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In coastal West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) waters, large phytoplankton blooms in late austral spring fuel a highly productive marine ecosystem. However, WAP atmospheric and oceanic temperatures are rising, winter sea ice extent and duration are decreasing, and summer phytoplankton biomass in the northern WAP has decreased and shifted toward smaller cells. To better understand these relationships, an Imaging FlowCytobot was used to characterize seasonal (spring to autumn) phytoplankton community composition and cell size during a low (2017–2018) and high (2018–2019) chlorophyllayear in relation to physical drivers (e.g., sea ice and meteoric water) at Palmer Station, Antarctica. A shorter sea ice season with early rapid retreat resulted in low phytoplankton biomass with a low proportion of diatoms (2017–2018), while a longer sea ice season with late protracted retreat resulted in the opposite (2018–2019). Despite these differences, phytoplankton seasonal succession was similar in both years: (1) a large‐celled centric diatom bloom during spring sea ice retreat; (2) a peak summer phase comprised of mixotrophic cryptophytes with increases in light and postbloom organic matter; and (3) a late summer phase comprised of small (< 20 μm) diatoms and mixed flagellates with increases in wind‐driven nutrient resuspension. In addition, cell diameter decreased from November to April with increases in meteoric water in both years. The tight coupling between sea ice, meltwater, and phytoplankton species composition suggests that continued warming in the WAP will affect phytoplankton seasonal dynamics, and subsequently seasonal food web dynamics.

The krill surplus hypothesis of unlimited prey resources available for Antarctic predators due to commercial whaling in the 20th century has remained largely untested since the 1970s. Rapid warming of the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) over the past 50 years has resulted in decreased seasonal ice cover and a reduction of krill. The latter is being exacerbated by a commercial krill fishery in the region. Despite this, humpback whale populations have increased but may be at a threshold for growth based on these human‐induced changes. Understanding how climate‐mediated variation in prey availability influences humpback whale population dynamics is critical for focused management and conservation actions. Using an 8‐year dataset (2013–2020), we show that inter‐annual humpback whale pregnancy rates, as determined from skin‐blubber biopsy samples (n = 616), are positively correlated with krill availability and fluctuations in ice cover in the previous year. Pregnancy rates showed significant inter‐annual variability, between 29% and 86%. Our results indicate that krill availability is in fact limiting and affecting reproductive rates, in contrast to the krill surplus hypothesis. This suggests that this population of humpback whales may be at a threshold for population growth due to prey limitations. As a result, continued warming and increased fishing along the WAP, which continue to reduce krill stocks, will likely impact this humpback whale population and other krill predators in the region. Humpback whales are sentinel species of ecosystem health, and changes in pregnancy rates can provide quantifiable signals of the impact of environmental change at the population level. Our findings must be considered paramount in developing new and more restrictive conservation and management plans for the Antarctic marine ecosystem and minimizing the negative impacts of human activities in the region.

Climate change is leading to phenological shifts across a wide range of species globally. Polar oceans are hotspots of rapid climate change where sea ice dynamics structure ecosystems and organismal life cycles are attuned to ice seasonality. To anticipate climate change impacts on populations and ecosystem services, it is critical to understand ecosystem phenology to determine species activity patterns, optimal environmental windows for processes like reproduction, and the ramifications of ecological mismatches. Since 1991, the Palmer Antarctica Long‐Term Ecological Research (LTER) program has monitored seasonal dynamics near Palmer Station. Here, we review the species that occupy this region as year‐round residents, seasonal breeders, or periodic visitors. We show that sea ice retreat and increasing photoperiod in the spring trigger a sequence of events from mid‐November to mid‐February, including Adélie penguin clutch initiation, snow melt, calm conditions (low winds and warm air/sea temperature), phytoplankton blooms, shallow mixed layer depths, particulate organic carbon flux, peak humpback whale abundances, nutrient drawdown, and bacterial accumulation. Subsequently, from May to June, snow accumulates, zooplankton indicator species appear, and sea ice advances. The standard deviation in the timing of most events ranged from ~20 to 45 days, which was striking compared with Adélie penguin clutch initiation that varied <1 week. In general, during late sea ice retreat years, events happened later (~5 to >30 days) than mean dates and the variability in timing was low (<20%) compared with early ice retreat years. Statistical models showed the timing of some events were informative predictors (but not sole drivers) of other events. From an Adélie penguin perspective, earlier sea ice retreat and shifts in the timing of suitable conditions or prey characteristics could lead to mismatches, or asynchronies, that ultimately influence chick survival via their mass at fledging. However, more work is needed to understand how phenological shifts affect chick thermoregulatory costs and the abundance, availability, and energy content of key prey species, which support chick growth and survival. While we did not detect many long‐term phenological trends, we expect that when sea ice trends become significant within our LTER time series, phenological trends and negative effects from ecological mismatches will follow.

Uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by the surface ocean is leading to global ocean acidification, but regional variations in ocean circulation and mixing can dampen or accelerate apparent acidification rates. Here we use a regional ocean model simulation for the years 1980 to 2013 and observational data to investigate how ocean fluctuations impact acidification rates in surface waters of the Gulf of Alaska. We find that large-scale atmospheric forcing influenced local winds and upwelling strength, which in turn affected ocean acidification rate. Specifically, variability in local wind stress curl depressed sea surface height in the subpolar gyre over decade-long intervals, which increased upwelling of nitrate- and dissolved inorganic carbon-rich waters and enhanced apparent ocean acidification rates. We define this sea surface height variability as the Northern Gulf of Alaska Oscillation and suggest that it can cause extreme acidification events that are detrimental to ecosystem health and fisheries.

