Attention:The NSF Public Access Repository (PAR) system and access will be unavailable from 5:00 PM ET until 8:00 PM ET on Friday, September 11 due to maintenance. We apologize for the inconvenience.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


Title: Regional geographies and public health lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Arctic
ObjectivesThis study examines the COVID-19 pandemic’s spatiotemporal dynamics in 52 sub-regions in eight Arctic states. This study further investigates the potential impact of early vaccination coverage on subsequent COVID-19 outcomes within these regions, potentially revealing public health insights of global significance. MethodsWe assessed the outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic in Arctic sub-regions using three key epidemiological variables: confirmed cases, confirmed deaths, and case fatality ratio (CFR), along with vaccination rates to evaluate the effectiveness of the early vaccination campaign on the later dynamics of COVID-19 outcomes in these regions. ResultsFrom February 2020 to February 2023, the Arctic experienced five distinct waves of COVID-19 infections and fatalities. However, most Arctic regions consistently maintained Case Fatality Ratios (CFRs) below their respective national levels throughout these waves. Further, the regression analysis indicated that the impact of initial vaccination coverage on subsequent cumulative mortality rates and Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) was inverse and statistically significant. A common trend was the delayed onset of the pandemic in the Arctic due to its remoteness. A few regions, including Greenland, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, Northern Canada, Finland, and Norway, experienced isolated spikes in cases at the beginning of the pandemic with minimal or no fatalities. In contrast, Alaska, Northern Sweden, and Russia had generally high death rates, with surges in cases and fatalities. ConclusionAnalyzing COVID-19 data from 52 Arctic subregions shows significant spatial and temporal variations in the pandemic’s severity. Greenland, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, Northern Canada, Finland, and Norway exemplify successful pandemic management models characterized by low cases and deaths. These outcomes can be attributed to successful vaccination campaigns, and proactive public health initiatives along the delayed onset of the pandemic, which reduced the impact of COVID-19, given structural and population vulnerabilities. Thus, the Arctic experience of COVID-19 informs preparedness for future pandemic-like public health emergencies in remote regions and marginalized communities worldwide that share similar contexts.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2034886
PAR ID:
10524226
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Frontiers in Public Health
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Frontiers in Public Health
Volume:
11
ISSN:
2296-2565
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; et al (, PLOS Medicine)
    MacPherson, Peter (Ed.)
    BackgroundCoronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). Methods and findingsThe COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period.From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000–598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. ConclusionsCOVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year. 
    more » « less
  2. ; ; ; (, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)
    null (Ed.)
    The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 1,000,000 reported deaths globally, of which more than 200,000 have been reported in the United States as of October 1, 2020. Public health interventions have had significant impacts in reducing transmission and in averting even more deaths. Nonetheless, in many jurisdictions, the decline of cases and fatalities after apparent epidemic peaks has not been rapid. Instead, the asymmetric decline in cases appears, in most cases, to be consistent with plateau- or shoulder-like phenomena—a qualitative observation reinforced by a symmetry analysis of US state-level fatality data. Here we explore a model of fatality-driven awareness in which individual protective measures increase with death rates. In this model, fast increases to the peak are often followed by plateaus, shoulders, and lag-driven oscillations. The asymmetric shape of model-predicted incidence and fatality curves is consistent with observations from many jurisdictions. Yet, in contrast to model predictions, we find that population-level mobility metrics usually increased from low levels before fatalities reached an initial peak. We show that incorporating fatigue and long-term behavior change can reconcile the apparent premature relaxation of mobility reductions and help understand when post-peak dynamics are likely to lead to a resurgence of cases. 
    more » « less
  3. ; ; ; ; ; ; (, PLOS ONE)
    Stimpson, Jim P (Ed.)
