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1. Underestimation of global O2 loss in optimally interpolated historical ocean observations

   Takamitsu Ito; Hernan E. Garcia; Zhankun Wang; Shoshiro Minobe; Matthew C. Long; Just, Cebrian; James Reagan; Tim Boyer; Christopher Paver; Courtney Bouchard; et al (January 2023, Biogeosciences)

   Abstract. The global ocean’s oxygen content has declined significantly over the past several decades and is expected to continue decreasing under global warming with far reaching impacts on marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling. Determining the oxygen trend, its spatial pattern and uncertainties from observations is fundamental to our understanding of20 the changing ocean environment. This study uses a suite of CMIP6 Earth System Models to evaluate the biases and uncertainties in oxygen distribution and trends due to sampling sparseness. Model outputs are sub-sampled according to the spatial and temporal distribution of the historical shipboard measurements, and an optimal interpolation method is applied to fill data gaps. Sub-sampled results are compared to full model output, revealing the biases in global and basin-wise oxygen content trends. The optimal interpolation underestimates the modeled global deoxygenation trends, capturing approximately25 two-thirds of the full model trends. North Atlantic and Subpolar North Pacific are relatively well sampled, and the optimal interpolation is capable of reconstructing more than 80% of the oxygen trend. In contrast, pronounced biases are found in the equatorial oceans and the Southern Ocean, where the sampling density is relatively low. Optimal interpolation of the historical dataset estimated the global oxygen loss of 1.5% over the past 50 years. However, the ratio of global oxygen trend between the subsampled and full model output, increases the estimated loss rate to 1.7 to 3.1% over the past 50 years, which partially30 overlaps with previous studies. The approach taken in this study can provide a framework for the intercomparison of different statistical gap-fill methods to estimate oxygen content trends and its uncertainties due to sampling sparseness. 

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2. Simulations of ocean deoxygenation in the historical era: insights from forced and coupled models

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1139917  

   Takano, Yohei; Ilyina, Tatiana; Tjiputra, Jerry; Eddebbar, Yassir A.; Berthet, Sarah; Bopp, Laurent; Buitenhuis, Erik; Butenschön, Momme; Christian, James R.; Dunne, John P.; et al (November 2023, Frontiers in Marine Science)

   Ocean deoxygenation due to anthropogenic warming represents a major threat to marine ecosystems and fisheries. Challenges remain in simulating the modern observed changes in the dissolved oxygen (O₂). Here, we present an analysis of upper ocean (0-700m) deoxygenation in recent decades from a suite of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ocean biogeochemical simulations. The physics and biogeochemical simulations include both ocean-only (the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 and 2, OMIP1 and OMIP2) and coupled Earth system (CMIP6 Historical) configurations. We examine simulated changes in the O₂inventory and ocean heat content (OHC) over the past 5 decades across models. The models simulate spatially divergent evolution of O₂trends over the past 5 decades. The trend (multi-model mean and spread) for upper ocean global O₂inventory for each of the MIP simulations over the past 5 decades is 0.03 ± 0.39×1014 [mol/decade] for OMIP1, −0.37 ± 0.15×10¹⁴[mol/decade] for OMIP2, and −1.06 ± 0.68×10¹⁴[mol/decade] for CMIP6 Historical, respectively. The trend in the upper ocean global O₂inventory for the latest observations based on the World Ocean Database 2018 is −0.98×10¹⁴[mol/decade], in line with the CMIP6 Historical multi-model mean, though this recent observations-based trend estimate is weaker than previously reported trends. A comparison across ocean-only simulations from OMIP1 and OMIP2 suggests that differences in atmospheric forcing such as surface wind explain the simulated divergence across configurations in O₂inventory changes. Additionally, a comparison of coupled model simulations from the CMIP6 Historical configuration indicates that differences in background mean states due to differences in spin-up duration and equilibrium states result in substantial differences in the climate change response of O₂. Finally, we discuss gaps and uncertainties in both ocean biogeochemical simulations and observations and explore possible future coordinated ocean biogeochemistry simulations to fill in gaps and unravel the mechanisms controlling the O₂changes. 

