More Like this

1. Opportunities for Transdisciplinary Science to Mitigate Biosecurity Risks From the Intersectionality of Illegal Wildlife Trade With Emerging Zoonotic Pathogens

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.604929  

   Aguirre, A. Alonso; Gore, Meredith L.; Kammer-Kerwick, Matt; Curtin, Kevin M.; Heyns, Andries; Preiser, Wolfgang; Shelley, Louise I. (February 2021, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution)

   null (Ed.)

   Existing collaborations among public health practitioners, veterinarians, and ecologists do not sufficiently consider illegal wildlife trade in their surveillance, biosafety, and security (SB&S) efforts even though the risks to health and biodiversity from these threats are significant. We highlight multiple cases to illustrate the risks posed by existing gaps in understanding the intersectionality of the illegal wildlife trade and zoonotic disease transmission. We argue for more integrative science in support of decision-making using the One Health approach. Opportunities abound to apply transdisciplinary science to sustainable wildlife trade policy and programming, such as combining on-the-ground monitoring of health, environmental, and social conditions with an understanding of the operational and spatial dynamics of illicit wildlife trade. We advocate for (1) a surveillance sample management system for enhanced diagnostic efficiency in collaboration with diverse and local partners that can help establish new or link existing surveillance networks, outbreak analysis, and risk mitigation strategies; (2) novel analytical tools and decision support models that can enhance self-directed local livelihoods by addressing monitoring, detection, prevention, interdiction, and remediation; (3) enhanced capacity to promote joint SB&S efforts that can encourage improved human and animal health, timely reporting, emerging disease detection, and outbreak response; and, (4) enhanced monitoring of illicit wildlife trade and supply chains across the heterogeneous context within which they occur. By integrating more diverse scientific disciplines, and their respective scientists with indigenous people and local community insight and risk assessment data, we can help promote a more sustainable and equitable wildlife trade. 

   more » « less
2. Identifying datasets for global wildlife trafficking

   https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7096921  

   Gore, Meredith; Keskin, Burcu; Macdonald, John; Ferber, Aaron; Griffin, Emily; Prell, Oakley; Dilkina, Bistra; Hilend, Rowan (January 2022, Zenodo)

   We describe a novel database on wildlife trafficking that can be used for exploring supply chain coordination via game-theoretic collaboration models, geographic spread of wildlife products trafficked via multi-item knapsack problems, or illicit network interdiction via multi-armed bandit problems.</p> A publicly available visualization of this dataset is available at: https://public.tableau.com/views/IWTDataDirectory-Gore/Sheet2?:language=en-US&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link 

   more » « less
3. Advancing interdisciplinary science for disrupting wildlife trafficking networks

   Gore, M.L. (January 2023, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America)

   Agrawal, A. (Ed.)

   Wildlife trafficking, whether local or transnational in scope, undermines sustainable development efforts, degrades cultural resources, endangers species, erodes the local and global economy, and facilitates the spread of zoonotic diseases. Wildlife trafficking networks (WTNs) occupy a unique gray space in supply chains—straddling licit and illicit networks, supporting legitimate and criminal workforces, and often demonstrating high resilience in their sourcing flexibility and adaptability. Authorities in different sectors desire, but frequently lack knowledge about how to allocate resources to disrupt illicit wildlife supply networks and prevent negative collateral impacts. Novel conceptualizations and a deeper scientific understanding of WTN structures are needed to help unravel the dynamics of interaction between disruption and resilience while accommodating socioenvironmental context. We use the case of ploughshare tortoise trafficking to help illustrate the potential of key advancements in interdisciplinary thinking. Insights herein suggest a significant need and opportunity for scientists to generate new science-based recommendations for WTN-related data collection and analysis for supply chain visibility, shifts in illicit supply chain dominance, network resilience, or limits of the supplier base. 

   more » « less
4. Modeling cocaine traffickers and counterdrug interdiction forces as a complex adaptive system

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1812459116  

   Magliocca, Nicholas R.; McSweeney, Kendra; Sesnie, Steven E.; Tellman, Elizabeth; Devine, Jennifer A.; Nielsen, Erik A.; Pearson, Zoe; Wrathall, David J. (April 2019, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Counterdrug interdiction efforts designed to seize or disrupt cocaine shipments between South American source zones and US markets remain a core US “supply side” drug policy and national security strategy. However, despite a long history of US-led interdiction efforts in the Western Hemisphere, cocaine movements to the United States through Central America, or “narco-trafficking,” continue to rise. Here, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model (ABM), called “NarcoLogic,” of narco-trafficker operational decision making in response to interdiction forces to investigate the root causes of interdiction ineffectiveness across space and time. The central premise tested was that spatial proliferation and resiliency of narco-trafficking are not a consequence of ineffective interdiction, but rather part and natural consequence of interdiction itself. Model development relied on multiple theoretical perspectives, empirical studies, media reports, and the authors’ own years of field research in the region. Parameterization and validation used the best available, authoritative data source for illicit cocaine flows. Despite inherently biased, unreliable, and/or incomplete data of a clandestine phenomenon, the model compellingly reproduced the “cat-and-mouse” dynamic between narco-traffickers and interdiction forces others have qualitatively described. The model produced qualitatively accurate and quantitatively realistic spatial and temporal patterns of cocaine trafficking in response to interdiction events. The NarcoLogic model offers a much-needed, evidence-based tool for the robust assessment of different drug policy scenarios, and their likely impact on trafficker behavior and the many collateral damages associated with the militarized war on drugs. 

   more » « less
5. Comparative Analysis of Illicit Supply Network Structure and Operations: Cocaine, Wildlife, and Sand

   https://doi.org/10.31389/jied.76  

   Magliocca, N.R.; Torres, A.; Margulies, J.D.; Carter, N.H.; Gore, M.; Arroyo-Quiroz, I.; Curtin, K.M.; Easter, T.S.; Hübschle, A.; Massé, F.; et al (October 2021, Journal of illicit economies and development)

   Illicit supply networks (ISNs) are composed of coordinated human actors that source, transit, and distribute illicitly traded goods to consumers, while also creating widespread social and environmental harms. Despite growing documentation of ISNs and their impacts, efforts to understand and disrupt ISNs remain insufficient due to the persistent lack of knowledge connecting a given ISN’s modus operandi and its patterns of activity in space and time. The core challenge is that the data and knowledge needed to integrate it remain fragmented and/or compartmentalized across disciplines, research groups, and agencies tasked with understanding or monitoring one or a few specific ISNs. One path forward is to conduct comparative analyses of multiple diverse ISNs. We present and apply a conceptual framework for linking ISN modus operandi to spatial-temporal dynamics and patterns of activity. We demonstrate this through a comparative analysis of three ISNs – cocaine, illegally traded wildlife, and illegally mined sand – which range from well-established to emergent, global to domestic in geographic scope, and fully illicit to de facto legal. The proposed framework revealed consistent traits related to geographic price structure, value capture at different supply chain stages, and key differences among ISN structure and operation related to commodity characteristics and their relative illicitness. Despite the diversity of commodities and ISN attributes compared, social and environmental harms inflicted by the illicit activity consistently become more widespread with increasing law enforcement disruption. Drawing on these lessons from diverse ISNs, which varied in their histories and current sophistication, possible changes in the structure and function of nascent and/or low salience ISNs may be anticipated if future conditions or law enforcement pressure change. 

   more » « less