    IntroductionThe Latinx population has the second highest COVID-19 death rate among racial/ethnic groups in the United States and less than half of Latinx youth aged 5–17 years old completed their COVID-19 primary vaccination series as of September 2022. COVID-19 vaccine misinformation detrimentally impacts vaccination rates. In this study, we examined factors that predicted Latinx youth COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and vaccination status. MethodsA community-based sample of 290 Latinx parent and adolescent dyads from a Southwestern metropolitan area of the United States who were recruited to complete an online survey at baseline at T1 (August 2020 –March 2021) and one year later. We tested a longitudinal mediation model in which we examined individual and family factors that would predict youth COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and vaccination status over time. ResultsYouth’s pandemic disbelief (i.e., the belief that the COVID-19 pandemic is a conspiracy or not real) predicted greater youth’s COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, and in turn, a lower likelihood of youth’s COVID-19 vaccination. Youth’s pandemic disbelief also predicted greater parent’s vaccination hesitancy which, in turn, predicted greater youth’s vaccination hesitancy and a lower likelihood of COVID-19 vaccination. Parents’ pandemic disbelief predicted their own COVID-19 hesitancy, but not youth hesitancy. DiscussionOur study findings provide initial evidence that general pandemic disbelief was a significant driver of vaccine hesitancy and vaccination among Latinx families. The study contributes to the limited research investigating COVID-19 vaccination in the Latinx community and among Latinx youth, further aiding how COVID-19 vaccine disparities can be mitigated among racial/ethnic populations. 
    more » « less
  4. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; et al (, JAMA Network Open)
    ImportanceCOVID-19 remains a disease with high burden in the US, prompting continued debate about optimal targets for annual vaccination. ObjectiveTo project COVID-19 burden in the US for April 2024 to April 2025 under 6 scenarios of immune escape (20% and 50% per year) and levels of vaccine recommendation (no recommendation, vaccination for individuals at high risk only, vaccination for all eligible groups) and to assess the potential benefit of vaccine recommendations in reducing disease burden. Design, Setting, and ParticipantsFor this decision analytical model, the US Scenario Modeling Hub, a collaborative modeling effort, convened 9 teams to provide scenario projections of US COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths for April 2024 to April 2025, under 6 scenarios combining levels of immune escape and possible vaccine recommendations. ExposureAnnually reformulated vaccines were assumed to be 75% effective against hospitalization for variants circulating on June 15, 2024, and available on September 1, 2024. Age- and state-specific coverage was assumed to be as reported in September 2023 to April 2024. Main Outcomes and MeasuresEnsemble estimates were made for weekly COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Projections are presented for relative and absolute prevented hospitalizations and deaths averted due to vaccination over the April 2024 to April 2025 period. ResultsFor the US population (332 million, with an estimated 58 million aged ≥65 years), COVID-19 was expected to cause 814 000 (95% projection interval [PI], 400 000-1.2 million) hospitalizations and 54 000 (95% PI, 17 000-98 000) deaths for April 2024 to April 2025, comparable in magnitude to the prior year. Vaccination of high-risk groups only was projected to reduce hospitalizations (compared to no vaccination recommendation) by 76 000 (95% CI, 34 000-118 000) and deaths by 7000 (95% CI, 3000-11 000) across both immune escape scenarios. Compared with vaccinating high-risk groups only, a universal vaccine recommendation was projected to provide direct and indirect benefits, further preventing 11 000 hospitalizations and 1000 deaths in those aged 65 years and older. Conclusions and RelevanceIn this decision analytical modeling study of COVID-19 burden in the US in 2024 to 2025, ensemble projections suggested that although vaccinating high-risk groups had substantial benefits in reducing disease burden, maintaining the vaccine recommendation for all individuals had the potential to save thousands more lives. Despite divergence of projections from observed disease trends in 2024 to 2025—possibly driven by variant emergence patterns and immune escape—averted COVID-19 burden due to vaccination was robust across immune escape scenarios, emphasizing the substantial benefit of broader vaccine availability for all individuals. 
    more » « less
  5. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; (, Open Access Government)
    Revolutionising disease detection: The emergence of non-invasive VOC breathomicsBreathomics marks a revolutionary approach to disease detection by analyzing the chemical composition of exhaled breath. As the world recovers from the recent global health crises, the detection and management of pandemic diseases like COVID-19, RSV, and flu have come to the forefront. The COVID-19 pandemic alone has affected over 96 million people in the US, with a devastating count of more than a million fatalities. Similarly, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza (flu) collectively burden the healthcare system with millions of cases annually, leading to hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations and tens of thousands of deaths. These staggering statistics underscore an urgent need for diagnostic methods that are not only swift and accurate but also non- invasive to facilitate rapid, widespread testing. Enter Breathomics—a revolutionary approach that analyzes the chemical composition of exhaled breath to detect diseases. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Text Encoded Conversion
  • XML
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email