The continental shelf of the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is characterized by strong along‐shore hydrographic gradients resulting from the distinct influences of the warm Bellingshausen Sea to the south and the cold Weddell Sea water flooding Bransfield Strait to the north. These gradients modulate the spatial structure of glacier retreat and are correlated with other physical and biochemical variability along the shelf, but their structure and dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, the magnitude, spatial structure, seasonal‐to‐interannual variability, and driving mechanisms of along‐shore exchange are investigated using the output of a high‐resolution numerical model and with hydrographic data collected in Palmer Deep. The analyses reveal a pronounced seasonal cycle of along‐shore transport, with a net flux (7.0 × 10⁵ m³/s) of cold water toward the central WAP (cWAP) in winter, which reverses in summer with a net flow (5.2 × 10⁵ m³/s) of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and modified CDW (mCDW) toward Bransfield Strait. Significant interannual variability is found as the pathway of a coastal current transporting Weddell‐sourced water along the WAP shelf is modulated by wind forcing. When the Southern Annual Mode (SAM) is positive during winter, stronger upwelling‐favorable winds dominate in Bransfield Strait, leading to offshore advection of the Weddell‐sourced water. Negative SAM leads to weaker upwelling‐ or downwelling‐favorable winds and enhanced flooding of the cWAP with cold water from Bransfield Strait. This process can result in significant (0.5°C below 200 m) cooling of the continental shelf around Palmer Station, highlighting that along‐shore exchange is critical in modulating the hydrographic properties along the WAP.

Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) are a cosmopolitan species and perform long annual migrations between low-latitude breeding areas and high-latitude feeding areas. Their breeding populations appear to be spatially and genetically segregated due to long-term, maternally inherited fidelity to natal breeding areas. In the Southern Hemisphere, some humpback whale breeding populations mix in Southern Ocean waters in summer, but very little movement between Pacific and Atlantic waters has been identified to date, suggesting these waters constituted an oceanic boundary between genetically distinct populations. Here, we present new evidence of summer co-occurrence in the West Antarctic Peninsula feeding area of two recovering humpback whale breeding populations from the Atlantic (Brazil) and Pacific (Central and South America). As humpback whale populations recover, observations like this point to the need to revise our perceptions of boundaries between stocks, particularly on high latitude feeding grounds. We suggest that this “Southern Ocean Exchange” may become more frequent as populations recover from commercial whaling and climate change modifies environmental dynamics and humpback whale prey availability.

Since the middle of the past century, the Western Antarctic Peninsula has warmed rapidly with a significant loss of sea ice but the impacts on plankton biodiversity and carbon cycling remain an open question. Here, using a 5-year dataset of eukaryotic plankton DNA metabarcoding, we assess changes in biodiversity and net community production in this region. Our results show that sea-ice extent is a dominant factor influencing eukaryotic plankton community composition, biodiversity, and net community production. Species richness and evenness decline with an increase in sea surface temperature (SST). In regions with low SST and shallow mixed layers, the community was dominated by a diverse assemblage of diatoms and dinoflagellates. Conversely, less diverse plankton assemblages were observed in waters with higher SST and/or deep mixed layers when sea ice extent was lower. A genetic programming machine-learning model explained up to 80% of the net community production variability at the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Among the biological explanatory variables, the sea-ice environment associated plankton assemblage is the best predictor of net community production. We conclude that eukaryotic plankton diversity and carbon cycling at the Western Antarctic Peninsula are strongly linked to sea-ice conditions.

Ocean phytoplankton play a critical role in the global carbon cycle, contributing ∼50% of global photosynthesis. As planktonic organisms, phytoplankton encounter significant environmental variability as they are advected throughout the ocean. How this variability impacts phytoplankton growth rates and population dynamics remains unclear. Here, we systematically investigated the impact of different rates and magnitudes of sea surface temperature (SST) variability on phytoplankton community growth rates using surface drifter observations from the Southern Ocean (>30°S) and a phenotype‐based ecosystem model. Short‐term SST variability (<7 days) had a minimal impact on phytoplankton community growth rates. Moderate SST changes of 3–4°C over 7–45 days produced a large time lag between the temperature change and the biological response. The impact of SST variability on community growth rates was nonlinear and a function of the rate and magnitude of change. Additionally, the nature of variability generated in a Lagrangian reference frame (following trajectories of surface water parcels) was larger than that within an Eulerian reference frame (fixed point), which initiated different phytoplankton responses between the two reference frames. Finally, we found that these dynamics were not captured by the Eppley growth model commonly used in global biogeochemical models and resulted in an overestimation of community growth rates, particularly in dynamic, strong frontal regions of the Southern Ocean. This work demonstrates that the timescale for environmental selection (community replacement) is a critical factor in determining community composition and takes a first step towards including the impact of variability and biological response times into biogeochemical models.

For the first time the annual carbon budget on the West Antarctic Peninsula shelf was studied with continuously measured CO₂system parameters (pH andpCO₂) from a subsurface mooring. The temporal evolution of the mixed layer dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) is investigated via a mass balance. The annual mixed layer DIC inventory change was 1.1 ± 0.4 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹, which was mainly regulated by biological drawdown (−2.8 ± 2.4 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹), diapycnal eddy diffusion (2.6 ± 1.3 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹), entrainment/detrainment (0.9 ± 0.4 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹), and air‐water gas exchange (0.4 ± 2.1 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹). Significant carbon drawdown was observed in the spring and summer, which was replenished by the physical processes mentioned above. These observations suggest this area is an annual atmosphere CO₂sink with a mixed layer net community production of 2.8 ± 2.4 mol m⁻² yr⁻¹. These results highlight the significant seasonality in the DIC mass balance and the necessity of year‐round continuous observations for robust assessments of biogeochemical cycling in this region.