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3. Reconstructing ocean carbon storage with CMIP6 Earth system models and synthetic Argo observations

   https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1671-2023  

   Turner, Katherine E.; Smith, Doug M.; Katavouta, Anna; Williams, Richard G. (January 2023, Biogeosciences)

   Abstract. The ocean carbon store plays a vital role in setting the carbon response to emissions and variability in the carbon cycle. However, due to the ocean's strong regional and temporal variability, sparse carbon observations limit our understanding of historical carbon changes.Ocean temperature and salinity profiles are more widespread and rapidly expanding due to autonomous programmes, and so we explore how temperature and salinity profiles can provide information to reconstruct ocean carbon inventories with ensemble optimal interpolation. Here, ensemble optimal interpolation is used to reconstruct ocean carbon using synthetic Argo temperature and salinity observations, with examples for both the top 100 m and top 2000 m carbon inventories.When considering reconstructions of the top 100 m carbon inventory, coherent relationships between upper-ocean carbon, temperature, salinity, and atmospheric CO2 result in optimal solutions that reflect the controls of undersaturation, solubility, and alkalinity.Out-of-sample reconstructions of the top 100 m show that, in most regions, the trend in ocean carbon and over 60 % of detrended variability can be reconstructed using local temperature and salinity measurements, with only small changes when considering synthetic profiles consistent with irregular Argo sampling.Extending the method to reconstruct the upper 2000 m reveals that model uncertainties at depth limit the reconstruction skill.The impact of these uncertainties on reconstructing the carbon inventory over the upper 2000 m is small, and full reconstructions with historical Argo locations show that the method can reconstruct regional inter-annual and decadal variability.Hence, optimal interpolation based on model relationships combined with hydrographic measurements can provide valuable information about global ocean carbon inventory changes. 

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4. 20th century cooling of the deep ocean contributed to delayed acceleration of Earth’s energy imbalance

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24472-3  

   Bagnell, A.; DeVries, T. (December 2021, Nature Communications)

   Abstract The historical evolution of Earth’s energy imbalance can be quantified by changes in the global ocean heat content. However, historical reconstructions of ocean heat content often neglect a large volume of the deep ocean, due to sparse observations of ocean temperatures below 2000 m. Here, we provide a global reconstruction of historical changes in full-depth ocean heat content based on interpolated subsurface temperature data using an autoregressive artificial neural network, providing estimates of total ocean warming for the period 1946-2019. We find that cooling of the deep ocean and a small heat gain in the upper ocean led to no robust trend in global ocean heat content from 1960-1990, implying a roughly balanced Earth energy budget within −0.16 to 0.06 W m −2 over most of the latter half of the 20th century. However, the past three decades have seen a rapid acceleration in ocean warming, with the entire ocean warming from top to bottom at a rate of 0.63 ± 0.13 W m −2 . These results suggest a delayed onset of a positive Earth energy imbalance relative to previous estimates, although large uncertainties remain. 

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5. Optimal interpolation of global dissolved oxygen: 1965–2015

   https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.130  

   Ito, Takamitsu (January 2021, Geoscience Data Journal)

   null (Ed.)

   Oxygen inventory of the global ocean has declined in recent decades potentially due to the warming-induced reduction in solubility as well as the circulation and biogeochemical changes associated with ocean warming and increasing stratification. Earth System Models predict continued oxygen decline for this century with profound impacts on marine ecosystem and fisheries. Observational constraint on the rate of oxygen loss is crucial for assessing the ability of models to accurately simulate these changes. There are only a few observational assessments of the global oceanic oxygen inventory reporting a range of oxygen loss. This study develops a gridded data set of dissolved oxygen for the global oceans using optimal interpolation method. The resulting gridded product includes full-depth map of dissolved oxygen as 5-year moving average from 1965 to 2015 with uncertainty estimates. The uncertainty can come from unresolved small-scale and high-frequency variability and mapping errors. The multi-decadal trend of global dissolved oxygen is in the range of −281 to −373 Tmol/decade. This estimate is more conservative than previous works. In this study, the grid points far from the observations are essentially set equal to zero anomaly from the climatology. Calculating global inventory with this approach produces a relatively conservative estimate; thus, the results from this study likely provide a useful lower bound estimate of the global oxygen loss. 

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