Non-profit hunger relief organizations rely on the goodwill of donors for their in-kind cash, food donations and other supplies to alleviate hunger, reduce human suffering and save lives. However, these organizations struggle with changing demand and supply patterns, disruptions caused by very low donations even though they must make strategic
distribution decisions. Food distribution forecasts based on times series models can be useful for these decisions. Yet, it is plausible that food distribution by hunger relief organizations (and demand by the people in need) are driven by certain underlying factors. In this research, we used Visual Analytics (VA) to study the effect of certain underlying factors on the forecast generated for food distribution to the aid recipients. Specifically, we used already tested forecasting techniques to predict the expected quantity of distributed food for the underlying factors identified.
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This content will become publicly available on July 1, 2025
Predicting and optimizing the fair allocation of donations in hunger relief supply chains
Non-profit hunger relief organizations primarily depend on donors’ benevolence to help
alleviate hunger in their communities. However, the quantity and frequency of donations
they receive may vary over time, thus making fair distribution of donated supplies
challenging. This paper presents a hierarchical forecasting methodology to determine the
quantity of food donations received per month in a multi-warehouse food aid network.
We further link the forecasts to an optimization model to identify the fair allocation
of donations, considering the network distribution capacity in terms of supply chain
coordination and flexibility. The results indicate which locations within the network
are under-served and how donated supplies can be allocated to minimize the deviation
between overserved and underserved counties.
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- PAR ID:
- 10529205
- Publisher / Repository:
- Elsevier B.V.
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- International Journal of Forecasting
- ISSN:
- 0169-2070
- Subject(s) / Keyword(s):
- Hunger relief Food donations Equitable distribution State-space models Hierarchical Forecasting
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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