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Abstract In response to global warming, ozone is predicted to increase aloft due to stratospheric cooling but decrease in the tropical lower stratosphere. The ozone reductions have been primarily attributed to a strengthening Brewer‐Dobson circulation, which upwells ozone‐poor air. Yet, this paper finds that strengthening upwelling only explains part of the reduction. The reduction is also driven by tropospheric expansion under global warming, which erodes the ozone layer from below, the low ozone anomalies from which are advected upwards. Strengthening upwelling and tropospheric expansion are correlated under global warming, making it challenging to disentangle their relative contributions. Therefore, chemistry‐climate model output is used to validate an idealized model of ozone photochemistry and transport with a tropopause lower boundary condition. In our idealized decomposition, strengthening upwelling and tropospheric expansion both contribute at leading order to reducing tropical ozone. Tropospheric expansion drives bottom‐heavy reductions in ozone, which decay in magnitude into the mid‐stratosphere.
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The Spillover of Tropospheric Ozone Increases Has Hidden the Extent of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion by Halogens
Abstract Stratospheric ozone depletion from halocarbons is partly countered by pollution‐driven increases in tropospheric ozone, with transport connecting the two. While recognizing this connection, the ozone assessment's evaluation of observations and processes have often split the chapters at the tropopause boundary. Using a chemistry‐transport model we find that air‐pollution ozone enhancements in the troposphere spill over into the stratosphere at significant rates, that is, 13%–34% of the excess tropospheric burden appears in the lowermost extra‐tropical stratosphere. As we track the anticipated recovery of the observed ozone depletion, we should recognize that two tenths of that recovery may come from the transport of increasing tropospheric ozone into the stratosphere.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2135749
- PAR ID:
- 10517765
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- AGU Advances
- Volume:
- 5
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2576-604X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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