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Title: Predicting peak inundation depths with a physics informed machine learning model
Abstract

Timely, accurate, and reliable information is essential for decision-makers, emergency managers, and infrastructure operators during flood events. This study demonstrates that a proposed machine learning model,MaxFloodCast, trained on physics-based hydrodynamic simulations in Harris County, offers efficient and interpretable flood inundation depth predictions. Achieving an average$$R^2$$R2of 0.949 and a Root Mean Square Error of 0.61 ft (0.19 m) on unseen data, it proves reliable in forecasting peak flood inundation depths. Validated against Hurricane Harvey and Tropical Storm Imelda,MaxFloodCastshows the potential in supporting near-time floodplain management and emergency operations. The model’s interpretability aids decision-makers in offering critical information to inform flood mitigation strategies, to prioritize areas with critical facilities and to examine how rainfall in other watersheds influences flood exposure in one area. TheMaxFloodCastmodel enables accurate and interpretable inundation depth predictions while significantly reducing computational time, thereby supporting emergency response efforts and flood risk management more effectively.

 
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Award ID(s):
1832662
PAR ID:
10518193
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Nature Publishing Group
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Scientific Reports
Volume:
14
Issue:
1
ISSN:
2045-2322
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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