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A well-known exception to rising sea surface temperatures (SST) across the globe is the subpolar North Atlantic, where SST has been declining at a rate of 0.39 (± 0.23) K century−1 during the 1900–2017 period. This cold blob has been hypothesized to result from a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, observation-based evidence is used to suggest that local atmospheric forcing can also contribute to the century-long cooling trend. Specifically, a 100-year SST trend simulated by an idealized ocean model forced by historical atmospheric forcing over the cold blob region matches 92% (± 77%) of the observed cooling trend. The data-driven simulations suggest that 54% (± 77%) of the observed cooling trend is the direct result of increased heat loss from the ocean induced by the overlying atmosphere, while the remaining 38% is due to strengthened local convection. An analysis of surface wind eddy kinetic energy suggests that the atmosphere-induced cooling may be linked to a northward migration of the jet stream, which exposes the subpolar North Atlantic to intensified storminess.
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Disagreement on the North Atlantic Cold Blob Formation Mechanisms among Climate Models
Abstract Despite global warming, the sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic has decreased since the 1900s. This local cooling, known as the North Atlantic cold blob, signifies a unique role of the subpolar North Atlantic in uptaking heat and hence impacts downstream weather and climate. However, a lack of observational records and their constraints on climate models leave the North Atlantic cold blob formation mechanism inconclusive. Using simulations from phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we assess the primary processes driving the North Atlantic cold blob within individual models and whether the mechanisms are consistent across models. We show that 11 out of 32 models, which we call “Cold Blob” models, simulate the subpolar North Atlantic cooling over 1900–2014. Further analyzing the heat budget of the subpolar North Atlantic SST shows that models have distinct mechanisms of cold blob formation. While 4 of the 11 Cold Blob models indicate decreased oceanic heat transport convergence (OHTC) as the key mechanism, another four models suggest changes in radiative processes making predominant contributions. The contribution of OHTC and radiative processes is comparable in the remaining three models. Such a model disagreement on the mechanism of cold blob formation may be associated with simulated base-state Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength, which explains 39% of the intermodel spread in the contribution of OHTC to the simulated cold blob. Models with a stronger base-state AMOC suggest a greater role of OHTC, whereas those with a weaker base-state AMOC indicate that radiative processes are more responsible. This model discrepancy suggests that the cold blob formation mechanism diagnosed from single model should be interpreted with caution. Significance StatementThe mechanisms driving sea surface temperatures over the subpolar North Atlantic to cool since the 1900s remain uncertain due to the lack of direct observations. Here, we use a temperature change decomposition framework to dissect the historical trend of surface temperature simulated in multiple global climate models. The models diverge on whether the subpolar North Atlantic cooling is induced by reduced ocean heat transport convergence or altered radiative processes. Notably, the importance of ocean heat transport convergence is influenced by the simulated base-state strength of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the Irminger Sea’s mixed layer depth. This finding cautions against concluding the cooling mechanism from a single model and highlights a need for ongoing observations to constrain AMOC-related climate projection in the subpolar North Atlantic.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2232582
- PAR ID:
- 10527796
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Volume:
- 37
- Issue:
- 16
- ISSN:
- 0894-8755
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 4061-4078
- Size(s):
- p. 4061-4078
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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