An official website of the United States government
Abstract Earlier studies of land use land cover change (LULCC) normally used only a specified LULCC map with no interannual variations. In this study, using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) coupled with a land surface model, biophysical impacts of LULCC on global and regional climate are investigated by using a LULCC map which covers 63 years from 1948 to 2010 with interannual variation. A methodology has been developed to convert a recently developed LULCC fraction map with 1° × 1° resolution to the AGCM grid points in which only one dominant type is allowed. Comprehensive evaluations are conducted to ensure consistency of the trend of the original LULCC fraction change and the trend of the fraction of grid point changes over different regions. The model was integrated with a potential vegetation map (CTL) and the map with LULCC, in which a set of surface parameters such as leaf area index, albedo and other soil and vegetation parameters were accordingly changed with interannual variation. The results indicate that the interannual LULCC map simulation is able to reproduce better interannual variability of surface temperature and rainfall when compared to the control simulation. LULCC causes negative effect on global precipitation, with the strongest significant signals over degraded regions such as East Asia, West Africa and South America, and some of these changes are consistent with observed regional anomalies for certain time periods. LULCC causes reduction in net radiation and evapotranspiration which leads to changes in monsoon circulation and variation in magnitude and pattern of moisture flux convergence and subsequent reduction in precipitation. Meanwhile, LULCC enhances surface warming during the summer in the LULCC regions due to greatly reduced evapotranspiration. In contradiction to the surface, upper troposphere temperatures are cool because of less latent heat released into the upper troposphere, which leads to weaker circulation in LULCC regions.
more »
« less
Global and Regional Implications of Biome Evolution on the Hydrologic Cycle and Climate in the NCAR Dynamic Vegetation Model
Vegetation influences climate by altering water and energy budgets. With intensifying threats from anthropogenic activities, both terrestrial biomes and climate are expected to change, and the need to understand land–atmosphere interactions will become increasingly crucial. We ran a climate model coupled with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) to investigate the establishment of terrestrial biomes starting from a bareground scenario and how these biomes influence the climate throughout their evolution. Vegetation reaches quasi-equilibrium after ~350 years, and the vegetation establishment results in global increases in temperature (~2.5 °C), precipitation (~5.5%) and evapotranspiration as well as declines in albedo and sea ice volumes. In high latitude regions, vegetation establishment decreases albedo, causing an increase in global temperatures as well as a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Low latitude tropical afforestation results in greater evapotranspiration and precipitation, and an initial decrease in temperatures due to evaporative cooling.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1944545
- PAR ID:
- 10527717
- Publisher / Repository:
- MDPI
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Land
- Volume:
- 9
- Issue:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 2073-445X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 342
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Wildfires are essential to terrestrial ecosystems, playing a crucial role in nutrient and carbon cycles, particularly in highly seasonal environments like the Western Sahel. Their occurrence is linked to complex feedback mechanisms between climate, landscape structure, vegetation and the carbon cycle. It is therefore central to understand wildfire dynamics in the context of paleoclimatic and environmental change. Here we present a record of 3 to 7 ringed polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), from five targeted study windows throughout the last 25 million years from ODP Site 959 in the Gulf of Guinea. The time windows target the effects of orbital forcings of the West African Monsoon on wildfire and vegetation responses in different boundary conditions in the Oligocene, Miocene, Pliocene, and Pleistocene, including shifts in global temperatures, greenhouse gas concentrations, and regional land surface. Orbitally resolved PAH biomarkers can provide insight into fire activity and be coupled with changing precipitation patterns and biomes. We discuss PAH sources and how wildfire frequency is linked to the observed drying trend, climate variability, and vegetation expansion throughout the Cenozoic in the Western Sahel. These findings are central for understanding future wildfire dynamics in the vulnerable Western Sahel region in the light of global warming.more » « less
-
