greenland fjords, as well as the inability of fjord-scale models to realistically incorporate icebergs. By employing the recently developed IceBerg package within the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), we here evaluate the ability of ocean thermal forcing parameterizations to predict thermal forcing at tidewater glacier termini. This is accomplished through sensitivity experiments using a set of idealized Greenland fjords, each forced with equivalent ocean boundary conditions but with varying tidal amplitudes, subglacial discharge, iceberg coverage, and bathymetry. Our results indicate that the bathymetric obstruction of external water is the primary control on near-glacier thermal forcing, followed by iceberg submarine melting. Despite identical ocean boundary conditions, we find that the simulated fjord processes can modify grounding line thermal forcing by as much as 3 °C, the magnitude of which is largely controlled by the relative depth of bathymetric sills to the Polar Water–Atlantic Water thermocline. However, using a common adjustment for fjord bathymetry we can still predict grounding line thermal forcing within 0.2 °C in our simulations. Finally, we introduce new parameterizations that additionally account for iceberg-driven cooling that can accurately predict interior fjord thermal forcing profiles both in iceberg-laden simulations and in observations from Kangiata Sullua (Ilulissat Icefjord).more » « less
-
Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt ratesAbstract Rift propagation, rather than basal melt, drives the destabilization and disintegration of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf. Since 2016, rifts have episodically advanced throughout the central ice-shelf area, with rapid propagation events occurring during austral spring. The ice shelf's speed has increased by ~70% during this period, transitioning from a rate of 1.65 m d−1in 2019 to 2.85 m d−1by early 2023 in the central area. The increase in longitudinal strain rates near the grounding zone has led to full-thickness rifts and melange-filled gaps since 2020. A recent sea-ice break out has accelerated retreat at the western calving front, effectively separating the ice shelf from what remained of its northwestern pinning point. Meanwhile, a distributed set of phase-sensitive radar measurements indicates that the basal melting rate is generally small, likely due to a widespread robust ocean stratification beneath the ice–ocean interface that suppresses basal melt despite the presence of substantial oceanic heat at depth. These observations in combination with damage modeling show that, while ocean forcing is responsible for triggering the current West Antarctic ice retreat, the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf is experiencing dynamic feedbacks over decadal timescales that are driving ice-shelf disintegration, now independent of basal melt.more » « less
-
Abstract Over the last 3.3 million years, the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has undergone phases of ice sheet growth and decay, impacting sea level and climate globally. Presently, the largely marine‐terminating AIS loses mass primarily by iceberg calving and basal melt of ice shelves. Quantifying past rates and timing of AIS melt is vital to understanding future cryosphere and sea level changes. One proxy for past ice sheet instabilities is iceberg rafted debris (IRD) fluxes. However, traditional methods of IRD quantification are labor‐intensive. Here, we present a new method of identifying IRD grains in sediment core X‐ray images using a convolutional neural network machine learning algorithm. We present a 3.3‐million‐year record of AIS IRD melt events using sediment cores from International Ocean Discovery Program Sites U1536, U1537, and U1538 in the Southern Ocean's “Iceberg Alley.” We identify two increases in the IRD fluxes throughout this period, at ∼1.8 and 0.43 Ma. We propose that after 1.8 Ma, the AIS expanded and transitioned from a primarily terrestrial‐terminating to a primarily marine‐terminating ice sheet. Therefore, after 1.8 Ma, glacial terminations and AIS iceberg discharge are associated with variations in global ice volume, presumably through the mechanism of sea level and, therefore, grounding line change. The second AIS regime change occurs during the Mid‐Brunhes Event (∼0.43 Ma). After this time, there are heightened and continuous IRD fluxes at each glacial termination, indicating increased AIS size and instability after this time.more » « less
An official website of the United States government