Abstract Responses of the terrestrial biosphere to rapidly changing environmental conditions are a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. In an effort to reduce this uncertainty, a wide range of global change experiments have been conducted that mimic future conditions in terrestrial ecosystems, manipulating CO2, temperature, and nutrient and water availability. Syntheses of results across experiments provide a more general sense of ecosystem responses to global change, and help to discern the influence of background conditions such as climate and vegetation type in determining global change responses. Several independent syntheses of published data have yielded distinct databases for specific objectives. Such parallel, uncoordinated initiatives carry the risk of producing redundant data collection efforts and have led to contrasting outcomes without clarifying the underlying reason for divergence. These problems could be avoided by creating a publicly available, updatable, curated database. Here, we report on a global effort to collect and curate 57,089 treatment responses across 3644 manipulation experiments at 1145 sites, simulating elevated CO2, warming, nutrient addition, and precipitation changes. In the resulting Manipulation Experiments Synthesis Initiative (MESI) database, effects of experimental global change drivers on carbon and nutrient cycles are included, as well as ancillary data such as background climate, vegetation type, treatment magnitude, duration, and, unique to our database, measured soil properties. Our analysis of the database indicates that most experiments are short term (one or few growing seasons), conducted in the USA, Europe, or China, and that the most abundantly reported variable is aboveground biomass. We provide the most comprehensive multifactor global change database to date, enabling the research community to tackle open research questions, vital to global policymaking. The MESI database, freely accessible atdoi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7153253, opens new avenues for model evaluation and synthesis‐based understanding of how global change affects terrestrial biomes. We welcome contributions to the database on GitHub.more » « less
-
null (Ed.)Abstract. Despite clear signals of regional impacts of the recent severe drought inCalifornia, e.g., within Californian Central Valley groundwater storage and Sierra Nevada forests, our understanding of how this drought affected soil moisture and vegetation responses in lowland grasslands is limited. In order to better understand the resulting vulnerability of these landscapes to fire and ecosystem degradation, we aimed to generalize drought-induced changes in subsurface soil moisture and to explore its effects within grassland ecosystems of Southern California. We used a high-resolution in situ dataset of climate and soil moisture from two grassland sites (coastal and inland), alongside greenness (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data from Landsat imagery, to explore drought dynamics in environments with similar precipitation but contrasting evaporative demand over the period 2008–2019. We show that negative impacts of prolonged precipitation deficits on vegetation at the coastal site were buffered by fog and moderate temperatures. During the drought, the Santa Barbara region experienced an early onset of the dry season in mid-March instead of April, resulting in premature senescence of grasses by mid-April. We developed a parsimonious soil moisture balance model that captures dynamic vegetation–evapotranspiration feedbacks and analyzed the links between climate, soil moisture, and vegetation greenness over several years of simulated drought conditions, exploring the impacts of plausible climate change scenarios that reflect changes to precipitation amounts, their seasonal distribution, and evaporative demand. The redistribution of precipitation over a shortened rainy season highlighted a strong coupling of evapotranspiration to incoming precipitation at the coastal site, while the lower water-holding capacity of soils at the inland site resulted in additional drainage occurring under this scenario. The loss of spring rains due to a shortening of the rainy season also revealed a greater impact on the inland site, suggesting less resilience to low moisture at a time when plant development is about to start. The results also suggest that the coastal site would suffer disproportionally from extended dry periods, effectively driving these areas into more extreme drought than previously seen. These sensitivities suggest potential future increases in the risk of wildfires under climate change, as well as increased grassland ecosystem vulnerability.more » « less
-
Boreal forests form the largest terrestrial biome globally. Climate change is expected to induce large changes in vegetation of high latitude ecosystems, but there is considerable uncertainty about where, when, and how those changes will occur. Such vegetation change produces major feedback to the climate system, including by modifying albedo (reflectivity). Our study used the LANDIS-II forest landscape model to project forest dynamics on four representative landscapes (1 M ha) for 280 years into the future under a range of climate scenarios across a broad latitudinal gradient in Siberia. The model estimated the albedo of the vegetation and any snow on each landscape grid-cell through time to quantify surface albedo change in response to climate change and disturbances. We found that the shortening of the snow-covered season (winter) decreased annual average albedo dramatically, and climate change facilitated the invasion of tundra by boreal trees in the northernmost landscape (reducing albedo in all seasons). However, in other landscapes, albedo increased in summer due to disturbances (fire, wind, insects, harvest), eliminating or reducing leaf area in the short-term, and in the mid-term by promoting more reflective forest types deciduous, light conifers). This increased albedo was somewhat ephemeral and under climate change was overwhelmed by the shortening of the snow-covered season that greatly reduced albedo. We conclude that the primary driver of the overall reflectivity of boreal ecosystems is not vegetation, but rather, the length of the snow-covered season. Because climate change is likely to dramatically shorten the snow season, the concurrent reduction of albedo has the potential to act as a powerful positive feedback for climate change. Managing natural and anthropogenic disturbances may be the only tool with potential to mitigate the reduction of albedo by climate change in boreal ecosystems because management to encourage more reflective forest types has relatively small effect.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3390/land9100342
